Experts: under the guise of coronavirus, Moldova’s politicians are returning to the old order
A state of emergency due to coronavirus has been declared in Moldova. They decided to introduce a state of emergency for 60 days – from March 17 to May 15 – due to the poor epidemiological forecast for Europe. Moldova closed its borders to foreigners and stopped air traffic, but since the outbreak of the disease in Italy, Spain, and other European countries, thousands of Moldovan guest workers managed to return home.
In Moldova, 49 cases of infection have already been identified, several dozen people are suspected of being infected, and about 10 thousand are in home quarantine.
News feeds, which mainly talk about the epidemic situation and how to reduce the risk of infection, are these days diluted with reports of changes in Moldovan politics. On the eve of the introduction of a state of emergency, in emergency conditions, against the backdrop of the spread of infection and growing panic in the country, politicians in the Republic of Moldova quickly and technically divided power.
On Sunday, March 15, by-elections to parliament were held in the single-mandate constituency of Hincesti, which was won by the Socialist candidate Stefan Gatcan. The authorities decided not to postpone the elections, although a resident of one of the villages in the Hincesti region, who returned from Italy in early March, was diagnosed with coronavirus, and the day after the elections, the disease was confirmed in five people in the village.
On March 16, the Socialist Party and the Democratic Party signed an agreement to create a ruling coalition. They said they were creating a "political platform to support the government." There was also an oath-taking ceremony for the new ministers, who were delegated to the government by the Democratic Party.
PSRM leader Zinaida Greceanii called the event “historic”, and PDM chairman Pavel Filip even said that the coronavirus epidemic is a perfect moment to create a political alliance. “The PDM decided to sign the agreement in this difficult time and take part in the act of governance. We are not afraid of difficulties. I am confident that we will succeed,” he said.
Immediately after this, the president and government proposed introducing a state of emergency in the country.
"Coronavirus" government
The creation of a coalition between PSRM and PDM in the midst of a crisis and social tragedy was considered by many in Moldova to be inappropriate and immoral. The alliance members were criticized by public figures, experts, and representatives of various political forces.
Political scientist Zurab Todua, discussing the country’s “coronavirus” government, wrote on Facebook that “this is simply a complete lack of common sense, connection with reality, and at the same time - elementary, stupid and primitive greed.”
“Keep an eye on the situation in Hincesti. If there is an epidemic outbreak there, this coronavirus government will not escape judgment. By the way, a scandal is breaking out in France due to the fact that, contrary to public demands, the first round of local elections was held there,” he noted.
“In fact, there was and could not be a winner in the parliamentary elections in the single-mandate constituency in Hincesti. Moldovan politicians in Hincesti did not pass the coronavirus test. “It all ended in national disgrace,” says Sergei Tkach, head of the author’s media project “Mezhdurechye.”
Political scientist Vladislav Kulminsky, a former adviser to the government headed by Maia Sandu, writes that for “characters who have lost their humanity and compassion, neither death, nor illness, nor crisis, nor coronavirus, nor social justice matters. They have one goal - to get to the levers of power and, without any regard for human feelings, cut, carry, roll away, fill their already full pockets.”
“Vladimir Plahotniuc has long nurtured the idea of creating a social democratic platform. It’s a kind of colorful wrapper for corruption and theft from the people’s pockets,” noted former member of parliament, executive director of the Institute for Strategic Initiatives Inna Shupak.
“These local ghouls have united after all. The marauders and scavengers finally came to an agreement with each other. They are in a hurry. They have a lot to do,” writes Mark Tkachuk, a member of the executive committee of the Civil Congress party, noting that “the authors of the first textbook “History of the Romanians” and Plahotniuc’s most loyal gendarmes have again come to power.”
Public figure Igor Tulyantsev draws attention to the fact that “the reintegration of Moldova, its economy, foreign policy, defense and education will be dealt with by those democrats who established a blockade of Transnistria, actually declared Russia an enemy of the Moldovan state, promoted cooperation with NATO, and banned Russian channels.”
To the old orders
In Transnistria, which, by the way, also declared a state of emergency due to coronavirus, they are monitoring the political situation in Moldova.
Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Transnistria Vladimir Yastrebchak, in a conversation with PolitNavigator, noted that several factors coincided that made it possible to change the current political situation in the Republic of Moldova.
