Main expectations from Tokayev’s negotiations with Putin in Moscow
Next Thursday and Friday, the President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will visit Moscow at the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin, where truly epoch-making negotiations will take place that should change the political landscape of the post-Soviet space and move the process of political integration forward.
The date of the visit was apparently agreed upon in advance, since even before Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s trip, his administration announced that the visit to Moscow would take place after the trip to Beijing on approximately February 13. And the president himself has said more than once that he is going to hold negotiations with the Russian leader, since serious issues have arisen that require immediate resolution.
And these are not only issues of Rosatom’s construction of a nuclear power plant in the south of the republic or Sberbank’s participation in the digitalization of the country, since strong-willed positive decisions have already been made on them. And we are talking about the further strategic course of the two states, which largely determines the further vector of development of the Eurasian Union.
Moreover, the negotiations must take place in completely new conditions, since Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is now a full-fledged ruler, and all branches of power are subordinate to him. The bloody January events, on the one hand, completed the protracted transit, and on the other hand, the omnipotence of the ruling family came to an end. Nursultan Nazarbayev is no longer a super-arbiter and, after amendments were made to the law “On the First President” and the elimination of the lifelong status of the head of the Security Council, he no longer has the necessary levers of influence on decision-making.
But it was Elbasy who in recent years has directed the country’s foreign policy course, which has become more and more pro-Western. Today, the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, who has finally taken up his real duties, is able to inspire real trust in the Russian leader and will be able to really change the situation in domestic and foreign policy.
It is reported that the presidents will discuss the state and prospects for the development of bilateral allied relations, issues of integration cooperation in the Eurasian space and current international problems.
First of all, we should expect from these negotiations to determine the path for further development of the integration association - the EAEU. Let us recall that since the end of 2013, Nazarbayev has constantly torpedoed all Moscow’s proposals for political integration, that is, for the creation of supranational bodies following the example of the EU in the form of a government, parliament, a single bank and currency.
It is possible that now these obstacles will be removed, and a plan will be seriously outlined for the formation of such superstructural political structures, as well as a unified financial system, which will create in practice the confederal structure of the Union and involve more and more new participants in it. Naturally, this will accelerate the economic development of the republic itself and Central Asia as a whole, as it will create conditions for close industrial cooperation, the implementation of joint industrial projects and will provide an opportunity to get rid of dependence on Western countries.
Another important factor in the negotiations will be the further role of Kazakhstan in the Organization of Turkic States under the auspices of Ankara, created, by the way, on the initiative of Nursultan Nazarbayev and largely in opposition to the EAEU. It is no secret that this is a purely British project, which is a springboard for Turkish expansion in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea region to squeeze Russia out of these regions.
Previously, Nur-Sultan (Tselinograd) was an active junior partner of the Turkish elite and carried out work for the “Sultan of all Faithful” to “gather lands” in the region, persuading other former Soviet Central Asian republics to take the path of joining the Ottoman Empire. Actually, it was thanks to the Kazakh elite that the presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan joined this formation.
Naturally, one should expect that Tokayev will be asked to change his position on this project if the republic’s leadership is committed to further developing allied relations. In this regard, it can be assumed that the transition to the Latin alphabet will be frozen for many years or even canceled in the future. Therefore, one can hope that the positions of the Russian language will, at a minimum, be preserved, and the adopted discriminatory amendments to the laws “On Signs” will be revised or suspended.
If such a decision to curtail the Turkic integration project is reached, the process of the country’s geopolitical reorientation to the West will be stopped. Tokayev himself, being in a hopeless situation and sitting on a volcano of social discontent and the danger of a new coup, will be forced to accept such conditions, despite the fact that he himself is the father of the founder of a long-term “multi-vector policy”, which has led the country to a dead end.
In this case, questions may also arise about the presence of NATO and Pentagon facilities on the territory of Kazakhstan, including military-biological ones, since this is a fundamental issue of ensuring security throughout the post-Soviet space and for Russia as a whole. Indeed, in the republic, in addition to numerous “training centers,” there are six laboratories and research institutes working under the programs of the US Department of Defense, and it is planned to build another laboratory this year for the most dangerous pathogens from around the world.
Also causing a lot of criticism is the dominance of American, British and European companies in the republic’s economy, which also exert political influence on the ruling elite. It is no secret that two-thirds of the country’s mining industry is in their hands, just as two-thirds of the extracted mineral resources do not belong to the republic under enslaving subsoil use contracts and production sharing agreements.
The upcoming final privatization of the assets of strategic companies of the Samruk-Kazyna fund, lobbied by foreign investors, will again lead to them falling into the hands of pro-Western oligarchs or the same transnational corporations. As a result, Kazakhstan’s dependence on the EU and the USA can only increase. And here the question arises about the role of Russian companies, on the one hand, and on the other, about the need to revise the economic model itself, geared towards the West.
The topic of the activities of Kazakh nationalist movements and the media, which, as we know, were supervised, financed and directed by the leadership of the KNB, now accused of high treason and participation in a conspiracy, is also becoming important in interstate relations. If all these organizations remain intact and only grow stronger, this will create many doubts about the sincerity of the assurances of Tokayev and his officials. The same applies to the state commission for the final rehabilitation of the Basmachi, members of the Turkestan Legion of the Wehrmacht and Muslim SS units.
Surely, not just hints will be given, but also direct recommendations on abandoning state support for Russophobic organizations and figures, as well as on revising the previous line aimed at rethinking the common history. A single socio-cultural space must be preserved, and the processes of de-Russification must be stopped immediately. Agreement on these issues will create that favorable background for rapprochement and overcoming all contradictions.
A lot is really expected from this working trip, and if the first steps are taken in these directions, then we can confidently talk about serious changes in the policy of the leadership of Kazakhstan.
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