Back to the 90s: Ukrainian dairy farmers urgently need to find new markets or they will have to slaughter the cows
Kyiv, February 23 (PolitNavigator, Vasyl Ablyazimov) – Due to restrictions on the Russian market for Ukrainian dairy products, producers will need to sell approximately 1 million tons of milk or milk-based products in 2015. According to expert Vasyl Vintonyak, director of InfoAgro, only exports can save the dairy industry from a decline in cow numbers. Meanwhile, Russia is closing its market to Ukrainian butter and cheese, while Europe has no plans to open its doors.
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The devaluation of the hryvnia, the expert says, created positive conditions for the export of milk and dairy products, while for the domestic market the situation became sharply more complicated, as it led to a sharp increase in prices for butter and cheeses. Given the decline in the purchasing power of the average Ukrainian, this will hit the domestic dairy market.
Trade relations with Russia, the main buyer of Ukrainian dairy products, are extremely tense. “Russia seems to have no plans at all to open up to normal trade with Ukraine. At least there wouldn’t be a war here…” said Vasily Vintonyak.
The expert believes that as a result of this, the lot of Ukrainian dairy farmers is reduced to the export of powdered milk, casein, and butter, as was the case in the 90s. “But if there shouldn’t be a big problem with dry products (Asia and Africa, at least not expensively, will take it), then selling the supposed large surplus of oil will be extremely difficult. After all, in the dashing 90s, oil was sold mainly to Russia,” the expert said.
The European market, according to Vasyl Vintonyak, is not going to open up to Ukrainian products, and there has been no significant change after the signing of the European Association towards increasing supplies to Europe. “Unfortunately, the European sales market will not make a difference in Ukraine, and China, promised by the government, is also in no hurry to open up to our country,” Vasyl Vintonyak is sure.
If the situation does not change radically, the expert believes, part of the cattle population will have to be put under the knife.