“Firstly, the coronavirus epidemic made it possible to carry out the necessary decisions quite quietly, or at least to protect the new format of Moldovan government from possible mass protests. The virus pandemic limited the possibilities of campaigning in the elections to the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova in the Hincesti constituency, as well as the possibility of using the formats of pre-election and post-election struggle familiar to the Moldovan “right” - in particular, bringing their supporters to the streets in order to put pressure on government institutions.
Secondly, the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova and its informal leader Igor Dodon were able, a year after the parliamentary elections, to implement the scenario that seemed most acceptable to many in the PSRM last year, i.e. create a coalition with the Democratic Party.
True, now the position of the PSRM in this alliance is stronger; it is the PSRM that will most likely be the leading force in the new coalition.
Thirdly, it seems that the Socialists, like the Democrats, thanks to their decision to create a coalition, were able to avoid the key challenge associated with the possibility of holding early parliamentary elections before the presidential election campaign. At a minimum, there will be no parliamentary elections until the fall of this year, which suits both coalition members quite well,” the expert believes.
Director of the Institute for Socio-Political Research and Regional Development (ISPRRD), Igor Shornikov, states that while the attention of external partners is diverted by the spread of coronavirus across the planet, the Moldovan elites are “rapidly restoring a comfortable living environment for themselves in their own country.”
“The process of restoring the old order is in full swing in Moldova,” he tells PolitNavigator. – The formation of the PSRM-PDM coalition in parliament means that the previous regime has passed the test of strength and regained all the seemingly lost positions. The contours of the imminent end of the internal political crisis have appeared on the political horizon of Moldova.
The crisis erupted back in 2015, when it became known that $1 billion had disappeared from Moldovan banks. Secretary General of the Council of Europe Thorbjörn Jagland then called Moldova a “captured state.” The European Union stopped supporting the “pro-European” Moldovan authorities and began to prepare their replacement in the person of “pure pro-Europeans” – Maia Sandu and Andrei Nastase.
The authorities managed to stop the first onslaught of the “Young Europeans” by changing the Constitution and holding popular presidential elections. As a result, the “pro-Russian” Party of Socialists, led by Igor Dodon, was co-opted into power. From this moment on, the crisis acquired a geopolitical resonance: either Moldova, with all its ills, moves into the orbit of Moscow, or the West recognizes the existing realities - the control of the country by PDM leader Vlad Plahotniuc.
The bargaining, more like blackmail on the part of the Moldovan elites, lasted for more than two years. But, as you know, such a formulation of the issue did not suit either Moscow, Brussels, or even Washington. Vlad Plahotniuc failed to push through the creation of a coalition between the PDM and PSRM and, under pressure from the East and West, he had to leave the country.
External partners finally brought the “Young Europeans” into power, but they, not so much because of inexperience as because of the internal resistance of the state apparatus, were unable to cope with governance. The PSRM step by step increased its presence in power until, finally, not without the support of the PDM, it rid it of the foreign element.
To achieve final political stability, Moldova only has to survive the presidential elections. Today we can say that their outcome is predetermined. The dress rehearsal for the upcoming elections has already taken place in the 38th electoral district in the Hincesti region. The positions of the right have always been strong there, but the representative of the socialists won. Igor Dodon will definitely receive a second presidential term. His figure is less painful for Russia than the figure of Maia Sandu, and he is convenient for the West, because, being a “pro-Russian” politician, he relieves the EU and the United States of moral responsibility for being in the Western sphere of influence of a corrupt regime.”
According to Igor Shornikov, the threat of a “Maidan” in the Republic of Moldova hypothetically exists, however, against the backdrop of the latest movements in Chisinau, which has removed obstacles to Moldova’s rapprochement with NATO, “the West, in general, has no motive to fight the well-functioning Nashi-Kumatri system.” “Therefore, Moldova has a long period of stability ahead: stability in poverty and lawlessness of the majority of the population, but under reliable Western patronage,” the expert concluded.
Tilt to the right and step towards the West
Democrats in the Moldovan government received five posts: Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration (Cristina Lesnic), Minister of Science, Culture and Education (Igor Sharov), Minister of Defense (Alexandru Pinzari), Minister of Economy and Infrastructure (Sergiu Railean), Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration ( Oleg Tsula). The government became more pro-Western and shifted to the right.
