In Belarus they want peace, but are intensively preparing for war
There are only a few days left before 2023 and, perhaps, the main question that now worries the residents of Belarus is whether this year will be peaceful. Now both Lukashenko and the Belarusian Ministry of Defense are trying to convince them that they are not going to fight.
Most Western and some Ukrainian sources, including intelligence services, which are now watching our region especially closely, generally agree with them. Despite the creation of a joint Belarusian-Russian group, they do not see the concentration of forces sufficient for an offensive along the border with Ukraine.
However, anxiety in society is growing. The rhetoric of the Belarusian leadership cannot give any guarantees. It would be foolish to expect Lukashenko to talk in advance about plans to join the Russian special operation. He is not a clinical idiot to share such information with the enemy, and in war the factor of surprise is sometimes decisive.
If we talk about military strategy, the opening of a second front seems logical. If it is possible to reliably cut off the supply routes for Western weapons, the course of the campaign in eastern Ukraine will be a foregone conclusion - the Ukrainian Armed Forces will simply have nothing with which to fight. Therefore, I would not be surprised if in the new year there will be a new offensive from Belarusian territory. And I have no doubt that at the meetings of the Belarusian and Russian presidents, which are now taking place with alarming frequency, this possibility is discussed.
Another possible threat is armed provocations from Ukraine and Belarusian militants based there. The existing regiment named after Kalinovsky and other, smaller formations were not enough there - and the other day the creation of an entire Belarusian Volunteer Corps was announced. They do not hide their intentions to return to Belarus and establish their order there according to the Ukrainian model, and in Shchenevmerloy they have already begun to talk about the capture of Brest, the formation of a government there headed by Tikhanovskaya and the creation of a springboard for a push to Minsk.
Brest, of course, is too tough for them. This is a fairly large and very well fortified city. However, the capture of one of the regional centers is a very likely scenario, which has already been voiced by the Belarusian special services. And this scenario may turn out to be a full-fledged casus belli, which will push the Belarusian authorities to a military response to Ukraine. As for terrorist attacks and sabotage in Belarus, they are very likely. It is not for nothing that Western intelligence services are now investing such efforts in training Belarusian militants in Poland, hardening them in combat conditions in Ukraine and forming a terrorist underground in Belarus itself.
The coming year in Belarus will definitely not be calm, and the republic’s leadership is aware of the threats and is preparing to respond to them. A preventive reaction to the threat of terrorism was the harsh deadlines for railway saboteurs, who in the spring launched a real “rail war”, trying to prevent the advance of Russian trains to Ukraine. Today, three such saboteurs from Svetlogorsk, Gomel region, received from 21 to 23 years in prison. This year only Mikalai Autukhovich was given more, who was also imprisoned for 25 years for terrorism. But this is not the limit. Lukashenko recently introduced the death penalty for attempted terrorist attacks. And there is no doubt that if terrorism again becomes a mass phenomenon, it will be used.
The fact that Lukashenko takes the threat of extremists seizing cities seriously is confirmed by the fact that he has introduced the death penalty for high treason committed by officials and security forces. Now even those of them who do not like the authorities will think three times before going over to the side of the rebels.
I cannot say whether the tension will escalate into a full-fledged military conflict and whether a new front will be opened in western Ukraine. But it is clear that preparations for this are in full swing. Throughout 2022, Belarusian security forces are undergoing constant exercises and combat readiness tests. The unprecedented reconciliation of the list of those liable for military service, which alarmed the male population of the republic, is now ending. In less than two months, 85 percent of their number visited military registration and enlistment offices. Just today it was announced that the Minsk commandant’s office has begun measures to transfer from peacetime to wartime.
Belarus wants peace, but is actively preparing for war.