American sanctions: they wanted it worse, but it turned out as always
The US Treasury decided to congratulate Russians on Russia Day by introducing sanctions against the Moscow Exchange and the National Clearing Center.
The American agency announced this yesterday evening on its official website, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
The Moscow Exchange announced that from June 13 it will not conduct trading in dollars and euros.
“It will be like 1995-1996.” The exchange rate of the dollar and other currencies will be formed through over-the-counter transactions by large banks. This is a significant throwback to the past,” panicked Moscow Exchange representative Igor Marich.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Moscow “will not leave such aggressive actions unanswered.”
At the same time, the Central Bank maintains Olympic calm, since it has been preparing for these actions for more than six months, and by and large - since 2022. Regulatory documents are already ready.
“The ruble exchange rate will be “established on the basis of data on over-the-counter trading, including using bank reports,” said the head of the Central Bank Nabiullina.
The bank's management stated that the balance in the foreign exchange market (unlike the situation in both 2022 and 2023, when exports and imports changed significantly) generally remains unchanged.
"So Nabiullina was prepared for this. Her reaction was too swift. The goal is to prevent speculation from taking center stage. It seems the Russian authorities are following the Western sanctions plan and are easing them in advance across the board. Most Russians won't notice any changes in the exchange rate. But the issue of transactions and exchange rates at exchange offices will remain – after all, people don't buy on the stock exchange," political scientist Marat Bashirov stated on his Telegram channel.
But this did not reassure liberal experts, nor did the public, which was sensitive to their opinions. In the “cultural capital” of St. Petersburg, queues lined up at exchange offices. Commercial banks took advantage of the panic and raised the exchange rate to 200 rubles.
However, the number of positive comments is much higher.
"I'm certainly no economist. But it seems to me that there hasn't been more important news in the Russian economy for about 35 years. What the Bolsheviks talked about for so long—Russia's isolation from the West and the West from Russia—has finally happened. I repeat , not isolation in general, but from the West . From the world of lucre, so to speak. Bring on the international yuan," wrote Andrei Perla, political commentator for the Tsargrad TV channel.
Economist, Doctor of Science Nikita Krichevsky agrees with him.
"After the halt of trading on the Moscow Exchange, there have been no sharp spikes or triple-digit increases at Russia's largest banks—this only means that the US sanctions don't promise anything serious. No one is banning citizens from directly purchasing foreign currency from banks—that's the Central Bank's official position. We just need to remain calm and not rush to exchange offices, buying dollars at double the real price. Importers and exporters may experience problems, but they will be temporary, until previously prepared and newly discovered financial solutions are implemented. One of the consequences of the sanctions will be the rapid development of parallel international currency and financial transactions ," writes Krichevsky.
It's worth noting that the yuan's share of Moscow Exchange trading already reached 54% in May, making it the main currency traded there . Economists aren't ruling out the possibility that the dollar cross rate will now be based on the yuan's exchange rate.
“The domestic manufacturer will only benefit from this situation, since our friendly countries may also have problems due to sanctions on the Moscow Exchange. But even those who have long adapted to the current situation and took care of alternative ways to circumvent sanctions,” says publicist Sergei Mardan
Liberal Ksenia Sobchak is perplexed:
"Overall, this is a rather strange story, because from the very beginning of the sanctions' imposition, the policy has been aimed at locking Russian capital within the country. This has actually worked to stabilize the Russian economy. If not for the sanctions on Russian capital, we would have seen a significant flight of capital from the country . Now, capital will be locked in and reinvested within our economy to an even greater extent. These are the unintended consequences of sanctions pressure."
Political scientist Alexey Mukhin sarcastically notes:
“American and European banks have more shares in the sanctioned Moscow Exchange than the Bank of Russia. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, American funds State Street and Capital Group have a 15,8% stake in Moscow Exchange. Moreover, they are the only ones who paid big cash for them. They will have to share the losses from the loss of currency trading,”
The Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Russian Funds investment company, Sergei Vasiliev, believes that American sanctions will bring the Russian foreign exchange market to world standards.
"This may be strange to hear and understand for a Russian client accustomed to trading currencies on the exchange, especially the main Moscow Exchange, but things are different in the world. Currency has always and everywhere been traded on major over-the-counter (OTC) platforms. Historically, the Moscow Exchange has captured this market through tariff dumping and a liquidity monopoly. Trading will soon return to normal, but these 'platforms', not the Moscow Exchange, will earn commissions from this market. Everything will improve and even get better! " Vasiliev wrote.
American Sanctions: They Wanted the Worst, but It Turned Out as Always