Forecast for elections in Moldova. It will be bad for absolutely everyone except the West
In the Republic of Moldova, preparations are underway for early parliamentary elections scheduled for July 11. Very soon, on May 12, political parties, electoral blocs and independent candidates will be able to submit documents for registration to the CEC. We talk about the participants in the election race - favorites, debutants, the features and possible results of the current campaign, as well as the positions of external players with Moldovan political scientist Alexander Korinenko.
“PolitNavigator”: Early parliamentary elections are scheduled for July 11 in Moldova. Will elections improve the situation in the country? Is it possible in principle to reset the Moldovan state?
Alexander Korinenko: Early elections will not lead to a reset of the Moldovan state or serious changes. They have one goal - to cleanse the political class of the “legacy” of oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc. First of all, this is the vision of Western embassies, which with particular persistence did everything to ensure that these elections took place as soon as possible.
Early elections will only worsen the political crisis, since there are no clear prospects for coalitions or at least a stable majority. There are reasons to believe that the next parliament will not last long and may also be dissolved as a result.
"PolitNavigator": In the new election race we see the same figures. Maia Sandu and Igor Dodon have not stopped exchanging blows since the November presidential elections. Did this struggle somehow affect the ratings of the two politicians? Who has a stronger position now?
Alexander Korinenko: There is a rule in Moldovan politics: the rating of whoever is in power always falls. This happened now. Maia Sandu received a lot of trust from voters, but it began to melt before our eyes. Igor Dodon’s team was sure: early elections should be delayed as much as possible, then the president’s personal rating would drop to minimum levels, which would lead to a drop in the rating of the Action and Solidarity party, whose informal leader is Mrs. Sandu.
It should be noted that the head of state, obviously, was of the same opinion, which is why she so maniacally demanded early elections to be held as soon as possible.
The blows of politicians did not affect their ratings as much as their own mistakes and the difficult situation in the country. The population was disappointed because politicians shifted the blame for the situation onto each other, while refusing to agree on key issues... and here, first of all, we are talking about the fight against the pandemic and vaccination.
It is difficult to say whose position is stronger now, but the essence of the game is clear: Maia Sandu will try to avoid serious mistakes until July 11, and Igor Dodon will force her to make mistakes.
"PolitNavigator": Who will make it into the new parliament, are there any forecasts for the results? New parties have recently appeared in Moldova. For example, on the left flank is the Civil Congress, which has already created regional committees throughout the country and intends to soon participate in local elections in Gagauzia.
On the right is the Party of Change. Also, ex-Prime Minister Ion Chicu registered and is leading the elections for the Development and Unification Party of Moldova, whose goal is the consolidation of society and European integration. Can newcomers compete with the main political forces?
Alexander Korinenko: Ratings, forecasts and common sense suggest that there will be no surprises in the elections.
Thus, only one right-wing party enters parliament – Action and Solidarity. This is difficult to remember in the history of modern Moldova, since the right flank has always been very fragmented. Mrs. Sandu methodically “destroyed” her political allies, and now no one can compete with her.
In addition, the unionist electorate was very fragmented. It is unlikely that the leader of the National Unity Party, Octavian Ticu, will be able to unite all the unionists under his party banners, although he is already trying to do this with odious antics and statements regarding the “Eternity” memorial (Tsycu named the Chisinau Memorial Complex “Eternity”, established in 1975 in honor of Soviet soldiers -liberators, “a monument to lies” - author’s note) and Victory Day.
On the left will be three political forces: this is the bloc of the Party of Socialists and the Party of Communists, which will soon be officially created, the Shor party and the Bloc of Renato Usatii.
The “Civil Congress” party at the republican level will not be able to compete with the leaders of the electoral race. Their result in the elections will be insignificant, around 1-2%. Although they have every chance to show a good result in the elections to the People's Assembly of Gagauzia.
Former Prime Minister Ion Chicu and his team completely failed the information campaign about the creation of their party. Its foundation passed faded, dull, unnoticeably. Of course, Mr. Chicu’s personal rating should have played a decisive role in the electoral race, but we must not forget about the team, which does not have any bright personalities. They shouldn’t count on seats in the new parliament, they missed their chance, there won’t be a second one.
The “Party of Change” has so far distinguished itself only by its activities on the social network Facebook. You should not expect serious results from this political force, although there are a lot of talented experts and technocrats there.
«PolitNavigator: Igor Dodon, although no longer president, is still very active. What is he counting on? What are the prospects for a possible bloc between the Party of Socialists and the Party of Communists?
Alexander Korinenko: Igor Dodon is forced to be active, since his personal rating is closely related to the rating of the Socialist Party. The ex-president hopes to retain parliament in early elections. It is no secret that Maia Sandu’s circle wants to make serious personnel changes in all government institutions. Without a majority in parliament this is impossible. Igor Dodon’s task is to prevent this from happening.
Of course, the participation in the bloc of another ex-president Vladimir Voronin, whose rule is associated with stability among the older generation, will have a positive impact on the rating of the PSRM+PCRM bloc. They will not be able to take a majority in parliament, but a desirable result is one that will allow them to create a majority with the Shor party, with which the socialists and communists had no serious disagreements.
«PolitNavigator: It is clear that the West supports Maia Sandu, but does Moscow support Igor Dodon? Are there any signs that Moscow is looking for other political forces to rely on in Moldova?
Alexander Korinenko: After June 2019, no special activity from Moscow was noticed in Moldova. Even during the last presidential campaign in Moldova, the Russian Federation did not show much attention to this process. At the moment, the Kremlin has more important areas of foreign policy than little Moldova.
