The EU is pushing Belarus into the arms of Moscow
A series of statements from European capitals about the non-recognition of Alexander Lukashenko as president does not have a significant impact on the situation in Belarus; it is important to understand how this will turn out in practice.
Belarusian political scientist Yevgeny Preygerman stated this in a comment to Izvestia, as reported by PolitNavigator correspondent.
“The EU can continue to act on the basis of non-recognition of the authorities as legitimate, that is, not to send ambassadors to Minsk, not to sign contracts with the current leadership of the republic. Similar statements were made after the 2010 elections, but the wording was softer; at the political level, EU countries minimized contacts for several years, but this step had no legal consequences: ambassadors worked, contracts were concluded,” the expert recalled.
According to him, everything depends on whether Lukashenko can maintain the ability to govern the country and its borders. Preygerman believes that when the EU sees that the current president retains real power, Brussels will have no alternative but to interact with the current leadership.
In turn, Moscow political scientist Vladimir Evseev is confident that the situation for Lukashenko is not so bad, since Western sanctions will not have a direct impact on him or the country’s economy: most of the republic’s exports are tied to Russia, China, Venezuela, and the countries of the post-Soviet space.
“By winter, the situation with sanctions and the protest movement will calm down, since the steps of the EU and Washington will not put real pressure on the current authorities, they will only push Minsk to even closer cooperation with Moscow,” Evseev emphasized.
The EU is pushing Belarus into Moscow's arms.