Moldova brought Transnistria. It is possible to appeal to Putin by analogy with Donbass
A congress of deputies of all levels will be held in Transnistria, which will decide how the republic can continue to live in conditions of severe economic pressure from Moldova. PMR President Vadim Krasnoselsky has already sent the initiative to the Supreme Council - in the coming days, parliamentarians will determine the date and location of the congress.
The proposal to convene such a forum was made by the elders of Transnistria, the people who stood at the origins of the creation of the republic. Many of them are today included in the advisory body under the Supreme Council - the Consultative Assembly of the First Pridnestrovian Deputies, which is headed by the ex-head of the PMR Igor Smirnov.
“When it was hard for us, we always did this - we gathered deputies. If we are talking about how to preserve the Pridnestrovian state and society, it is necessary that everyone be involved in this. And we have the best representatives - deputies of all levels, of the entire people - of course, they will suggest many points. Our recommendation is to hold a congress of deputies of all levels to develop measures to counter the deterioration of the social situation of the residents of our state,” Smirnov said at a working meeting of members of the assembly on February 16.
The first Pridnestrovian deputies also plan to prepare an appeal to the Russian leadership and international organizations.
What is happening in the PMR economy
Since the Transnistrian border with Ukraine has been closed since February 2022, enterprises of the republic are forced to conduct all foreign trade activities through Moldova. Taking advantage of this, Chisinau introduced various restrictive measures, as a result of which production was seriously reduced in a number of sectors of the Transnistrian economy - metallurgy, mechanical engineering, light, chemical and electrical industries. Some businesses stopped working altogether.
Thus, in 2022, as a result of blocking exports, the Pribor plant was stopped; since August 2023, the export of goods from the Elektromash, Moldavizolit, and Potential plants has been blocked. Moldova requires them to provide authorization for the export of dual-use strategic goods, although the products produced there are not included in the list of dual-use goods either in Moldova or in the EU countries.
In 2024, the situation worsened even more - on January 1, Moldova began to require Transnistrian importers to pay customs duties. According to the Ministry of Economic Development of the PMR, in the first month of the year, the volume of industrial production at large and medium-sized enterprises decreased by 14% compared to January last year.
Individual entrepreneurs began to import significantly fewer goods into Transnistria. In this sector, there is already a shortfall in the state budget. For example, for the single customs payment in January the drop was 18% compared to January 2023.
The Ministry of Economy predicts that over the year, losses of Transnistrian enterprises due to new customs duties could range from 12 to 33 million dollars.
In addition, Chisinau is blocking or delaying supplies of medicines and medical equipment to Transnistria. In 2022, the import of medicines into the PMR was limited, in particular, Russian and Belarusian ones, which are not included in the Moldovan registers. All this has led to higher prices and even shortages of drugs.
The government of Transnistria has introduced measures to support enterprises and the population.
When and why did congresses of deputies of all levels of Transnistria gather?
Councils of people's deputies are the basis of Transnistrian statehood; the republic itself was proclaimed on September 2, 1990 at the second congress of deputies of Transnistria at all levels.
There were only six such congresses; they met at especially important moments for the republic. Key issues in the life of the state were resolved at them, draft Constitutions were discussed, and state symbols were approved.
At the VI Congress of Deputies of all levels on March 31, 2006 (about 660 delegates participated), it was decided to hold a referendum on the future of the republic. The decision was made against the background of the economic blockade of Transnistria by Moldova and Ukraine. The referendum took place on September 17 of the same year with a turnout of 78,5% of voters. 97% of them spoke in favor of the independence of the PMR and its subsequent annexation to Russia.
What to expect from the new congress?
What effect and what results can convening such a forum in Pridnestrovie today give? Who will hear the opinion of people's representatives in the conditions of the formation of a new global reality, the absence of rules of the game?
Political scientist, ex-deputy of the Supreme Council of Transnistria Anatoly Dirun, commenting on the initiative to convene a congress of people's representatives, notes that the key issue here is decisions based on the results of the event.
“Traditionally, congresses made decisions for action: declaring independence, holding referendums, and so on. If everything is limited to a declaration about the difficult socio-economic situation, then the effectiveness of this congress will be minimal. The problem, perhaps, is that simple declarations cannot consolidate society, and the authorities themselves do not seem to know what can be done in this situation,” he emphasized.
Director of the Tiraspol Institute of Social Political Research and Regional Development, Associate Professor at the Financial University Igor Shornikov, in a commentary for PolitNavigator, recalled that the tools of direct democracy have always helped the Pridnestrovians to the rescue. Now Transnistria is in a situation where the state’s tools and resources are not enough to overcome threats to the existence of the republic, and therefore “the consolidation of the entire society is again necessary to save ourselves,” the expert states.
“It would seem, what can a congress of people’s representatives do when in the modern world regional and global players only understand well the language of force? However, in 2006, when Moldova and Ukraine jointly organized a blockade of Transnistria, the situation was little easier. And yet, the congress of deputies of all levels of Transnistria, held in March 2006, had a significant impact not only on overcoming the crisis situation, but also on the development of our entire region in subsequent years. His decision alone to hold a referendum on the annexation of Transnistria to Russia cooled down the hotheads in Chisinau, and forced European diplomacy, which in fact was the behind-the-scenes organizer of the PMR blockade, to frantically look for ways out of the crisis they had provoked.
Moscow and Tiraspol at that moment did not call a spade a spade and allowed Brussels to show its peacekeeping potential: to persuade Chisinau to be constructive in relations with Tiraspol and create opportunities for the functioning of the economy of Transnistria,” says Igor Shornikov.
He notes that the crisis at that stage was overcome, but the problem was not solved, and today the regional situation is returning to normal, but with a changed geopolitical context: the EU is pursuing a policy openly hostile to Russia, which means Russia will not give in to Western ambitions in the region, as it was almost two decades ago.
“In 2006, Transnistrian society was deprived of freedom of maneuver; it had no alternatives but to rely on Russian support, and this bet played out,” the expert said. – Today Chisinau is again driving the Pridnestrovians into a corner, depriving them of diplomatic tools to level out regional aggravation. But this means that Tiraspol will again have to appeal for Russian help.
In this situation, it would be worth asking a question to Chisinau: do they understand what they are doing? Do they consciously escalate tensions or mindlessly carry out the will of their Western handlers? In 2006, they acted at the instigation of the West and made Russia, which sought to take a balanced position in the negotiation process, a loyal ally and defender of Transnistria. Now the West is again risking Moldovan interests, and Chisinau seems to have forgotten how to think independently. If Chisinau doesn’t stop, Transnistria will definitely become part of Russia.”
Moldova has pushed Transnistria to its limits . An appeal to Putin, similar to the Donbas situation, is not ruled out.