Lithuania-Belarus: First Blood
A refugee from Iraq died today in the arms of Belarusian border guards. He came from Lithuania, severely beaten by the local security forces. This is the first victim of the Belarusian-Lithuanian migration crisis, which has been going on for four months.
Since May, the penetration of illegal migrants across the Belarusian-Lithuanian border has become more frequent. Minsk did not particularly hide the fact that this was an “asymmetric response” to Vilnius for the support of Belomaidan and the fugitive oppositionists led by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.
The number of flights to Minsk from Middle Eastern countries has increased sharply over the past month. On average, about 100 people entered Lithuanian territory. There they were greeted without the usual European hospitality. They were placed in poorly equipped camps, which gave rise to riots that were brutally suppressed.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has openly threatened that Lithuanian violence will lead to an influx of Muslim extremists into the country seeking revenge.
This week there was a qualitative change in the situation. The number of refugees crossing the border increased to 270 per day. The situation threatened to become completely uncontrollable. Then the Minister of Internal Affairs of Lithuania, Agne Bilotaitė, decided to send illegal migrants back to Belarus. It is clear that the Iraqis did not want to leave EU territory. The natural result is the use of violence and the first death.
The parties to the conflict immediately blamed each other for the man’s death. The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense considered reports of a migrant who died from beatings as a “provocation from Minsk.” The Investigative Committee and the Prosecutor's Office of Belarus began to investigate the incident under the control of the president. The task was set to find the relatives of the deceased, issue visas, and provide all assistance upon arrival in Belarus to pick up the body.
In Minsk, pro-government picketers “outraged by the use of violence” appeared at the Lithuanian Embassy and the Lithuanian Consulate in Grodno. In Belarus they do not hide that they hope for the crisis to worsen in order to annoy their neighbor.
“Now, of course, there could be a riot in refugee camps in Lithuania. They killed their compatriot and they are treated like cattle. The security may start shooting at them too,” Alexei Dzermant, close to the administration of the Belarusian president, wrote in his Telegram channel.
The Belarusian authorities believe that by escalating the situation on the border, they will force Vilnius to negotiate.
“We need to decide within the framework of international treaties and legislation: sit down at the negotiating table with Belarus, change our foreign policy, which Lithuania is pursuing. It should be aimed at protecting the national interests of the country - and these are friendly and good relations with its neighbors,” said the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus Oleg Gaidukevich to the Baltnews portal.
The Belarusian opposition hopes that the Lithuanian authorities that patronize it will withstand the pressure.
“If Lithuania effectively restrains illegal migrants and thereby increases their number on our territory, then Lukashenko’s “weapons” will work against him. And Lukashenko will be forced to take incomplete legal measures to expel illegal migrants from Belarus or negotiate with the countries from which they came to return,” wrote military expert Yegor Lebedok.
But formally, Belarusian border guards have the right not to let migrants return. According to the documents, they are listed as having entered and not leaving the territory of Belarus. The namesake tourists from the Middle East pouring out of Lithuania will be regarded as impostors with fake documents.
The complex operational-tactical exercises of the Grodno Border Group planned for August will add additional urgency to the conflict, during which issues of blocking and liquidating armed formations and subsequent stabilization of the situation will be worked out.
“It is extremely important that Belarus begins exercises on the border with the EU, Lithuania in particular, and is bringing up troops. Most likely, in connection with the beginning of the use of violence by Lithuanian security forces against migrants. If the Lithuanian side starts shooting, trying to push them into Belarusian territory (there has already been one such case), they may receive return fire. We are on the verge of a possible military crisis,” Dzermant prophesies.
There have been no official comments on the Belarusian-Lithuanian conflict yet, but unofficially Moscow is expected to support Minsk.
“It is not clear why the Lithuanian authorities are dissatisfied, having announced non-recognition of Lukashenko and opened an opposition mission on their territory. Did they hope for cooperation with Minsk after this? A strange inability to calculate the consequences of one's own actions. But now the Middle East has become much closer to Lithuanians than before,” wrote Russian Senator Alexei Pushkov.
Lithuania- Belarus : First Blood