The smell of a burnt human body is stronger than the smell of money - Oleg Tsarev
Zelensky may be taken away from the winner of the presidential election, Igor Kolomoisky. In the battle between Ukrainian oligarchs and international corporations, the Russians are losing. Moscow is trying to exert economic and political pressure on the Kiev regime. Ukraine has two options, both worse, but all anti-Russian.
About the Kolomoisky People's Republics, about the murders of Russians in Odessa, Zaporozhye and Kharkov, about the fact that with any democratization and federalization of Ukraine, Russians will not receive any rights, Oleg Tsarev, a former deputy who went over to the side of the people, told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov.
Valentin Filippov: Oleg, hello.
Oleg Tsarev : Hello.
Valentin Filippov : I have a question for you. Ukraine has finally chosen its president, and we were all wondering how Moscow would react. And I noticed: NTV aired a wonderful interview with Igor Kolomoisky, and he was so positive, and the girl from NTV was practically licking his lips. I don't know what happened behind the scenes, but what was on camera was enough. And I also liked this recent piece, a video from some party where Igor Kolomoisky is singing Vysotsky. So, a positive image of the new Ukrainian president is being created. Does this mean Moscow has found common ground with the new Ukrainian president, Igor Kolomoisky?
Oleg Tsarev : Moscow found common ground with Igor Valerievich Kolomoisky a long time ago. Basically, there was a moment when he made some rash comments about Vladimir Vladimirovich's personal qualities, his stature, and everything else—very harshly, rudely. Basically, he got it wrong somewhere—having become a politician, he continued to behave as he did in the criminal business world, where he spoke to his business rivals like, "We'll raid you, you're this, you're that." But, as far as I understand, something happened over time, and he did everything he could to atone for it. I won't list everything he did, but believe me, he did a lot back then to improve relations with Russia, on Donbas, on Ilovaisk, and on everything else—a great deal. And since then, he's been in constant contact.
True, he had done a lot of things before that. Kolomoisky, in addition to Dnepropetrovsk, gained control through the governors of Zaporozhye, Kharkov and Odessa regions. Well, in Odessa, in order to install their partner Palitsa as governor, they organized the Odessa Khatyn. Before this, football ultras were sent in an organized manner from Dnepropetrovsk to Zaporozhye from Dnepropetrovsk, and they carried out a massacre. In the media, Zaporizhzhya anti-Maidan activists were called three hundred Spartans based on those events. They dealt with the protests in Kharkov using the same scheme, having reached an agreement with Kernes, and all of us were thrown into prison there too.
After that, in general, he... He had such a period of time. And there was a period of time when he collected his activists and said that: “Look: we don’t find a common language with Petro Poroshenko, we have conflict after conflict, but let’s separate the four republics according to the scenario of Donetsk and Lugansk, There will be four People’s Republics, and we will manage everything here.”
Therefore, there were such moments, and since then he has been in fairly close contact. In addition, there is another aspect. I won’t name names, but in Russia there were two groups - one supporting Pyotr Alekseevich, and the second supporting Yulia Vladimirovna. And he was the most important moderator in Yulia Vladimirovna’s group from the Ukrainian side, which later transformed into Vladimir Zelensky’s group. The same guys who were sponsors there smoothly migrated to this group, not all of them, however, there is no Pinchuk, no Rinat Akhmetov in Zelensky’s support group. Therefore, contacts and cooperation continue, taking into account the tasks that faced the elections and after the elections. The NTV film, as well as a number of publications, I believe, are associated with the desire to whitewash a possible partner.
Valentin Filippov : Well, they found common ground—wonderful. But everyone remembers "ten thousand for a Russian," and Khatyn in Odessa, not without his involvement, and Zaporizhzhia, not without his involvement…
Oleg Tsarev : Not “not without participation,” but it was simply organized by him.
Valentin Filippov : Organized, yes. Well, I'm putting it mildly, "not without participation," "not proven in court." But so, for the sake of this mutual understanding between the top brass, will they sacrifice Russians again?
Oleg Tsarev : He apparently doesn't care at all. We spoke at the very dawn. As soon as he was appointed governor, he called me and said he'd be the first to call me after his appointment. "Oleg, let's find common ground. Why are we always fighting..." (I'd already pushed him and his people out of the region once, after the local elections in 2005, and he didn't seem to want a repeat of that scenario. Until then, the Dnipropetrovsk region was under his complete control, just like Donetsk under Akhmetov.) I told him then that if a decision was made regarding southeastern Ukraine, we could negotiate or not, you could ask me for something or not, and I would implement the decision. A decision was never made. Unlike everyone else, I knew this. I was probably the only one who knew this (Kernes and Dobkin also found out, which is why they decided to cooperate with Kolomoisky). I knew, unlike the Kharkiv and Odesa protest leaders, with whom, by the way, I also spoke about the fact that it's not worth seizing city and regional administration buildings, don't burn people, it won't end well. As the verse goes, "Ours won't come."