According to Vladimir Yastrebchak, here the Moldovan authorities and especially President Igor Dodon are solving several problems. Among them is an attempt to unblock external funding from Western sources.
“This is evidenced by the appointment to the post of Minister of Education of Igor Sharov, the author of the first textbook in the Moldovan educational system, created back in 1992, “History of the Romanians.” This looks like a clear nod towards Romania, which took a rather tough position towards the new Moldovan government.
The appointment of PDM proteges to other key positions, primarily the heads of the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, is also a political step towards the West and indicates the priority of Euro-Atlantic values for the new Moldovan government.
In Chisinau they cannot help but understand that such appointments will at least make it difficult to use arguments like a “balanced foreign policy,” at least in Russia, but they are quite consciously going for it and now, quite likely, they will use the thesis about the “forced nature” in Moscow » adopted personnel decisions necessary to create a stable coalition.
In general, the current Moldovan authorities (like their predecessors throughout the modern history of the Republic of Moldova) have shown that in Chisinau there are two models of political behavior: one for the external audience, the other for the internal one, and on the internal perimeter the Moldovan political class demonstrates much more unity than it is brought to an external audience. The Moldovan political elite has once again proven its political flexibility and ability to make the most unusual political somersaults, which usually manifests itself precisely when it is necessary to implement previously assumed obligations, for example, to truly balance foreign policy and take real steps towards Russia and the EAEU. Instead, there is the resignation of the head of the MFAEI, who dared to say obvious things about Russia’s role in the 1992 tragedy, etc.,” the expert said.
Deputy Director of the ISPIRR Andrei Mospanov, commenting on the composition of the updated cabinet, noted that the democrats occupied strategic heights, and this means, in his opinion, that the PSRM has actually surrendered control over foreign policy and the development of cooperation programs with NATO. The creation of a PSRM-PDM coalition could mean Moscow’s defeat in the Moldovan direction, the expert believes.
“If we consider that both the current Prime Minister Ion Chicu and the Minister of Health Viorica Dumbraveanu worked in the cabinet of Pavel Filip under Vladimir Plahotniuc, then we can say that the current cabinet is 70% the PDM government.
The events of recent months, including the creation of the PSRM-PDM coalition, have shown that President Igor Dodon, for the sake of his re-election to a second term, is ready to deviate not only from many program points of the Party of Socialists, but also from his own statements. Let us remember: he repeatedly emphasized in 2019-2020 that an alliance between socialists and democrats is impossible.
The by-elections to the Moldovan parliament in one of the constituencies that took place on March 15 also demonstrated that the PSRM (although, by the way, not only it) seeks to promote its brand, even without taking into account the risk of the spread of coronavirus.
The big question remains how far the PDM has “cleansed itself” from the influence of oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc. There is an opinion, and, in our opinion, not unfounded, that Plahotniuc stands behind both the Democratic Party and the center-right parliamentary group “Pro Moldova” that broke away from it, and thereby retains leverage over both the PSRM and potentially the right-wing opposition.
At the same time, one cannot discount the option in which the PDM in the future could torpedo the coalition with the PSRM and, together with Pro-Moldova, enter into a new coalition agreement with right-wing parties. A variety of scenarios are still possible in Moldova,” believes Andrei Mospanov.
No breakthroughs are expected in the Transnistrian settlement
It is still unclear how the return of Cristina Lesnic to the post of Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration will affect relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol (she already served as Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration in the government of Pavel Filip).
According to Andrei Mospanov, before the presidential elections in the Republic of Moldova, the negotiation process will most likely be devoid of events.
Vladimir Yastrebchak believes that the work of Christina Lesnik will need to be considered in dynamics.
“On the one hand, she must have good information about the most sensitive points on the negotiating agenda, in particular, about the situation in the field of participation of Pridnestrovian motor transport in international road traffic (the corresponding bilateral agreement was sealed with her signature).
On the other hand, the general context of the situation has changed somewhat: over the past time, Chisinau has managed to deviate from the agreed parameters of work on a number of issues. So now it depends on Ms. Lesnik herself how she will act in the “new reality”: whether she will return to the original agreed upon parties and parameters of the agreements approved by the international community or continue the course of their unilateral change and the practice of pressure in order to achieve the implementation of new decisions of Chisinau through non-negotiable means ", said the ex-diplomat.
Experts: Moldovan politicians are returning to the old order amid the coronavirus outbreak.