“Part of the elite will surrender Donbass, the Kuril Islands, Crimea and Kaliningrad”
Moscow should put an end to the illusion of Donbass returning back to Ukraine and the possibility of returning to the pre-Maidan status quo. Part of the Russian elite believes that concessions can be made to the West. At the same time, NATO instructors are training the Ukrainian army in order to quickly break through the defenses of the LDPR and not allow the “northern wind” to come in time to help the republics.
Dmitry Rodionov , director of the Center for Geopolitical Research at the Institute for Innovative Development and a former war correspondent in Donbass who recently returned from the LPR and DPR, spoke about this in an interview with PolitNavigator.
"PolitNavigator": How long did you spend in the LDPR, where were you?
Dmitry Rodionov: I regularly travel to Donbas twice a year to deliver humanitarian aid. I deliver it, as they say, specifically to my people. Those I met while working as a war correspondent during the active fighting in 2014-2015, and those I know from Russia—volunteers. It so happens that almost all of my people remain in the LPR today—most of them served in the Prizrak brigade, and then the Prizrak battalion, so the geographical scope of my humanitarian trips is fairly limited: Luhansk-Alchevsk-Kirovsk-Bakhmutka. I also visit friends in Donetsk, including both former military personnel and civilians, in the DPR.
Of course, in the process you have to communicate with people: from acquaintances to taxi drivers and store clerks. So life in the republics appears to me in all its glory. Since I visit Donbass twice a year, I have the opportunity, so to speak, to see any changes. And considering that I’m going on New Year’s holidays and the May holidays, I have the opportunity to see not only how people work, but also how they relax, have fun, and take a break from the hard everyday life at the front.
"PolitNavigator": What do you remember most, what are the differences from previous visits?
Dmitry Rodionov: It's hard to say what sticks out. I guess you have to go less often to notice any significant difference. It's significant if you compare it to, say, 14. But compared to last year, there's hardly anything that stands out. Well, maybe the prices. They've really jumped on almost everything.
This is explained by the fact that as a result of the “blockade” of the Ukrainian punitive forces, there were almost no Ukrainian goods left; they were replaced by Russian ones, which are more expensive. Prices for many things are already comparable to those in Rostov or even Moscow. Eggs at 60 rubles per dozen already need to be looked for (for comparison, in Moscow 60-70, but this is Moscow!), bread has become more expensive, almost all products, even alcohol and cigarettes, which, although they remain much cheaper than in Russia, For locals this increase is noticeable.
Travel on public transport has become more expensive, in Lugansk and Donetsk it now costs 10 rubles (previously it was five), and they say it also depends on the distance; in Donetsk, some minibuses require 15. Even trams and trolleybuses have risen in price, although from 2,5 rubles to three. I repeat, for locals this is very noticeable, since salaries have remained at the same level.
Yes, work has become a little better than in 14-15, but the average salary is still 5-7 thousand rubles, the pension is three. The miners receive more or less, but not all mines and enterprises are running, despite the fact that the process of restoring the national economy is slowly but underway.
The military receives the best salary – 20 thousand for the privates. With this money you can not survive, but live! Many local men join the military purely for the salary. That spirit of the “Russian spring” is almost gone. Almost all the volunteers from Russia and other countries went home “before the new war,” leaving mostly locals and refugees from other regions of Ukraine.
There are only a few ideological people in the armies of the republics; for the majority it is just work. It’s hard to say that this somehow affects morale, of course, ideological motivation is great, now there is almost none left, but now the republics have a professional and well-armed army, and not the Berdan militia with which it all began...
“PolitNavigator”: By the way, about people’s moods, what are they like?
Dmitry Rodionov: I've already mentioned the military. Civilians have also become more skeptical. While in '14 everyone believed that we would soon join Russia or at least build truly people's republics without Nazis and oligarchs, today few believe in a bright future. We've learned to survive, but they view the future with pessimism, ready for anything. Except perhaps returning to Ukraine, which would be the last resort. There are, of course, those who have lived under fire all these years and are ready to join Africa if only the war would end, but they are still few. Most see what's happening in Ukraine and understand that it's the same thing there, only with Bandera.