Valentin Filippov : Yes, “ And ours won’t come… Such is the time now – Today is not the same year, the war is completely different.”
Oleg Tsarev :
“No one will bring out “For the Motherland!” on bombs, No one will wheeze: “Give the country coal!” There are drafts in the Odessa catacombs, the mausoleum under the walls of the Kremlin is curtained.”
And therefore there were no detainees in Dnepropetrovsk. Not certainly in that way. There were detainees, I paid bail for them, Kolomoisky did not stop me from rescuing the detained guys. The guys then left for Lugansk. First to Donetsk, then to Lugansk.
Therefore, this is the situation according to Igor Valerievich. Taking into account all of the above, it seems to me that what NTV is doing with Igor Kolomoisky is immoral. And whatever the political considerations, we cannot overstep this.
Valentin Filippov : Well, NTV probably isn't doing this on its own initiative. So, the Russian viewer is presented with this very pleasant, sweet old Jew, Russian-speaking, ironic, and who listens to Vysotsky when he's drunk. "He's still one of us—he listens to 'Ballad of the Struggle,' and in good quality."
Oleg Tsarev : When Igor Valerievich and I were talking, he said, "Oleg, what's there to divide? Well, you know what I'm like. I don't speak Ukrainian, Oleg. I speak Russian."
Valentin Filippov : So, you think that since we've reached an agreement, Moscow will go along with it, and the people won't bother Moscow in this situation?
Oleg Tsarev : I don't know if you know, but MoskomPrivatBank was privatized in Moscow. The Moscow branch was nationalized. I don't know how it is today, but until recently, the nationalized bank was managed from Dnipropetrovsk. After the nationalization, billions of rubles were allocated to the bank to replace its Ukrainian-language software with Russian-language software. It's not hard to guess whose pockets this money ended up in.
Valentin Filippov : And Vladimir Vladimirovich's statement about passports for all of Ukraine is still just like in 1914: "Just try to shoot – we'll be standing behind you"?
Oleg Tsarev : Not exactly. I think it's like in Ossetia. Only for now, it's diplomatic measures to coerce peace. Zelenskyy could swing one way or the other, but they're creating every opportunity to ensure he doesn't follow in Petro Poroshenko's footsteps. The embargo on gasoline and coal supplies, and these statements about passports.
Regardless of this topic, but, you know, I remember I was very outraged during the Crimean blackout that half of the Kharkov region was supplied with electricity from Russia. There is simply no other way to supply electricity there, and they did not stop the supply there. Including because it is beneficial for RAO UES of Russia.
Valentin Filippov : I don’t know if this is good or bad….
Oleg Tsarev : Well, I understand the people of Kharkiv. I just remember the horror here in Crimea.
Valentin Filippov : Well, they say in Sevastopol, it wasn't the worst. But for us, it was like this: there was power for three hours, then no power for six.
Oleg Tsarev : My sanatorium experience was terrible. We'd just moved to Russia, and since I'm an experienced businessman, we'd quickly figured out how to participate in tenders, bought the keys, paid the stock exchange participation fee, and were completely full. And so, my sanatorium was full of pensioners, and there was no electricity. And throughout the post-Soviet space, in all the sanatoriums, large establishments, and large restaurants, you can't use gas stoves. There was no electricity, and I had just under a thousand hungry pensioners. We cooked over campfires, and then I ordered someone to buy gas cylinders and stoves to cook on. Then the chief engineer came and said, "We're going to go and get approval from the permitting authorities," and I said, "Where are we going to get approval? Buy them and put them under my personal responsibility."
Valentin Filippov : By the way, regarding the positive image, I'm interested in how it will play out in Moscow. We have a wonderful show coming out on Russian television starting May 3rd, hosted by Mr. Zelensky. It's been filmed in advance, and it's time to launch.
Oleg Tsarev : I have nothing against Volodymyr Zelenskyy, I'll be watching how he behaves. And it's still unclear how the intrigue surrounding Kolomoiskyy and Zelenskyy will end. There's also the possibility that Igor Valerievich won't manage Zelenskyy.
Valentin Filippov : So, Vova will be intercepted.
