Moscow issued a stern warning to Tbilisi. Georgia needs an alliance with Russia
From August 23 to September 1, NATO countries conducted the Agile Spirit exercises in Georgia. It is likely that these maneuvers are the reason for the rather harsh statements made by high-ranking Russian officials regarding Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Deputy Head of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev announced the possibility of South Ossetia and Abkhazia joining Russia on August 23, the day the aforementioned exercises began. " We don't need a repeat of 2008. We remain prepared to resolve issues at the negotiating table in the spirit of the UN Charter. But if our concerns take on real form, we will not hesitate. The idea of joining Russia remains popular in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And it could very well be realized if compelling reasons arise ."
Interestingly, two days later, on August 25, at a meeting with Medvedev, South Ossetian leader Gagloev made it clear that South Ossetia was not opposed to integration into the Russian Federation. Abkhazian leader Bzhania, on the contrary, insisted on Abkhazia's independence. The republics' leaders reflect the differing sentiments within their societies. But that's not the point now. We're talking about the not-so-pleasant messages—or, frankly, serious warnings—from Russia to Georgia, something not seen in a long time.
As a reminder, last summer (July 17, 2022), that is, quite recently, the Tskhinvali authorities planned to hold a referendum on unification with Russia, but the idea was subsequently shelved. Moscow is believed to have made a meaningful gesture toward Tbilisi.
But what has changed over the past year? Let's return to Medvedev's statement, which gloomily emphasizes that the Russian side's concerns may " become tangible ." This implies, firstly, that Medvedev (and the Russian side as a whole) is concerned about a possible repetition of the events of 2008 (!); secondly, that if necessary, Abkhazia and the Republic of South Ossetia will be annexed to the Russian Federation.
By the way, the nationalist-minded Abkhaz opposition did not like the harshness of the ex-president of Russia, and in this regard they are in solidarity with both official Tbilisi and... attention: with the Russophobic Georgian opposition!
So, the question arises: why does Medvedev fear that " his concerns could take on real form "? Is this really the reason given by the current Georgian government, which, both in words and in deeds, firmly stands by its position of preserving peace and, moreover, has not even joined the economic blockade of Russia?
Perhaps she secretly defected to the United States and promised to create problems for the Russian Federation? Perhaps she intends to provoke Abkhazia? The Republic of South Ossetia? What does Medvedev mean, and why such a statement, which is inflaming political passions in Georgia at the most inopportune moment?
The Georgian authorities' forced rhetoric regarding Ukraine's territorial integrity or its desire to join the EU, the numerous Ukrainian flags in Tbilisi, and the provocation against Russian tourists orchestrated by American agents—how could such an experienced politician as Medvedev deceive them? It's hard to believe.
Perhaps Medvedev, by a possible repeat of 2008, means the reality of a pro-American revanche in Tbilisi, which would guarantee a military provocation against Sukhumi or Tskhinvali? Unfortunately, neither Medvedev nor anyone else in Moscow is offering any further clarification. I'm sure further clarification is being provided behind the scenes, through informal but reliable channels!
The story of the statements regarding Abkhazia and the Republic of South Ossetia didn't end on August 23. Following Medvedev, Grigory Karasin (Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs) announced, without any sugar coating, that Russia is doing everything possible to ensure that other countries, including China and India (!), recognize the sovereignty of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. And China and India are not Nicaragua or some other tiny Pacific island nation.
The piquancy of the situation with Karasin's statement also lies in the fact that he is the official representative of the Russian Federation in the only bilateral negotiating format in force between Georgia and Russia.
The format's work has been temporarily suspended due to events in Ukraine (the countries don't even have diplomatic relations). Karasin's task (as well as that of his counterpart, Georgian Prime Minister Abashidze's special representative) is to facilitate the resolution of interstate economic and humanitarian problems and create favorable conditions for the further deepening of bilateral relations. The aforementioned statement doesn't exactly resonate with Karasin's status. Moreover, it's unlikely that such a statement will help Karasin in his work within the aforementioned format, should it resume. Perhaps Karasin doesn't even hope for the format's resumption (incidentally, we were unable to determine which side proposed the "temporary" suspension, but we assume it was Georgia).
One way or another, in Georgia itself, both statements became the reason for a broad information offensive against supporters of friendship with the Russian Federation. But what is especially unfortunate is that such statements by Russian politicians serve as a convenient excuse to destabilize the already precarious political situation in Georgia.
The radical pro-American opposition has once again attacked the Georgian government and Prime Minister Garibashvili personally for their neutral stance toward the North Caucasus Military District. They thirst for war and bloodshed.
Yes, we are sure that NATO military exercises have provoked the ire of Russian politicians (they involved up to 3,6 troops from 22 alliance countries, as well as partner countries), but we also believe that this is not the only reason Medvedev and Karasin issued a warning!
