There will be no war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. What about the USA?
Saudi-Iranian relations have become a symbol of how quickly everything changes in today's unpredictable world.
Last fall, analysts seriously thought about the possibility of a war between these two countries, but today, commenting on the official statements made by Tehran and Riyadh on March 10 about the imminent restoration of diplomatic relations broken off in 2016, they are already talking about the emergence of the contours of a new coalition that will seriously change the balance in the region.
And a formal exchange of embassies will create an additional channel of communication between countries and response to emerging threats.
“As a result of the negotiations, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to resume diplomatic relations and reopen their embassies... within two months,” Iranian news agency IRNA reported, citing a joint statement by the two sides.
Almost friendly under the Pahlavi Shahs, relations between the Saudis and Iranians after the Ayatollah Revolution in Iran have never been particularly smooth. Both countries - with claims to a special role in the region and in the Islamic world as a whole - are competitors in the international trade of hydrocarbons, but at the same time they are also members of the OPEC cartel, a kind of union of world oil and gas exporters.
Differences in ideological platforms play an important role as the driver of the hegemonic aspirations of Iran and SA. If Iran has a Shiite version of Islam, taken as the basis for building a theocratic republic according to the precepts of the Islamic Revolution of 1979, then the ideological legitimation of the Saudi monarchy is based on Sunni Wahhabism, inherited by the current ruling dynasty from the Emirate of Diriyah, which became the core of the political unification of the peninsula at the beginning of the last century .
And although in recent years a number of religious leaders of the kingdom have disavowed the preaching of Wahhabism, denying its status as a state religion, this is still such a politically determined deceit.
It is these considerations that dictated the famous words of the Vice-Speaker of the Advisory Council of the SA, Muhammad al-Jefri, to members of the European Parliament Committee on International Affairs:
“We do not have religious values that are called Wahhabism... We have one religion – Islam.”
In other words, it is beneficial for the ruling circles in Riyadh to declare their version of Islam not as something separate and special, but, on the contrary, as mainstream and universal for the entire Islamic world.
Actually, the trigger for the latest cooling of relations with Iran was precisely events on the religious front: the execution in 2016 in SA of a well-known critic of the Saudi monarchy, Shiite imam Nimr al-Nimr and dozens of his supporters. The pogrom of the SA embassy in Tehran caused by this event became the basis for Riyadh to sever ties with Iran. The death of hundreds of Iranian pilgrims during the Hajj in Mecca that same year was the icing on the cake.
Added to this were political differences, primarily the protracted SA war against the pro-Iranian Houthis in Yemen and Riyadh’s persistent desire to establish in Yemen the power of its puppet Rishad Mohammed al-Alimi, whose residence is “temporarily” located not in the presidential palace in Sanaa, but in capital of SA.
Add to this the ongoing actual “friendly occupation” by Saudi troops at the request of the local monarchy dynasty of Bahrain populated by Shiites and the oppression of the Shiite minority in the SA itself and we get that explosive cocktail that, under certain circumstances, could well lead both countries to war.
But it seems that the war is being canceled for now, once again confirming the truth of the common postulate in international affairs: “Who are we friends against?” The fact is that both regimes – Tehran and Saudi – have a common enemy in Israel.
The latter, as is known, has in recent years escalated its anti-Iranian policy, raising the stakes over and over again and demonstrating openly aggressive gestures such as attacks on Iranian energy facilities and drone factories.
At the end of its reign, the United States played along with Israel, not only taking the unprecedented step of recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel despite the protests of the entire Arab world, but also destroying with a targeted strike an important big shot from the Iranian IRGC, Qassem Soleimani.
Then, let me remind you, Trump ruled in the States, and the Prime Minister of Israel was “Bibi” Netanyahu, who had excellent relations with American Republicans, but spoiled with the Democrats. Today in the States, the republics are again pushing the democrats out of power in the hope of revenge, and in Israel, the Likud with Netanyahu at its head has returned to power, immediately receiving in retaliation the unabated left-liberal Maidan, secretly supported by the Democrats in the States.