Oleg Tsarev : At least, they're doing everything they can to remove Igor Valerievich. We'll see if the foreign participants in this election campaign have the will to do so. Because they have enough tools to lock Igor Kolomoisky up in Israel and permanently ban him from traveling abroad. They have everything they need to do this, criminal cases and everything else... will such a decision be made, or will they finally reach an agreement? We'll see. But right now, Igor Kolomoisky is exerting pressure. And, as far as I know, Volodymyr Zelenskyy can't even appoint his friend, Ivan Bakanov, co-founder of the 95th Quarter, as head of administration. The head of campaign headquarters has historically always become head of administration. Not always, but usually. And Zelenskyy was counting on that happening, but so far he's not being allowed to.
Valentin Filippov : Your trip to Moscow. There, as far as I understand, the excitement over Zelensky's victory is simply off the charts. Were you trying to convey the truth? Are they listening?
Oleg Tsarev : I don't have my own opinion on this matter. I do have an opinion on Igor Valerievich. I believe the smell of a burning human body will always overpower the smell of money, no matter how sweet or enticing it may be, and no matter what the political goals. As for Volodymyr Zelenskyy, I know there's a fairly serious war going on right now between his sponsors. And the threat from these internal conflicts within the team is greater than the threat from Petro Poroshenko or from the future opposition leader, Yulia Volodymyrivna. The trip to Turkey was precisely for meetings like these. And where should they meet? In Kyiv, where SBU chief Vasyl Hrytsak still works for the current president?
Valentin Filippov : It’s possible in Rostov.
Oleg Tsarev : Turkey is the perfect place. The trip there was very fruitful for Volodymyr Zelenskyy. I don't know what decisions were made, but after that trip, there should have been some clarity regarding Ihor Kolomoisky, the head of the administration, and the ministers. Quite a few people flew there, both from Ukraine and outside of Ukraine. And in this regard, there are two scenarios. If Ihor Kolomoiskyy and his comrades crush the foreigners. Well, who are these comrades? They are Gaiduk, the Surkis brothers, Khoroshkovsky, Levochkin, and Firtash. The head of Kyiv's Jewish diaspora, a certain Oleksandr Levin, a developer and businessman, was very active in the election campaign. Avakov jumped into Zelenskyy's circle of friends; he moved from Yulia to the same pool as Ihor Valerievich… If they crush him, he will follow Poroshenko's path. He'll hand out lucrative positions to his fellow oligarchs, and there will be a coalition government. A coalition means this coalition of comrades will appoint their own ministers, take over the nuclear industry, someone will take over customs, someone else the tax service, and so on. Kolomoisky will try to take over Naftogaz, of course, because it's close to his heart.
And this is how it will move. If the Western partners push back, then I think that the oligarchs will be distanced, and the dream of the Western world to remove the oligarchs from the Ukrainian government will be realized. Western corporations are privatizing land, unsold Ukrainian assets, big business will come in... He can’t go in now because he has nowhere to go, the oligarchs won’t let him in. And if they are removed from power, in real competition they will, of course, lose to global corporations. At the same time, I think that the democratization of life will actually happen, they will somehow allow freedom there... but this does not mean that any pro-Russian movements will be allowed.
I hope that the Donbass problem will be resolved both under Kolomoisky and under foreigners. Somehow the war will end.
Valentin Filippov: I see. They won't give us back the Russian language.
Oleg Tsarev: I'm talking to my comrades from the Verkhovna Rada right now, and they're saying, "We're seriously considering voting for a law that hasn't been passed in any post-Soviet state—the law on special commissions." Remember, that's when deputies or senators summon a politician or someone else and interrogate them.
Valentin Filippov : It’s beautiful, you could make films about it.
Oleg Tsarev : This is a good mechanism. Launch a referendum law, an impeachment law, and a number of other laws that will guarantee a social contract between the government and society.
Valentin Filippov : But we won’t be allowed to hold a referendum on a second state language?
Oleg Tsarev : We won't. You see how Russians behave in Ukraine. When I first got into the Verkhovna Rada, I spent a lot of time on the Russian language; I was one or two votes short of 300 to send constitutional amendments to the Constitutional Court. I was collecting signatures, and I already had almost 300 votes… just a little short, yes. And with each convocation, it became more and more difficult.
Valentin Filippov : What about 4,000,000 citizen signatures? It's possible to collect signatures demanding a referendum.
