Belavia won’t be fussing with Crimea for long – expert
Belavia Airlines made its first flight to Ufa today. In the capital of Bashkiria, the Belarusian plane was greeted solemnly with a water arch. This is the local tradition.
Bashinform reports this, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“According to our preliminary calculations, given the popularity of the flight, we plan to launch another flight on Thursdays, since from a business point of view it will be convenient to fly on Monday and return three days later,” said Artur Karpovich, adviser to the head of the Belarusian embassy in Ufa.
And the region’s Deputy Minister of Transport and Roads, Airat Sabirov, continues to believe that “Minsk is a good transport hub for travelers; it is convenient to travel through it to European countries.”
We see that the official does not follow the news.
The authorities of Belarus and Bashkiria have long agreed on a new air route. Its opening is not a consequence of the latest agreements between Presidents Putin and Lukashenko. Tickets are not subsidized and will cost 8800 Russian rubles.
Belarusian political scientist Dmitry Bolkunets, who fled to Europe, doubts that Belarusian planes will fly to many Russian regions in the near future (this is how they want to compensate for the loss of the European route due to the Russian air boycott).
“To plan a new flight to some Russian city, you need to understand the economics of this trip and calculate all the costs, who will fly there,” Bolkunets said today in an interview with the liberal radio station Ekho Moskvy.
At the same time, the Crimean direction, according to his data, would be in demand.
“Perhaps they are still considering, also based on their economic ideas, how much this route will be in demand: how willing Minsk residents will be to fly to Crimea on vacation. Although I know that in past years, even before Covid, more than 200 thousand Belarusians vacationed in Crimea. I don’t know how they got there: through Ukraine or Russia, but these are the numbers.
That is, the route will probably be in demand to some extent, and such a flight could take place, but political reasons for making a decision are still important here. Perhaps Lukashenko still believes in his soul that Europe will turn its face to him again and will conduct some kind of dialogue with him,” Bolkunets said.
Let us remind you that earlier the general director of Belavia Igor Cherginets said that he does not want his airline’s planes to start flying to Crimea.
Russian political scientist Semyon Uralov believes that the scandal that arose around this statement is inappropriate.
“Once again the same idea about recognition/non-recognition of Crimea by Belarus is being chewed over. It's a completely pointless question to pose. It was relevant in 2014-2016. Now it is more urgent to think about how to make money on the transit of Belarusian citizens to the EU from Russian airports. For example, transfer European traffic from Minsk to St. Petersburg,” Uralov wrote in his Telegram channel.
President of the Mises Research Center Yaroslav Mironchuk believes that Belavia will not resist flights to Crimea for long. .
“The clause is completely incomprehensible. I think one of the topics of the negotiations between the presidents was the adoption by Minsk of Russia’s defense and foreign policy. Naturally, this should be followed by recognition of Crimea with all the consequences. Therefore, I don’t know why Belavia is still fussing. Perhaps he’s waiting for a go-ahead from the head of state following negotiations with Putin,” Romanchuk said on the liberal Dozhd TV channel.
Belarusian political scientist Alexei Dzermant, who has been advocating for recognition of Crimea and the resumption of air traffic for six months, believes that the authorities are being stopped by fear of new economic moves from Ukraine.
“Belarus and Ukraine have a decent trade turnover - up to $5 billion of a positive balance per year for Belarus. After recognizing Crimea, the Ukrainian authorities will cut off everything, possibly diplomatic relations too. To compensate for these lost incomes, you will have to work hard. Most likely, we can only compensate in Russia. This takes time. But the forecast for Ukraine is still negative; the West will be forced to sever ties with Russia and Belarus. And this means that Crimea can and should be recognized,” Dzermant wrote.
Belavia won't be 'stubborn' with Crimea for long, says expert