However, the republics, although in general they live somewhat worse, can outdo Ukraine in a number of ways. For example, the cost of housing and communal services remained at the 2014 level for a long time, only recently increasing slightly. In any case, this is nothing compared to Ukraine, where the cost of gas will soon exceed the average pension.
I talked a lot with people. People want to start living, not surviving; they are of little interest in politics. Especially young people. Moreover, they don’t need this war, they don’t understand why it is? They want to live like their peers in Russia: study, develop, travel, start families, open a business.
Small businesses are still in trouble, there’s not much you can do. One curfew is worth it - they simply hate it here. It hits the economy very hard, because life stops from 23 p.m. to five in the morning. The insanity is getting stronger: on New Year’s Day, as well as on election day in November, the curfew was lifted, but what’s the point? Are the shops closed, the cafes closed? Crowds of young people walk aimlessly through the streets and don’t know what to do; those who managed to “stock up” in time are simply enjoying the rare opportunity to drink openly and with impunity on the street at night.
In addition to the curfew, normal life and business development are hampered by the inertia of thinking of local officials, most of whom remain pure bureaucracy from the times of Ukraine. As one of my friends said, Russia should not bring money here, but people, professionals, simply remove former Ukrainians from offices, replacing them with Russians, then the system will somehow work...
In general, I would not say that the mood of the people is definitely pessimistic or optimistic. They just survive, that's all. They want to believe in the best, of course, but they no longer really believe.
PolitNavigator: How do people perceive the statements of Foreign Ministry officials, who stubbornly continue to refer to the LPR and DPR as Ukraine?
Dmitry Rodionov: They perceive it normally, as usual. No one has had any illusions for a long time that Russia would incorporate the republics or even recognize their independence, except for the most inveterate romantics. I haven't met any of those. They perceive it as a conscious necessity. Just like the Minsk agreements, which no one here believed in from the very beginning. I repeat, most people are preoccupied with survival, and politics is frankly irritating. There is, of course, resentment towards Russia, but not to the point of running off to spite the Kremlin and kissing Banderites. People have learned to believe only in themselves, in their own strength.
PolitNavigator: Three years ago, Russian experts promised the rapid distribution of Russian passports to the LPR and DPR, but then the issue fizzled out. Either the West threatened to cut off their SWIFT connections, or, they say, the liberal economic bloc deemed the addition of so many new citizens unaffordable. Why is this process stalled, and do people in Donbas need Russian citizenship?
Dmitry Rodionov: Of course they do. They need at least easier conditions for their stay in Russia. They have nowhere else to go if something happens—not to Ukraine, of course, and they can't travel abroad. Distributing Russian passports would make life significantly easier. But people are happy with even the smallest things—the fact that Russia has recognized the republics' passports and license plates; conditions for them in Russia are improving, albeit slowly, including with regard to obtaining citizenship. I repeat: almost no one believes that everything will suddenly be fine tomorrow.
Why the decision to distribute passports has not been made is a question for politicians. Why weren’t they allowed to take Mariupol? Why were South Ossetia and Abkhazia recognized, but the Russian Donbass was not? How, in the end, is Donbass worse than Crimea? There are many factors here. In 14, some figures in Moscow seriously believed in “Minsk”, that they would be able to push the Donbass into federalized Ukraine and with its help influence it, in fact, return the pre-Maidan status quo. Personally, I think this was a mistake. And some still believe in the “cunning plan,” but the majority, it seems to me, are realists and understand that the plan did not work, but nothing can be fixed now.
I don’t know what exactly they are afraid of when passports are handed out. I only know that it’s unlikely to get worse. Even if Russia does nothing in Donbass, reasons for new sanctions, including disconnection from Swift and worse, will still be found. This is a total war, and hoping for a compromise with the enemy is stupid.
