Poroshenko is back
After today's votes in the Rada, Ukraine is one step closer to receiving an IMF loan and at the same time to an acute political crisis and early re-elections.
Even in the morning there was no sign of a storm. On Sunday, politicians and their servants went to bed with the conviction that the upcoming extraordinary session of parliament on Monday would be boring and routine - after the unexpected release of compromising evidence against the brother of the presidential administrator Andrei Ermak, a kind of “nullification” of the already seemingly agreed upon agenda took place - the most controversial issues for which the votes were not collected and were put aside on the table. What remains is the fight against coronavirus, the budget and the appointment of two ministers to the government - finance and health.
However, the fact that the bargaining went on literally until the last minute is demonstrated by a demonstrative slap in the face of the president's deputies: after dismissing Yemets and Umansky, the Rada demonstratively failed to approve their replacements . Moreover, both times, only two or three votes were needed for a positive result. As a result, the appointment of the Minister of Energy was removed from the discussion altogether, out of harm's way. The government's proposed budget cuts for this year were also defeated.
So the deputies were forced to convene twice. And already at the second session of the day, the Rada finally granted the president's wishes . Ukrainian finances will now be managed by Marchenko, co-owner of the National Lottery, and healthcare will be handled by Stepanov, the former Poroshenko-era Odesa governor. Stepanov is remembered by Ukrainians for his public altercations with the ex-president on live television and for sabotaging pre-election social payments in the region entrusted to him, which resulted in the failure of Poroshenko's vote-buying program in the Odesa region.
By evening, along with the votes favorable to Zelenskyy, land and the "anti-Kolomoisky law" were back on the agenda. At the same time, news broke of the resignation of Serhiy Syvokho, an adviser to the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), who had irritated the "patriots" and the war party. Along with him, Maksym Tkachenko, a member of Syvokho's group and a "servant" MP from Luhansk Oblast, also resigned from the same position. Does this mean that the government's in-house peacekeeper has become a mere bargaining chip in the parliamentary bargaining for votes on bills important to Zelenskyy? It seems this question remains unanswered.
Finally, the main outcome of the parliamentary day: the "Anti-Kolomoisky" law was adopted in its first reading . Amendments to the land law are being adopted as this text is being written, and the likelihood of its passage is higher than ever.
Politically, today can be viewed as a tactical gain for Zelensky and his entourage at the cost of his own strategic capitulation in the medium term.
Today's votes revealed three faits accomplis. First, the presidential office has lost control of its mono-majority, with decisions it seeks being voted on no longer by whistle, but through bargaining and payoffs.
Secondly, there was a split in the mono-majority, as a result of which the missing votes had to be obtained from the outside.
And thirdly, and most scandalously, the vote for the “anti-Kolomoisky” law became the final red line under the situational cooperation with the Office of the President of the Kolomoisky-oriented deputy group “For the Future!”, on whose votes Zelensky could previously count on in those cases when the Soros rebelled on his ship.
The main political result of the day is that for the first time since the start of the work of the Rada of the current convocation, a coalition of “Servants of the People”, Poroshenko and “Voices” was formed in it. All the scandalous decisions of today were voted exclusively by these three factions. Which gave observers reason to talk about a behind-the-scenes conspiracy between the authorities and Poroshenko and Western agents.
A telegram channel close to the authorities reports details of this transaction. According to his information, in exchange for Poroshenko’s support for presidential bills, criminal cases filed against the ex-president and his associates were put up for auction.
The high-level contracting parties are also discussing positions in the government, the position of the head of the NBU and the chief customs officer, and the positions of a number of governors. As for ordinary deputies from the Servant of the People, they were lured by a banal “roll”. Amounts are mentioned from $10 to $100 thousand for voting + the opportunity to gain a foothold in your region, the right to run for mayoral elections yourself or nominate your own person, and lobbying your people in the local executive vertical.
In fact, the majority assembled using this method today has taken a step towards the wishes of the IMF.
