Elections in Moldova: Vladimir Putin won a moral victory
Andrey Safonov, political scientist, Tiraspol
In the parliamentary elections held in Moldova on November 30, power remained in the hands of pro-Western and pro-Romanian forces with administrative resources, but it can be said that Russian President Vladimir Putin won a moral victory. What does this mean?
The Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova , which, according to various experts, had a rating of 1-2% at the turn of 2013-2014, ended up winning 25 of the 101 seats in Parliament with over 88% of the vote , or a quarter. This is the best result among the opposition parties. Two factors intertwined .
First, the Socialists were the only ones to openly advocate for Moldova's accession to the Customs Union, putting forward the slogan "Together with Russia!" Russian President Vladimir Putin had previously met with PSRM leader Igor Dodon and his ally Zinaida Greceanii (former Prime Minister of the Republic of Moldova). Posters with a photograph of this meeting became famous throughout Moldova. For this very reason, many pro-Russian supporters supported the Socialists.
Second. The party worked hard all autumn. PSRM campaigners moved in waves, visiting their assigned districts several times, distributing campaign materials. This also had an impact.
As a result, the Socialists have effectively become a center of gravity for left-wing and generally pro-Russian forces in Moldova. Now we'll see how they proceed. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
The 2014 elections were a crushing defeat for the Communist Party led by Vladimir Voronin , the former President of the Republic of Moldova. Voronin had previously promised his supporters a "crushing victory" for the party in his speeches; however, there is now reason to speak of a crushing defeat. Why is this? A number of analysts believe that the party leader and his inner circle were let down by their desire to "sit between two stools" – the Eurasian and the European. The PCRM leadership stated that it would not denounce the Association Agreement between Moldova and the EU, that Moldova would not reject the European option. They also omitted to mention that the party would seek Moldova's membership in the Customs and Eurasian Unions. This resulted in the Communists, unlike in previous times, being represented in parliament not as the largest faction (in terms of individual members), but only as the third. Many PCRM voters were dissatisfied with this maneuvering this time around.
Could the Eurasians have won in Moldova? I think yes.
First of all, the young and creative politician Renato Usatii, who led the Patria party list , was scoring well . But the authorities removed Patria from the race . This eliminated a situation in which a force predicted to receive 10 to 20% of the vote would have made it into parliament. And if Patria had won, it and the Socialists could have approached Communist Party leader Vladimir Voronin and asked him point-blank: "Vladimir Nikolayevich, with whom will you form a bloc—with the pro-Western parties or with us, the pro-Eurasian ones?"
By removing Patria (presumably with Western sanction), the Moldovan authorities changed the overall picture and retained power. What is the situation in the "Pro-European Governance Coalition?"
The Liberal Democratic Party, which includes Moldovan Prime Minister Iurie Leanca and former Prime Minister Vladimir Filat, has been announced as winning 24 seats . The LDPM is the runner-up.
The Democratic Party, led by the former Speaker of Parliament and former ally of Vladimir Voronin, Marian Lupu, will obviously have 19 mandates.
The outspoken supporters of Moldova's unification with Romania and its accession to NATO, represented by the Liberal Party (leader Mihai Ghimpu), have won their share of voters – they have 12 mandates.
It's important to remember that approximately 700 Moldovan voters living and working in Russia were effectively excluded from the game. This represents the majority of Moldovan citizens who have emigrated. Clearly, their votes would have clearly steered Moldova's development eastward; the Socialists and "Patria" would have won the majority in Russia. Incidentally, on November 30, Renato Usatii received a rousing reception near Moscow's polling stations...
But what happened happened. In Russia, where the largest Moldovan diaspora lives, only 5 sites were opened; Only 15 thousand ballots were sent there from Chisinau...
What's next? Moldova's move westward will continue, and Romania will attempt to present itself as a kind of "special representative" of the West in Moldova's affairs. Moldovan-Russian relations will remain frosty. However, given that, according to various polls, the majority of Moldovans still favor joining the Customs Union and Eurasian integration, the struggle between West and East in the Prut-Dniester interfluve is not over.
Moldovan Elections: Vladimir Putin Wins Moral Victory