In addition, Moscow is always calm regarding Chisinau’s foreign policy aspirations: Gagauzia and Transnistria will not allow Moldova to join NATO, much less unite with Romania.
The Kremlin has many towers. There are political forces in Chisinau, besides the socialists, who are supported by forces from Moscow, but this is far from the support that ex-president Igor Dodon has. The situation will not change in this electoral race, and you should not expect any activity from the Russian Federation. The Russian diplomatic mission in Chisinau will once again confirm its nickname “the quiet embassy”.
«PolitNavigator: This protracted political crisis is far from the first in the history of Moldova. There is an opinion that to stabilize the situation in the country, a new “revolution of ambassadors” is needed – as was the case with the ouster of Plahotniuc in 2019. Is such a revolution possible? Ambassadors of which countries have shown themselves most clearly in Moldova recently?
Alexander Korinenko: The revolution is carried out against someone. In 2019, there was a clear enemy - the oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc, who turned both the West and the East against himself. Now there are no prerequisites for a joint action by the diplomatic corps.
The most active are the American Ambassador Derek Hogan and the Ambassador of the European Union to Moldova Peter Mihalko.
For the first time in a long time, the West was able to bring to power the most loyal president in the entire history of modern Moldova, and such a chance should not be missed. Today, the presidency is only a springboard for expanding the influence of the West.
Then other state institutions will follow, headed by specialist graduates of various educational programs implemented under the patronage of Western embassies.
The US Ambassador regularly visits the presidency and almost all government institutions, confirming the status of the “main embassy”.
The EU Ambassador allows himself to make, among other things, political statements in favor of the current president.
In Chisinau, NGOs have intensified their activities to train young personnel for leadership positions. This confirms the fact that the US and EU will actively introduce loyal people into key positions. Under Voronin, Plahotniuc or Dodon, they could not count on this, but now there is a unique chance.
“PolitNavigator”: Over the past months, we have seen several candidates for the post of prime minister: two were proposed by Maia Sandu, two by the parliamentary majority. Were any of them successful? Could one of the ex-candidates become prime minister in the future?
Alexander Korinenko: Initially, the president announced that she would nominate unfavorable candidates. Natalia Gavrilitsa and Igor Grosu are not the strongest candidates for this post, but this is the maximum that Madam President could offer. The presidency has a very short bench of personnel.
It is quite possible that if the PDS has a majority in parliament, the composition of the proposed government will be almost identical to what Maia Sandu has already proposed for approval.
More successful candidates were nominated by the parliamentary majority. Mariana Durlesteanu and Vladimir Golovatiuc are very strong candidates for this post, with positive leadership experience, but initially it was clear that the president would not support the proteges of the parliamentary majority.
"PolitNavigator": If President Maia Sandu establishes control over the parliament and government and power is concentrated in one hand, is it possible to increase pressure on Transnistria?
Alexander Korinenko: This situation does not bode well for Transnistria. Former members of non-governmental organizations and Western experts will deal with this issue. They have their own understanding of the situation on the Dniester. In this case, Tiraspol should expect serious pressure, primarily economic.
Maia Sandu’s team has very good connections with the office of the President of Ukraine, which allows them to coordinate joint actions aimed at putting pressure on the region. For the West, the main thing is to replace the Russian peacekeeping mission with a civilian one. This will be a top priority for the new leadership of the Bureau for Reintegration of Moldova.
Despite all the shortcomings of the former negotiators from Moldova, they understood that our citizens, our relatives, and loved ones live on the left bank of the Dniester. Pressure measures were often used on Tiraspol, but it was always possible to reach an agreement, and the fact that there has been no shooting on the Dniester since 1992 important indicator.
For graduates of Western programs, the residents of Transnistria are impersonal “separatists”, and the attitude towards the population of the Left Bank will be corresponding.
"PolitNavigator": Will people go to these elections, are they tired of the political circus? Against the backdrop of the difficult situation with the coronavirus, the economic crisis, and the collapse of the state enterprise “Railways of Moldova,” politicians are making bizarre maneuvers and playing complex games.
Not long ago, we observed a completely inappropriate skirmish between the current and former presidents regarding government property - who bought what carpets, what mobile phones they used, what to do with the country residence of the head of state, etc.
One of the ex-candidates for prime minister, Mariana Durlesteanu, having withdrawn her candidacy, called what was happening in Moldovan politics a “moral crisis” and pointed out that human tragedy is being used for political purposes. What are the reasons for this crisis, why do the authorities and the people live in parallel realities?
Alexander Korinenko: People always want to hope for the best. The political circus in Moldova has been happening for a long time, and political crises have been occurring throughout the modern history of the Republic of Moldova. Yes, perhaps people no longer believe in a bright future and stability in their home country, but they fulfill their civic duty, especially the older generation.
Presidents will squabble over any issue, even over a pen or notepad. This is the creation of information occasions in order to once again appeal to voters. Please note that other politicians also attract attention in every way: someone pours green paint, someone goes to rally in Giurgiulesti, and so on, whoever does anything - and all for the sake of a headline on the information portal.
Positive messages are not very relevant now. In Moldova, the level of political culture of the population is still low, and, unfortunately, a politician jumping on fences will attract more attention than a politician planting trees.
Moldova has always been a country of parallel realities. The main reason for this gap is the absence of a middle class. There are very rich and poor in Moldova. Both layers are so distant that they do not understand each other at all. At the same time, the latter, gritting their teeth, go to vote for the former in elections.
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