Scholz's time is running out: Politico gave a breakdown of the likelihood of re-elections in Germany
The European version of Politico analyzes the prospects of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the “traffic light” coalition he leads in light of the recent elections to the European Parliament, which Scholz and his allies lost decisively, losing by a significant margin to the German right and far right.
“Time is running out for Olaf Scholz,” the publication claims. “While all eyes are on early elections in France, Germans may also soon face early voting. The question now is not whether the government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz will survive, but for how long,” the publication says.
The CDU/CSU winners, Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, have already called for early elections in Germany. "Scholz no longer has any legitimacy or credibility among the population, so he should call new elections, like Macron ," Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder declared on German public television.
However, the "traffic light coalition" responded that they weren't considering early elections "for a second." Early elections in Germany are only possible if the chancellor loses her majority in the Bundestag. But none of the parties in the ruling coalition currently wants to leave , as doing so would mean losing their ministerial positions.
"Scholz, the biggest loser of the evening, made a cameo appearance at his party headquarters to take a few selfies before going AWOL, leaving behind the unenviable task of explaining his Social Democrats' worst federal election performance in more than a century.
If Scholz thought he could escape the reckoning after his party lost a humiliating third place to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), he is probably mistaken. Scholz says that early elections are not in his plans, but most likely it does not depend on him,” the publication notes.
However, there have long been serious disagreements within the "traffic light" party—for example, over how to plug the hole in the 2025 budget, estimated at €20-50 billion. Finance Minister and FDP coalition leader Christian Lindner wants to cut social spending, while many Social Democrats and Greens advocate taking on new loans. After the European Parliament elections, this confrontation has become even more heated.
Even a commentator for the left-wing newspaper Die Zeit called for new elections this summer. "As in France, the European elections were a vote of no confidence in the government , " wrote Alain Posener.
While there are no firm plans for early voting, senior lawmakers in Scholz's three-party coalition told POLITICO they are preparing for such a scenario.
Despite all the efforts of the Scholz camp to defend him, it cannot be denied that just two and a half years into his tenure, the troubled Scholz government has reached a breaking point. Plagued by infighting and, according to most critics, simple incompetence, the Scholz cabinet is the most unpopular government in modern German history.
More than two-thirds of Germans now express dissatisfaction with the coalition. Scholz's personal approval rating also hit a negative record: over 70 percent of Germans are dissatisfied with his performance.
After failing to implement a landmark reform to transition Germany's heating infrastructure from fossil fuels to renewable energy, the Scholz government suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of the country's highest court, which ruled its budget unconstitutional. The court's November ruling deprived the coalition of tens of billions of euros it had hoped to use to finance the rest of its program.
Since then, the governing alliance has been in squabble, with two left-wing parties, Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens, in constant battle with the fiscally conservative Free Democratic Party (FDP), led by Finance Minister Christian Lindner.
Simply put, the SPD and Greens want to spend more money, and the FDP, citing Germany's constitutional debt brake (and its own fiscal orthodoxy), less.
“This standoff is sure to come to a head in the coming weeks as coalition parties enter the final round of negotiations over the 2025 budget. The sides want to reach an agreement by early July before the summer holidays, but with all sides scrambling to salvage their political fortunes, an agreement appears unlikely,” predicts Politico.
Scholz said calls for early elections are likely to become even louder in September, when elections in three states are held in the east of the country, where the AfD is strongest; the party is likely to win all three election campaigns.
“This is another reason why Scholz’s days as chancellor may well be numbered,” the publication summarizes.
Scholz's time is running out : Politico has provided a breakdown of the likelihood of re-elections in Germany.