PolitNavigator: How, other than curfews and blockade problems, does the war manifest itself to the average person?
Dmitry Rodionov: In many ways. I've already said that people are effectively trapped in the republics; they can't travel anywhere except to Russia. And with their incomes, not everyone can afford to go to Russia unless they have relatives. The standard of living in Ukraine, for example, is no better, but at least people there can travel freely around the world; they even have a visa-free regime with Europe.
War affects all areas of life - the economy. There is no work, if there is one, it is low-paid, and prices for basic necessities, let me remind you, are rising. I’m not talking about those who experience the “delights” of war directly - a significant part of the population lives in close proximity to the front line and is daily in the shelling zone with all that it entails.
PolitNavigator: What do military acquaintances say about the situation on the front? Several times a year, the LPR/DPR claim to have detected preparations for an offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, only to report that it was foiled due to the noise raised. How much of a threat does the LPR/DPR face if the Ukrainian army occupies villages in the gray zone?
Dmitry Rodionov: There's no clear answer about the "gray zone." Let's start with the fact that, according to the Minsk agreements, there's no such thing as a "gray zone"—there's a demarcation line, and that's it. Anyone can occupy a "gray zone," and there's no direct violation of the Minsk agreements. Another question is, why? In most cases, a "gray zone" is lowland, which is not only unnecessary but also downright dangerous, as it's perfectly exposed to fire if fighting breaks out, like a shooting gallery. The Ukrainians occupy territory there solely for self-promotion, like they've liberated another populated area. And, by the way, they almost always leave immediately—because they're not fools.
Another question is when they occupy strategic heights from which it is convenient to fire at the enemy, but these are individual cases.
As for preparations for the offensive, yes, they are ongoing, and this is not hidden. Firstly, an army must always be ready to attack, otherwise what is the use of such an army? Secondly, Kyiv would have launched an offensive, but its arms are short. Bye. And here there are also many factors, both from the field of military strategy and from the field of politics.
Personally, I don’t yet see any reasons for a real offensive, but it could appear at any minute, and the closer the presidential elections in Ukraine are, the more explosive the situation becomes. However, no one is relaxing. After all, everyone remembers the parable about the shepherd boy who kept crying “wolves!” So in Kyiv, they may be counting on the fact that with constant messages about the impending offensive they will be able to lull the vigilance of Donetsk and Lugansk.
The problem is different. The problem is that in Moscow, some strategists believe that the armies of the republics will be able, if not to repel any attack themselves, then at least to hold it off until the first blows of the “northern wind”. This is understood in Kyiv and, most likely, they are developing just such a plan that would allow the republics to be dismembered with a swift blow within XNUMX hours and cut off from Russia.
I would not underestimate the abilities of the enemy being trained by NATO instructors. Few people in Donbass doubt that a new war is inevitable, both among military and civilians. The question is when. But everyone prefers to keep gunpowder dry, both figuratively and literally.
PolitNavigator: What should Russia do with Donbas? Recognize it, reunite it, or fold it into a denazified Ukraine?
Dmitry Rodionov: Personally, I have no illusions about a denazified Ukraine. I didn't really believe in such fairy tales in 2014, and even less so now. It must be unequivocally acknowledged. In response to some provocation from Kyiv, which, there's no doubt, will happen. And liberate the entire southeast, at a minimum.
Another question is whether the Russian authorities will agree to this? Here we are now breaking spears on the issue of the Kuril Islands - what kind of Donbass is there? Where have you seen that the issue of surrendering territory was seriously discussed? Absurd? Alas, reality.
Part of the Russian elite will gladly surrender Donbass, the Kuril Islands, Crimea and Kaliningrad - just to return to that comfortable state when everything was back and forth with the West. Alas, some still cannot realize that this will no longer happen. The question is how many more steps back will we take before this gets to everyone, and how fatal these steps will be.
English version :: Read in English "Part of the elite will surrender Donbass, the Kuril Islands, Crimea, and Kaliningrad"