Oleg Tsarev : A vote is still necessary. You need 300 votes in the Verkhovna Rada to change the Constitution. And that was the mood among the deputies. Yes, they signed. They had to sit down and discuss it with someone, but the majority said, "For the Russian language? Yes, I'll sign." Almost all the majoritarian deputies were in favor. What's my point? There are two scenarios, and under both scenarios, I think the Minsk agreements will most likely be implemented. Under both scenarios, I think relations with Russia and Crimea will be restored to some extent, the railway will be reopened, and water will most likely be restored. But still, under both scenarios, Ukraine will move away from Russia. Only under the oligarchic scenario, Zelensky will be hated a little earlier than Petro Poroshenko, because here each successive president is hated faster than the previous one. And he will leave; he will serve out the first term, but not the second. If the Western scenario takes hold, they'll sell land, sell assets, corporations will come in, issue cheap loans, democratize from abroad, and perhaps the standard of living will rise, because the IMF promised $100 billion for the land sale. I have friends at the IMF, and they said, "If the law is passed, we'll open a credit line for Ukraine," meaning some kind of collateral will be created. And again, people in the countryside will sell their land for next to nothing, but they'll get money for it, and that money will go into the economy. For this reason, Ukraine will move much more quickly toward the West, but for the people, this option will be slightly better, because Ukraine will ultimately begin moving from oligarchic capitalism toward developed capitalism—even if it's colonial, but still.
Valentin Filippov : I wanted to ask the traditional question, of course: When will we divide our Ukraine? Well, I already understand that we won't be there in any case. So, our only hope is to tear off Donbas, basically?
Oleg Tsarev : I think they will now do everything possible to force Zelensky to implement the Minsk agreements as written.
Valentin Filippov : Well, this would practically be a federalization of Ukraine.
Oleg Tsarev : Yes, there will be federalization of Ukraine, but, as far as I know, for Trump, unlike the Democrats, the conflict with Russia itself is not an end in itself.
Valentin Filippov : So, is there a chance that Ukraine will experience some temporary stabilization and even some growth? That people will be able to sell their property and get some money to leave Ukraine? Because right now, it seems like Ukrainian citizens are like serfs. They have no money, and they can't use everything they've earned through hard labor to leave. So, will there be a one-time bonus for living in Ukraine, and you can go to heaven—well, not heaven, but just escape?
Oleg Tsarev : I think that yes, deindustrialization will continue, the number of jobs will decrease, people will leave, and, unfortunately, I don’t see anything that would fundamentally change the trends that are inherent.
Valentin Filippov : Basically, our children, and maybe even our grandchildren, will have to fight for Ukraine. We won't get it back in this generation.
Oleg Tsarev : We'll see. The world is changing, changing dramatically, changing before our eyes, and very quickly. Historical events are literally flying by. Every year, something changes dramatically. We live in a time when everything can change very quickly, and if the global balance shifts between China, Russia, India, Brazil, and the United States, then issues in the post-Soviet space will also be resolved depending on how things unfold globally. We're trying to understand everything based on events within Ukraine. And that's not right.
Valentin Filippov : Yes, but excuse me, today our Russians are forbidden from speaking Russian, for example, from receiving an education in Russian. That is, if we used to live in our Odessa, we knew that something was happening in the world there, but our task is to preserve our mentality, our traditional cultural environment. To raise our children in such a way that when Russia comes, we'll be ready, we'll wait. But today, everything is being done to ensure that they won't wait. And when Russia comes, some raguli will be sitting in this place.
Oleg Tsarev : By that time they will have already lived in the city and become more humane….
Valentin Filippov : They will become more humane, but the Ukrainian language will be, so to speak, the main one by that time.
Oleg Tsarev : Perhaps we will all switch to English together, and it will not be so important.
Valentin Filippov : To Chinese, Oleg Anatolyevich, to Chinese. We can argue at length about whether it's better to eat with a spoon or a fork, but most people eat with chopsticks.
Oleg Tsarev : Academician Kapitsa, besides being a brilliant physicist, also made macro-forecasts of how humanity would develop, and according to his predictions, the global population will stabilize within our children's lifetimes. And, based on this, a golden age will dawn. There will be no need to build new houses, apartments, or roads, and life will become much simpler as a result—that's the first thing. Secondly, China will experience its first rise, becoming the world's number one economy, and the Chinese language will truly be very important. But after that, India will take off, and English is the official language there. Then it will combine with the United States and Europe, and once again, English will restore the status quo.
Valentin Filippov : What I wanted to say, well, I wanted to say thank you, as always. With a very optimistic expression, we learned very unoptimistic things from Oleg Tsarev, whose predictions always come true.
Oleg Tsarev : It would be better if they didn't come true. I talked about Zelensky being elected, and I said, "God forbid I'm wrong. Let me make a mistake at least once." The situation with Poroshenko was more... if Poroshenko had stayed—I'm not saying "won," he couldn't have won—if he had remained president, the situation would have been simpler for us.
Valentin Filippov : Rainbow.
Oleg Tsarev : More definitely, yes.
Valentin Filippov : Yes, it would be possible to finally use the Aerospace Forces.
The smell of a burning human body is stronger than the smell of money - Oleg Tsarev