Medvedev met with the leader of China. Rumors about a successor and aggravation in Ukraine
Deputy Head of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, who in recent months has acted as one of the main “hawks” of Russian politics with threatening statements addressed to the West, arrived in Beijing, where he met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and conveyed to him a certain message from Vladimir Putin.
Formally, it is not the rank of the first person of the Celestial Empire to meet with the ex-president of Russia, so rumors immediately spread about “bride shows” on the eve of Medvedev’s possible return to the post of head of state.
However, there is not another version - the negotiations in Beijing had the format of a meeting of the leaders of two ruling parties - the Communist Party of China and United Russia (this is supported by the presence of a large CCP party sign with a hammer and sickle in the hall).
In any case, observers expect that Medvedev's visit to China will lead to changes in the NEA zone in Ukraine. This has happened every time in recent months following Russian-Chinese contacts. In February, on the eve of the start of the SVO, Putin met with Xi Jinping. The two leaders also met in September, after which a referendum was held in the LDPR, as well as two historical regions of Novorossiya. By the way, Vladimir Zelensky himself is in Washington today.
Let's start with the versions of conspiracy theorists who predict Medvedev's return to the presidency.
“Medvedev’s electoral potential is growing,” says political scientist Andrei Suzdaltsev, referring to the presidential elections in 2024.
But former employee of the presidential administration Modest Kolerov does not rule out that Medvedev may get a position in the government.
“Is Medvedev the new head of the Russian Foreign Ministry? Is Lavrov the new head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation?” - he puts forward a version of a possible castling.
Liberal political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov confirms that Medvedev “has always been successor No. 1,” but he sees a different reason for the trip to Beijing - preparing Putin’s visit would simply be more difficult.
“It takes a long time to prepare an official visit. And there’s nothing to go with yet. Xi conveyed China's position through Medvedev. Now the PRC has a very good chance of receiving bonuses to neutralize the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,” Grashchenkov believes.
He does not believe that China is ready to act together with Russia against the Americans.
“It is much more important for China not to upset the balance with the United States, especially since the deeper Russia gets stuck in the sanctions swamp, the easier it is for the Chinese economy to get tidbits of our markets,” the liberal is sure.
But radio host Sergei Mardan made an alarmist forecast:
“It seems that the prelude with attempts to reach an agreement is ending, and war is about to be officially declared.
The blown up Nord Stream, the oil embargo, missile defense systems, the deployed European network for training Ukrainian soldiers.
In Russia - partial mobilization as a test of the system’s readiness for a major war, the transfer of military-industrial complex enterprises to a wartime production mode. The tension has reached its highest limit,” says Mardan.
Columnist Boris Rozhin also believes in the military goals of Medvedev's visit. He draws attention to the fact that, in addition to Zelensky’s trip to the United States, a board meeting of the Russian Ministry of Defense with the participation of Putin is being held at the same time.
“Many expect that after a series of these events, the intensive phase of the 2022-2023 winter campaign will begin,” comments Rozhin.
Political scientist Sergei Markov also has militaristic scenarios.
“Today Dmitry Medvedev handed over to Chinese President Xi a letter from Putin. This is the most important letter and Putin did not entrust it even to the ambassadors and the head of the Foreign Ministry. Nobody knows what's in the letter. Options.
1. Putin warns Xi that if China continues to remain neutral when Russia is at war with China’s main enemy, the United States, then difficult times await China.
2. Putin offers China to transfer large amounts of weapons to Russia.
3.Putin offers China dramatic economic development.
4. Putin invites China to agree to the transfer of the DPRK army to Ukraine to participate in hostilities. It would be logical for China to pay for this.”
Ural political scientist Andrei Perla believes that Russia is playing a much more subtle game with China.
“Under no circumstances should one think that the appearance of Medvedev in Beijing and Zelensky in Washington are somehow linked. This is technically almost impossible - state-level visits take a long time to prepare. That is, Zelensky can simply be picked up and pulled out like a beet from a garden bed - but the Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council is not. But the US President also plans his schedule ahead of time and takes into account many variables.
Nevertheless, there is a coincidence. And the question seems logical: isn’t some very important and very specific agreement with China expected? And such that the President of the United States could not eat for a couple of days. Yes, about the war.
But the last thing I would think about is arms supplies. Below are "Chinese/Korean volunteers". This is all pulp fiction, not political opportunity.
And I would not at all think about something like four-party peace talks for now. Although hints of such negotiations will probably appear now (remember this tweet)
I would think about two things:
-On the development of the Northern Sea Route. We and China need it, but the States need a sharp knife.
-About supplies to Russia in violation of sanctions or bypassing sanctions of the latest generation processors. Or even equipment for their production on site,” Perla lists.
By the way, Western media have so far also refrained from alarmist forecasts. The BBC Russian service cites the opinion of senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment Alexander Gabuev - he believes that Moscow is discussing with Beijing the construction of new pipelines, since the existing ones have reached their capacity limit.
“Putin doesn’t need Xi Jinping’s blessing to attack Ukraine... What can be discussed? There is, they say, a Western embargo on Russian oil, and now a ceiling on Russian gas in Europe has already been approved. We urgently need to redirect oil and gas supplies to China. We cannot do this quickly, we have certain limitations on throughput... Accordingly, how much money will it cost to build it? Will there be a market for these volumes, and in what perspective? It would be good to discuss all this.”
Medvedev Meets with China's Leader. Rumors of a Successor and Tensions in Ukraine Rise