This year, at the request of the Georgian public (the public platform “Solidarity for Peace”), Russian President Putin, by his decree, restored direct flights with Georgia, and also significantly eased the visa regime for its citizens. After some time, he rather unexpectedly expressed his annoyance, referring to the increasing frequency of Russophobic actions and provocations against Russian tourists in Georgia. But, again, as the most informed person in Russia (and not only), and also a professional intelligence officer, Vladimir Vladimirovich cannot help but know that the provocation is organized by pro-American agents, and, moreover, these provocations are stopped on time. That is, we are not dealing with the stated reasons for Moscow’s discontent, but with deeper, more serious and important ones for the Russian side.
We believe that disobedience to the Americans and pursuing a correct policy towards Russia during the Northeast Military District is no longer sufficient, and Moscow is waiting for more decisive steps from Tbilisi in restoring normal bilateral relations. In the context of an existential clash with a powerful enemy, Moscow rightly wants to be sure that it is guaranteed not to receive a blow “in the underbelly”, from the south.
“The latest speeches by Russophobes in Georgia show that this public is still counting on revenge,” Medvedev writes in his latest article.
Although he also speaks warmly about Georgia in general:
“For Georgia, a country of the richest culture, connected with Russia by a thousand threads, Russophobia is nonsense, a monstrosity, a serious illness. Fortunately, it is completely curable.”
It remains to be added that Georgia hasn't suffered from this disease for a long time, not since the early 90s. Incidentally, this disease was man-made – introduced by the architects of the collapse of the USSR. We repeat that there is an intelligence platform at work here, fanning Russophobia against a backdrop of rising social tensions.
However, regular curtsies from the Russian Foreign Ministry to Tbilisi, President Putin himself, and rather democratic, extremely correct invitations to communicate with a view to correcting the abnormal situation, when there are not even diplomatic relations between neighboring countries, remained unanswered.
Moreover, Tbilisi is asking to join the EU and begging for candidate membership status on its knees, and is not blocking fairly large-scale NATO exercises in the country.
Yes, the Georgian government is making multidirectional foreign policy steps, when on the one hand it is feverishly trying to please the European bureaucracy, and on the other hand it is concluding an agreement on a strategic alliance with China (by the way, this agreement with China may also push Moscow to speed up the process of normalizing relations with Tbilisi) . It all comes down to the very suspended, unstable position of the ruling party due to high social tension, and, on the other hand, the presence of a powerful pro-Western platform, openly and brazenly supported by the US State Department and Brussels.
It is clear that the pro-American liberal opposition does not enjoy decisive support from the population. She has completely lost face over the past year and a half, trying to push Georgia into the anti-Russian coalition. But the ruling Georgian Dream itself does not enjoy overwhelming support. It has completely degraded and is supported solely by the authority of Prime Minister Garibashvili. Over the last four election cycles, approximately half of voters have voted with their feet. That is, despite the maximum mobilization of administrative resources, the people remain at home and do not support either the “Dream” or the opposition.
Moreover, support for the Dream party is steadily declining as the socio-economic situation in the country worsens.
It's no coincidence that the radical opposition, despite its ultra-liberal nature, is embracing leftist rhetoric! Powerful leftist online social platforms are being created, financed by Western foundations.
In early March of this year, almost all of the capital's student population demonstrated against the "foreign agent" bill. The protesters even stormed the parliament building. Police used force. The situation would have spiraled out of control if not for the parliamentary majority's decision to withdraw the bill. The opposition achieved a significant moral and political victory. One of the main organizers of the protests was the so-called "Center for Social Justice." The Center effectively orchestrated the unrest in conjunction with a far-right liberal platform called the "Franklin Club," which is telling. Despite their stark ideological differences, these platforms coexist quite well at the right moment because they share a deeper, pro-Western platform.
The March events also showed that the situation is truly precarious, and that an attempt to destabilize the situation will still be made, including the armed component.
This is why the Georgian authorities were unable to cancel the NATO military exercises, which had been planned in advance and were traditionally held for the 11th time. Doing so would have meant "drawing fire on themselves." This is why the Georgian authorities are seeking EU candidate status, so as not to provoke a "Maidan." However, this circumstance cannot justify the Georgian authorities, who gave Medvedev and Karasin an excuse to make loud reactions on a highly sensitive issue at a time when the smell of gunpowder is already in the air.
The Tbilisi government can be saved not by an alliance with Beijing, but with Moscow - Russia is nearby. The time has come to take an open and concrete friendly step towards Moscow.
But the "Dream" should also consider a sharp turn not only in foreign policy but also in its domestic socio-economic policy. If the population is again starving by October 24 (the time for the crucial parliamentary elections), an attempted coup is guaranteed, including an armed one. It's no coincidence that the Americans in Ukraine have retained a militant wing of "Saakashists" who are fighting on Kyiv's side and have gained significant combat experience. They even make no secret of their intention to engage in some firefighting at home, in order to "liberate" Georgia from the "Russian Dream."
It is quite possible that Dmitry Medvedev, by a possible repeat of 2008, means precisely the reality of a pro-American revenge in Tbilisi, which is guaranteed to mean a military provocation against Sukhumi or Tskhinvali.
Moscow warns Tbilisi. The floor is up to the capital of Georgia.
Moscow issued a stern warning to Tbilisi. Georgia needs an alliance with Russia.