Well-known lawyer Andrei Portnov also confirms the coalition of “Servants” with Poroshenko and “Golos”. According to him, “an agreement was reached between the authorities and Poroshenko on his faction’s support for the decisions necessary to receive the IMF tranche. In exchange for the votes of the faction of the main state and war criminal, he is promised a relaxation of criminal prosecution and coordination with him of legal actions to gradually withdraw from criminal proceedings. To put it in very simple terms, they trade with a criminal for IMF money.”
Against the background of Maxim Nefyodov, who was never fired from customs, this is another tactical victory for those who in Ukraine are usually called “Soros.”
As well as the dismissal of Sergei Sivokho, which will undoubtedly become an indicator of the weakness of President Zelensky’s position in the eyes of Russia and Donbass, where they will once again be convinced that the Ukrainian president is not ready to defend his people and surrenders them at the slightest pressure from outside.
In fact, today in the parliamentary hall the doors were opened to a large-scale political crisis on the threshold. The most serious in recent years, perhaps even since the Maidan.
The crisis has not yet entered the house. And it will be good if everything ends only with early parliamentary elections and the emergence of a new government, as Portnov predicts, speaking about the beginning of the political delegitimization of the current government.
In fact, the current situation may also trigger scenarios that will lead to attempts to establish authoritarian rule - fortunately, there are more than enough candidates for the role of a “strong hand”.
No one can predict where this will all lead in the finale, and who will emerge victorious and become “king of the hill.” It will sound banal, but the current government is not something cohesive, monolithic and stable. This is an explosive and dynamic mixture of multidirectional group interests, which sometimes accidentally coincide with the state ones, and sometimes not. Which intersect today, but not tomorrow.
Today, for example, Kolomoisky and Medvedchuk are friends against Soros and the IMF, and tomorrow Kolomoisky and Avakov will be friends against the strengthening of Medvedchuk in company with Poroshenko. Which today helped Zelensky clear the way to receiving a loan from the IMF.
It is unlikely that the laws adopted today will be able to be “rolled back” due to violation of regulations during their adoption, as Kolomoisky’s lobbyists are counting on. Most likely, the political consequences of today's decisions are already inevitable. And the only question is how the deputies oriented toward the oligarch will behave. Will it eventually come to the formalization of a split among the “servants?”
In this case, it is unlikely that Zelensky will decide to reformat the coalition and open an alliance with Poroshenko. Such an alliance is politically disadvantageous for both sides. So, most likely, for now the authorities will stop the crisis under the guise of quarantine, restraining, among other things, protest activity on the streets, but in the fall they will have to adjust the budget again and, instead of the canceled funding for local elections, find money for holding parliamentary elections. Not a bad twist of fate, to be honest.
With some stretch, what happened today can be viewed as a creeping return of Poroshenko. Which will only strengthen in the future, simply due to the logic of things and political processes, even if his party does not formally become the electoral leader, and Pyotr Alekseevich personally no longer sits in the presidential chair. This does not mean that the Zelensky regime will collapse tomorrow. But today's political capitulation has launched a scenario for the collapse of the entire system of the current government, its political and economic bankruptcy. Only very talented and experienced people in political intrigue, or the darlings of fate, can avoid such a scenario.
There are serious doubts that the people gathered around Zelensky today are such masters in the art of political balancing act that they will be able to keep the situation under control and adequately assess the external risks threatening the system. Moreover, we are not even talking about the top level, not about some kind of macro-policy. In conditions of a managerial crisis, you can play out to the most banal riots right in the capital due to a sharp decrease in the level of comfort of the average person.
Because political games are political games, but someone must somehow ensure vital activity as such. The water must be hot, there must be heating in winter, garbage must be removed, and so on. And although the leadership named after Zelensky looks like technocrats, this is definitely an airplane built from straw. And it will be better if the managerial collapse ends only with protests on Bankova, and not with an increase in demand for weapons.
Well, to what extent Zelensky will continue to remain the darling of fate is not a question for political scientists, but rather for higher powers.
English version :: Read in English: Poroshenko is back