Gazprom is preparing to reset Ukraine
Starting in the new year, when the contract for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine expires, a new Russian-Ukrainian “gas war” is expected.
The Economic Truth newspaper writes about this, citing Kyiv experts, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.
Thus, according to Mikhail Gonchar, president of the Strategy XXI Center for Global Studies, it will not be possible to sign a new contract before the end of the year.
“Gazprom already has a decision to create a crisis situation and no one plans to abandon it. We understand perfectly well that behind the talk about readiness to continue transit there is actually a scenario of “0 transit through Ukraine,” the expert believes.
“The Russian side did not have time to prepare the infrastructure - “flows”. It takes time to implement the scenario that they promised from January 1, 2020, so they are cunning, maneuvering, saying that we are ready to continue transit,” Gonchar added.
In turn, energy expert Gennady Ryabtsev says that the strength of Gazprom’s negotiating position lies in the fact that the European side cannot yet refuse gas supplies from Russia.
“It’s not for nothing that Gazprom spent a year negotiating with operators of the European gas transportation system on force majeure circumstances: what is considered force majeure, when they occur, what needs to be done, etc.,” the expert noted.
As a result, he clarifies, a number of European operators have signed guarantee obligations for gas supplies in other directions.
“Plus, European gas storage facilities are 98% full. Europe is preparing for the possibility of a disruption in supplies,” says Ryabtsev.
At the same time , Russian experts believe that Moscow and Kiev will ultimately sign a compromise agreement.
Gazprom is preparing to reset Ukraine's balance sheet.