At the same time, US Democrats are doing their best to restrain aggressive Israeli attempts towards Iran. Not because they love the ayatollahs there (in fact, they can’t stand them), but because it’s not the time.
Bogged down in Ukraine and with a potential Chinese front in mind, Washington hawks cannot afford the early opening of another front, no matter how tempting the idea of lighting a fire on Russia’s southern flank may be. But there are too many variables with their own interests that can confuse all the cards and take the situation in an unforeseen direction. For example, Turkey, where there is now a decisive battle for power.
Over the years, the nature of relations between the SA and the USA has also changed. Under Trump, the administration of the American president and the royal court of the bin Salmans were inseparable. The positive peak of these relations was the well-known “Abraham Accords”, when, in exchange for immunity from prosecution and sanctions received by bin Salman in the case of the murder of journalist Khashoggi, relations between Israel and the Gulf monarchies were normalized and the foundation for a stable anti-Iranian coalition in the Middle East appeared.
Under Biden, relations between CA and the States have become noticeably colder. No, it’s not that the countries have become enemies, it’s just that the difference in interests makes itself felt more and more clearly.
The Saudis have chosen to make money from sanctions against Russia rather than blindly follow Western policies to their detriment. Thus, the SA, along with Turkey and the UAE, has become one of the hubs for the flow of parallel imports to Russia, bypassing Western sanctions, and therefore Riyadh is now experiencing pressure from American diplomacy. Russian oligarchs also hide their capital here.
In response, American media close to the Democrats began to accuse the Saudis of bribing the Donald Trump administration: the former US president allegedly received billions of dollars from the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, through his son-in-law David Kushner.
When Trump left the White House, the investment fund Affinity Partners, founded by Kushner, immediately attracted $2 billion in investments from Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund. And the Trump-owned chain of golf courses “suddenly” received large-scale lucrative contracts from the Saudi company LIV Golf, and the corporation itself was connected to a giant golf resort project in Oman worth $4 billion.
Now all these awls have come out of the bag to the accompaniment of the fears of leading figures of the Democratic Party that Trump, who is again aiming for the White House, has allegedly been bought by the Saudis and will be a conductor of their interests.
And then, taking advantage of the moment, China appears on the scene with its peacekeeping plans. And not only in relation to Ukraine. It is not for nothing that the Celestial Empire points out the need to ensure the security of the logistics chains and routes it needs. And Beijing absolutely does not need its “One Belt, One Road” project to run into the reefs of many local conflicts.
The reaction to this news in the region is also expected. If people in Syria and Houthi Yemen are very happy, then in Israel they do not hide their deep disappointment. Still would. After all, China is becoming a world mediator, while Israel is losing hope for an anti-Iranian coalition in the region.
In Beijing itself, it seems that after completing all the necessary procedures for the transfer of power from Xi Jingping to Xi Jingping, they are not inclined to “knead their tits” and quickly got down to business, clearly outlining their foreign policy priorities. China, which has raised the banner of the “multi-vector” policy, intends to achieve its goals on the world stage by balancing its participation in key world conflicts.
In this sense, the truce between Iran and Saudi Arabia reached in Beijing speaks for itself - in the near future, ensuring security in the region is the most important priority for China. After all, if diplomacy screws up there and the guns start talking, then the subsequent chain reaction will affect everyone and bury Chinese plans for decades to come.
If this case is successful, then this model of political settlement may later be extended to relations between Russia and Ukraine. So those analysts who advise especially closely monitoring the negotiations on Iran and Beijing’s approaches to resolving this crisis are right.
Still, one should not overestimate the significance of the agreements reached. Although they removed a possible military conflict between the countries from the agenda, however, over the long term, the traditional rivalry between Riyadh and Tehran has not gone away, as well as the growing contradictions of a more global order between the United States, China and the EU, each of which views the region from the point of view view of their interests.
So it is quite possible that by removing the threat of a local war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the Chinese have only brought forward the hot phase of their own conflict with America.
There will be no war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. What about the US?