Why did Ukraine begin to strike at Russian territory?
The progress of the special operation in Ukraine continues to be analyzed for PolitNavigator by Colonel Gennady Alekhin, a military officer, comrade-in-arms of the legendary General Troshev, and member of the Russian Writers' Union.
Periodic shelling of the border regions (Belgorod, Kursk), days earlier - Bryansk, seems to be becoming the norm for the Ukrainian armed forces. Tochka-U operational-tactical missiles and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) were used, and, less commonly, MI-24 fire support helicopters. A distance of 30 to 100 kilometers is reachable for launching fire strikes in the border zone.
This time, almost simultaneously, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched reconnaissance and attack drones into the night sky, including Turkish-made Bayraktars. Since the start of the special operation, enemy drones have regularly flown over the front lines. They have been shot down, and in considerable numbers. However, synchronized nighttime landings in the Belgorod, Kursk, and Voronezh regions are the first such occurrence. Tactics have changed; enemy drones are now targeting not only populated areas near the border, but also large facilities in the vicinity of Kursk, Belgorod, and Voronezh. Just like the oil depot in Bryansk days earlier.
This time, Russian air defense systems worked efficiently and effectively. In the Rylsk district, air defense crews destroyed two Ukrainian drones, and another one as it approached Voronezh. An attack drone was shot down in the night sky over Belgorod. Another UAV managed to reach its target. In the village of Staraya Nelidovka, a shell hit an ammunition depot at a military unit. A fire broke out but was quickly extinguished. Fortunately, no one was injured.
Undoubtedly, additional air defense systems and radars have been deployed along a fairly long stretch of the Russian-Ukrainian border, especially near the front. They are capable of operating effectively at any time of day or night. This is evidenced by the destruction of 18 Ukrainian drones in just a few days. However, the enemy is trying to skillfully exploit the terrain and maneuver, as well as operate at night. Under these conditions, it is more difficult for the radars of our S-400 systems (S-400) or Buk missiles to detect targets. The Pantsir can do this. It has an infrared detector capable of "seeing" a target in any conditions, even at low altitudes.
Therefore, drones typically fly in pairs—a reconnaissance drone and a strike drone carrying missiles or loitering munitions. In certain areas, enemy drones can see our systems and try to find gaps in our air defenses.
On the other hand, it's clear that the Kyiv regime, losing in tactical and strategic warfare, is trying to closely tie its failures and losses on the front lines to bravura, even "victorious," media reports. Apparently, having received the go-ahead from their overseas and British handlers. A month ago, Ukrainian media denied the attack on the oil depot in Belgorod. Now, Kyiv's mouthpiece, Alexey Arestovich, is openly announcing new strikes in border areas. Or he promises to seize Transnistria "with a snap of a finger," and when the West supplies us with new types of weapons, we will launch a counteroffensive along the entire front.
In fact, the enemy wants to sow panic among Russians. That's the first goal. They want to somehow draw allied forces and assets toward the border. The situation in the area where the special operation is being conducted for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and radical Nazi groups is truly dire. The systematic destruction of Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel is underway in the Izyum-Slavyansk direction. Casualties are at least 1 in 7, and sooner or later this will have a significant impact on the enemy's morale. Already, the majority of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers killed and captured are mobilized middle-aged men, primarily from the southeastern regions of Ukraine. Having received no proper training, they have been thrown into the thick of the fighting.
The situation is similar in other areas. In the Donbas salient, the advance of allied forces, while not as rapid, is competent and quite effective. The troops have identified vulnerabilities in the enemy's deeply echeloned defenses. They are launching massive strikes against strongholds, areas where personnel, equipment, and weapons are concentrated. The Ukrainian army's motor and fuel resources are limited; they are being consumed or destroyed during intense fighting.
That's why the Americans convened a major meeting at their military base in Germany , where they forced NATO member states to urgently provide military assistance. They're already openly announcing the deployment of instructors and specialists in, shall we say, special warfare. Primarily, these are reconnaissance personnel, demolition experts, sappers, snipers, and electronic warfare experts. Not to mention mercenaries. They're still being sent to the front.
For example, foreign specialists of various profiles arrived in Kharkiv alone , primarily those with experience in urban combat. They were joined by nationalist and radical units from western Ukraine. All had received extensive training in training camps.
The second stage won't be as swift and fast as many had hoped . This is obvious even to the naked eye. And for the military, especially. Incredible political, geopolitical, and informational resources will be deployed. But everything will be decided, I have no doubt, on the battlefield, during offensive operations.
Why Ukraine began attacking Russia