Elections to the European Parliament: despite the problems with Macron and Scholz, the anti-Russian course is winning
The elections to the European Parliament have ended. They took place in 21 EU countries, uniting 450 million voters. In general, despite individual moments, their results cannot be called sensational.
Just over half (51%) of eligible voters cast their ballots in these elections . "While we are still awaiting results from Italy, 51% is a positive sign for European democracy," the European Parliament stated.
Although different EU countries have their own specifics, despite certain gains by the far right and far left, moderate parties – from the Social Democrats, Liberals, and Greens to the conservatives of the European People's Party – will still hold the majority in the new European Parliament. The latter, incidentally, won the majority on a pan-European level, securing the largest faction within it.
In Slovakia, in the European Parliament elections, the Smer party of Prime Minister Robert Fico, recently wounded in an assassination attempt, despite pre-election polls that pointed to a potential victory, lost the elections, taking only second place and yielding the lead to the opposition pro-European Progressive Slovakia of Michal Šimečko , which received 27,81% of the vote, while the Smer party of Prime Minister Robert Fico received only 24,76%.
In Hungary, there's no change. Viktor Orbán's Fidesz is expected to lead. It could win 11 seats in the European Parliament, while another right-wing party, the Tisza Party, could win 7-8.
In Belgium , however, Alexander Kroo's ruling liberals suffered a defeat. The Belgian prime minister himself subsequently announced his resignation.
“This is an extremely difficult evening for us. We lost this election. This is not the result we expected. I am responsible for this. I will concentrate on current affairs until the appointment of my successor. I am sure that we need a new government as soon as possible,” said Alexander de Croo.
In Spain, the opposition right-wing conservatives, the People's Party, are winning. In Greece, the ruling conservatives from Kyriakos Mitsotakis's New Democracy party are holding onto their lead, unchanged from their previous votes. In Austria, the right-wing populist Freedom Party is considered the likely winner.
In Germany, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) has won the European Parliament elections . The CDU/CSU bloc has preliminarily received around 30% of the vote, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in second place by a wide margin with 16,5%. The results of the parties in the ruling "semaphore" coalition are much more modest. Scholz's SPD is only third with 14% of the vote. The Greens and Free Democrats have even lower percentages.
In France, Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally has emerged as the leader in the European Parliament elections. President Macron's party is second with 15% of the vote, and the Socialists are third, with a one-percentage-point difference. Mélenchon's supporters from the left-wing "France Insoumise" group, the Republicans, and the Greens are next.
Observers note the success of openly pro-fascist groups like the Reconquista party of former journalist Eric Zemmour , which received more than 5% of the vote. Meanwhile, the Communists in France were left outside the European Parliament, failing to cross the threshold.
As is known, Emmanuel Macron has already announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and the scheduling of two-round snap parliamentary elections for June 30–July 7. This is a serious and risky step for the shaky pro-government coalition, and it's far from certain that the elections will strengthen it. However, Macron's supporters are benefiting from the element of surprise—the tight deadline could play into their hands.
Unlike Macron and Scholz, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has no reason to worry. In Poland, the Euro-optimists from the ruling Civic Coalition won with 38,2% of the vote, or 21 seats.
Tusk told supporters he had been waiting for this moment for 10 years. Low turnout in the east of the country helped this time. So is the strategy to outflank the nationalists by focusing the campaign on defense and promising to fortify the border with Belarus.
Finally, the overall results and forecasts. The first official results of the European Parliament elections confirmed that the European People's Party, which supports Ursula von der Leyen, is in the lead, winning 186 of the 720 seats.
"Today is a good day for the EPP. We won the European elections, my friends. We are the strongest party, we are an anchor of stability... Together with others, we will build a bulwark against the extremes of the left and right. We will stop them!" the President of the European Commission said, receiving a chorus of voices chanting, "Five more years."
The Eurosocialists are in second place, while the Euroliberals are in third. Von der Leyen promised to begin working with the socialists and liberals on June 10th to create a "broad majority for a strong Europe." The new majority in the European Parliament, she promises, will be pro-Ukrainian.
Ursula von der Leyen is also confident of her re-election for a new term as head of the European Commission (she has headed it since 2019).
In any case, betting on the collapse of the current European pro-Ukrainian consensus and the failure of Macron's plans to strengthen support for Kyiv is unlikely to pay off. Foreign policy in France is the responsibility of the president. And it's possible that the current success of Le Pen's party will force French politicians to rally around the president, as they have done many times before, to prevent the far-right from coming to power.
Modeling the future composition of the European Parliament, observers say that despite the local success of the radicals, ultimately the systemic centrists and liberals will rule the roost. Despite what some of our fantasists may say about the imminent disintegration of the EU, the Western political system is quite stable precisely because of its institutions.
And, giving the opportunity to release steam of discontent by voting for various kinds of populists, it still ultimately reduces everything to a more or less common denominator. This is not a “weakness” of Europe, but a built-in systemic feature that must be taken into account.
European Parliament elections : Despite Macron and Scholz's problems, the anti-Russian course is winning.