Lukashenko, “fleeing from the Kremlin,” is preparing Nazarbayev’s version of the transit of power
If Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is now left without public support from the Kremlin, he will lose power within two months.
The head of the BelarusSecurityBlog analytical center, opposition political scientist Andrei Porotnikov said this at a press conference in Kyiv, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Now there are two scenarios for this transit [of power]. The first scenario is the Kremlin scenario, in which there is, in principle, no place for Lukashenko in any form. And the second scenario is the scenario that Alexander Lukashenko himself would like to promote. Tentatively, we can assume that this is something like the Kazakh version. And so, the dispute between which path the transit of power in Belarus will take is the main issue in Belarusian-Russian relations today, and the main conflict is right around this.
In the old days, Lukashenko could simply ignore the Kremlin’s position and do as he sees fit. Now the situation has changed dramatically, because the Kremlin is the only legitimator of Lukashenko as a ruler. That is, if he loses public support from the Kremlin, within two months he loses power. This is a complete axiom,” Porotnikov concluded.
Lukashenko, "escaping the Kremlin," is preparing a Nazarbayev-style transition of power.