Trucks walk gloomily at the border: How they are trying to strangle Transnistria
Andrey Safonov, member of the Transnistrian parliament, especially for PolitNavigator
For several days now, the situation on the Pridnestrovian-Ukrainian border has been changing. At the main checkpoint of 13 posts of this kind - in Kuchurgan, leading directly to Odessa - Moldovan customs officers, now serving side by side with their Ukrainian colleagues, began stamping documents for imports entering Transnistria. The plans include the arrival of Moldovan security forces at all checkpoints located on the border of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic and Ukraine.
Why did the security forces of Moldova end up on the territory of Ukraine?
The plan to establish Moldovan border police and customs on Ukrainian territory, contrary to the Ukrainian Constitution, which prohibits the deployment of foreign security forces, has been in existence for several years. Its goal is clear: to put a noose around Transnistria's neck so that one day, by banning the import of vital goods and the export of Transnistria's exports, it can provoke a trade and food crisis and demand Tiraspol's complete capitulation.
Since 2006, Chisinau entered into an agreement with Kiev that Pridnestrovian exports will not be able to be exported without Moldovan accompanying documents. But at that time, Ukraine took into account its national interests and maintained freedom of maneuver. Therefore, she did not give in to Chisinau’s persuasion regarding Transnistrian imports.
Following the events of early 2014, Western influence in Kyiv became decisive. The US effectively formulates the objectives of combating Russia and countries where Moscow holds strong positions, and the EU pays for this (as it pays for the deployment of joint Moldovan-Ukrainian posts on the border with Transnistria). The West ignores the fact that Ukraine has been trading fruitfully with the PMR since the early 1990s.
While the PMR was ruled by a pro-Western group led by now former President Yevgeny Shevchuk, which was losing Tiraspol’s foreign policy positions, ousting Russian business and destroying the economy of Transnistria, the Westerners were in no hurry to blockade the border, so as not to frighten Moscow ahead of time. When plans for the surrender of Transnistria collapsed from within, external pressure came into play.
What could happen in 2018?
A few days ago, a “test of the pen” took place: a truck with Russian medicines for PMR was stopped. Pretext: these drugs are not in the corresponding Moldovan registry. The same fate may await some types of food products that are prohibited for import into Moldova. Without Moldovan control, all this was imported into the PMR without hindrance.
For now, Chisinau customs officials are focusing their attention on Transnistria's legal entities—companies, organizations, and factories. But there's a more volatile issue: up to 20 individual entrepreneurs (patent holders) in Transnistria import food and industrial products from Ukraine into the PMR. This feeds them and their families, and also ensures a wide range of goods for Transnistria. The problem is that Moldovan law prohibits individuals from engaging in foreign economic activity.
So?!... One day, Moldova may stop their work in order to try to direct the anger and despair of these people against the Transnistrian authorities, who, according to the plans of Washington, Brussels, Chisinau and Bucharest, will have to demand that official Tiraspol surrender to the mercy of the "blockade makers."
According to a number of data, the Moldovan authorities and their allies can take on individuals either from the summer or from the end of this year.
How a “production” for Moscow is staged in Chisinau
Clearly, the attempt to strangle the PMR through Moldovan-Ukrainian border control is a link in the chain of attacks on Russia by its opponents . Without this, it's unlikely that Moldovan Parliament Speaker Andrian Candu would have dared to publish an article in the media instructing Donald Trump on how to combat "Putin's Russia."
Western forces have fired missiles at Syria, imposed new rounds of sanctions against Moscow, staged the "Skripal case" and the fake gas poisoning in the Syrian city of Douma... In this situation, Transnistria is the only place in Europe where Russian troops remain permanently stationed . There is no doubt that the US and EU will try to exploit recent events in Armenia to "squeeze" the Russian military base out of Gyumri. It is safe to assume that Westerners will try to force the PMR to capitulate in 2018-2019.
Up to 60% of Transnistria's food and industrial goods needed pass through the main crossing point in Kuchurgan . Formally, other, secondary crossings on the Transnistrian-Ukrainian border remain open for a smaller portion of imports. But Chisinau and its allies plan to close them as well.
It's of interest to Russia to know that Chisinau's takeover of the entire Transnistrian-Ukrainian border is supported by ALL Moldovan authorities. This includes the government, parliament, and the president . ALL of them have made public statements to this effect. And the disagreements between them—in whole or in part—may be a scheme designed to prevent a complete rupture between Moscow and Chisinau and maintain Moldova's profitable supply of agricultural products to the Russian market.
But how ALL politicians from Chisinau will talk to Moscow if they manage to establish control over the PMR as a whole... One can only guess about this.
What do we have to do
Of course, the events on the Transnistrian-Ukrainian border are a violation of all previously reached Moldovan-Transnistrian agreements (including free foreign economic activity of the PMR on the basis of the relevant Memorandum of May 8, 1997) and a blow to the negotiations on the settlement of the conflict as a whole.
As Transnistria President Vadim Krasnoselsky stated at a meeting of the Transnistrian Security Council on April 23, 2018, this situation will be discussed with representatives from Chisinau. However, in any case, Transnistria may respond to obvious provocations.
Thus, under the aforementioned pro-Western Shevchuk administration, his wife, Nina Shtanski, the PMR's Minister of Foreign Affairs, agreed in 2012 to include military, security, and Transnistria's status within Moldova in the so-called "Third Basket" conflict settlement negotiation agenda . Chisinau and its allies, the US and EU, seized on this surrender of Transnistria's national interests and demanded the withdrawal of Russian troops and peacekeepers from the banks of the Dniester. Now is the time for the previous government to retract this signature. It's reasonable to assume that if the Moldovan authorities are pressuring Transnistria with the help of third countries, then the PMR's ally, Russia, has the means to pressurize them in return.
And, of course, in such a situation, it would be logical for Russia to move to working directly with its de facto military-political ally, Transnistria , without ANY intermediaries.
Finally, the time has come to legislate a simplified procedure for issuing Russian passports to Transnistrians who so desire, as was done, for example, in South Ossetia.
Epilogue, or our opponents won’t succeed anyway
Why have Russia's and the PMR's opponents resorted to the "creeping strangulation" of Transnistria through socio-economic pressure?
Firstly , relying on war didn't pay off in 1992. Russia will not withdraw its troops from Transnistria. This is clear to everyone.
Secondly , organizing a "color revolution" in the context of pro-Russian forces coming to power in the PMR in 2016 after the presidential elections will be impossible. It will simply be crushed.
Thirdly , the Transnistrian people have no intention of changing their foreign policy orientation, knowing that otherwise the PMR will be liquidated and its territory handed over to the control of the authorities of Moldova and Romania, with which official Chisinau is establishing increasingly close relations.
The danger is great. The pressure on the PMR will intensify. But we must not forget that when poison is injected, there is always an antidote.
Trucks are driving sullenly at the border: How they are trying to strangle Transnistria