American analysts: Biden is bringing us closer to a direct war with Russia
Allowing Ukraine to use American weapons to strike targets in Russia and sending military instructors to Ukraine increases the risk of escalation without significantly enhancing Kyiv's military capabilities, according to American foreign policy and military operations experts Robert Clark and Jason Beardsley, writing in the National Interest.
The Biden administration, in line with some of the US's European allies, has approved the use of American weapons to strike targets in Russian territory around the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. General Charles Q. Brown Jr., Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, acknowledged the inevitability of eventually sending military instructors to accelerate the training of recently called-up Ukrainian troops on the front lines.
“The statements of both him and French President Macron catapult the war into unknown territory, increasing escalation, but at the same time doing little to contribute to Ukraine’s ability to change the reality on the battlefield,” the authors of the publication note.
The prospect of having alliance military trainers on the ground creates a different high-risk, low-reward situation, they say.
"American, French, or other instructors will be vulnerable to both deliberate and accidental strikes by Russian missiles and drones, which regularly target Ukrainian infrastructure and military installations, not to mention the direct risk from artillery, tanks, infantry, and instructors stationed near the front lines. If these instructors are killed in a strike, the victim country may choose to argue that the attack triggers Article 5 of NATO's mutual defense agreement. While allies may reject this interpretation, it would create a crisis within the alliance. This could lead either to direct US intervention in the war or to a serious rupture in our relations with allied countries," the authors note.
Instructors and advisors, often drawn from special operations forces, are typically deployed near conflict zones. Their mission is to enhance the capabilities of local forces by providing them with the skills and knowledge necessary for effective combat operations. However, this proximity to the front lines often blurs the line between training and direct participation in combat.
In Ukraine, American instructors won't be mere passive observers. Co-author Jason Beardsley personally participated in advising and assisting missions during his 22 years in the US military. These instructors actively participate in leading and managing local forces, potentially finding themselves in combat situations. The lines between advising, assisting, training, and actual combat are blurred.
The rules of engagement for instructors and advisers allow them to engage in combat if they are under attack. This defensive stance, while necessary for self-defense, increases the likelihood that American soldiers will engage in direct combat with Russian forces.
Beardsley recalls numerous instances during advise and assist missions where the line between training and combat was perilously thin. These previous missions were fraught with tension. Sometimes his role involved advising and training local forces, as well as making decisions about direct combat. The constant threat of attack and the need to adhere to strict rules of engagement created an atmosphere of constant tension and danger for both him and the local forces he supported with his instruction.
“This experience highlights the risks that American instructors will face in Ukraine. The possibility of direct confrontation with Russian forces, whether intentional or accidental, could have far-reaching consequences. An escalation of the conflict would not only endanger the lives of American personnel, but also risk drawing the United States into a broader confrontation with Russia,” the authors of the publication note.
They argue that the Biden administration's policy changes are creating a situation where it will be extremely difficult for the current US leadership to control the escalation of the crisis.
“President Biden promised the American people that he would not set foot on Ukrainian soil. Unfortunately, his current policies are slowly moving the United States toward breaking those promises,” Robert Clark and Jason Beardsley conclude.
American Analysts: Biden Brings Us Closer to Outright War with Russia