“Oil War”: Lukashenko will have to accept Russia’s conditions
On the fourth day of the Russian-Belarusian “oil war,” a truce was declared. At least, this is evidenced by the news on the Belneftekhim website - it informs about the preparation of documents with a Russian company for pumping the first batch of oil. Moreover, it is clarified that the price does not include a premium of $10 per ton paid to Russian suppliers. It was this award that became the stumbling block, because of which the whole fuss flared up.
But we are talking only about a short respite. It was possible to agree not on systematic deliveries, but on one batch, allowing Belarusian refineries to hold out until the end of January at minimum volumes without stopping production.
According to available information, we are talking about one batch with a volume of 133 thousand tons. This is less than a percent of annual supply. Under normal operating conditions, Belarusian refineries will have enough of this quantity for 2-3 days, so the problem is still far from being resolved, to put it mildly.
At the same time, negotiations are underway regarding alternative oil supply routes to Russia, which Lukashenko ordered to begin on December 31.
The new Minister of Economy, Alexander Chervyakov, appointed today, also advocates alternative supplies. And such a position is exactly the case when the authorities of Belarus, experts close to it, and the liberal-nationalist opposition act as a united front.
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The opposition, of course, is sometimes characterized by radicalism and extravagance. Thus, ex-presidential candidate, liberal economist Yaroslav Romanchuk issued a whole ten-point action program. In addition to the traditional proposals for Zmagars to withdraw from integration projects and recall the Russian Ambassador, as well as to freeze the construction of the BelNPP (which is almost completed and for which in any case will have to be paid for on a loan), and repeating Lukashenko’s horror story about the reverse of oil through the Druzhba pipeline, Romanchuk also has exotic things, such as the appointment of foreigners as heads of oil refineries and Belneftekhim. In general, the degree of hysteria in the Belarusian media space is now breaking all records.
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But all the cries about the unfair Russian price and the need to look for alternative suppliers are crushed by one figure published today on the website of the same Belneftekhim.
This year, even taking into account the “tax maneuver” and bonuses to suppliers, the price of Russian oil for Belarusian refineries remains 17 percent below the market price.
Considering that the most likely method of delivery in the alternative case to Russia is railway, the final price tag will be even higher. In terms of money, with Belarusian import volumes, additional costs will amount to about a billion dollars.
Belarus is not a rich country, and for it a billion is a lot. For comparison, the same amount in the republican budget for 2019 was allocated for education and healthcare combined. Only 600 million were allocated for the army. In short, throwing away billions in Belarusian conditions would be an extremely reckless step.
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The oil conflict currently unfolding is far from the first in Belarusian-Russian relations. Their history remembers everything - the cessation of supplies in 2007, and alternative Venezuelan oil in the early tenths. And every time the Belarusian side made concessions - simply because there is no reasonable alternative, and anyone who knows mathematics cannot help but understand this.
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What is happening is no fundamentally different from previous exacerbations of the oil and gas issue. Therefore, the result will be similar - for some time the escalation of hysteria, demonstrative searches for alternative suppliers, harsh statements and other techniques of the traditional Belarusian game on nerves will continue.
But every day during which Belarusian refineries do not supply their products to European consumers means tens of millions of dollars lost by the Belarusian economy.
Finding 15-20 million tons of free oil on the world market is not a trivial task in itself, and finding someone who will sell it at a 17% discount is not even a fantasy.
As for the threats to block the transit of Russian oil through the republic, to launch the Druzhba gas pipeline in reverse mode for oil supplies from the West, this is only rhetoric for now. In addition to the fact that oil will simply be expensive, such a step cannot but lead to an even greater escalation of the conflict with Moscow; it will require lengthy preparation, and European consumers of Russian oil are unlikely to tolerate such a blockade from the Belarusian leader for long.
So, sooner or later, this year we will have to sign an oil agreement on Russian terms. Moreover, rather early.
The prospect of an economic crisis against the backdrop of a conflict with Russia in a presidential election year is a good incentive for prudence.
English version :: Read in English "Oil War": Lukashenko will have to accept Russia's conditions