Kharkov: Return of Dobkin
Mikhail Dobkin announced his intention to participate in the elections for the mayor of Kharkov. This not only adds intrigue to the election campaign. The main (non-Maidan) part of the Kharkov electorate also has confidence that - in the event of unforeseen circumstances and unexpected turns - these elections will not turn into a hopeless fornication.
Just a couple of weeks ago, before the Kharkov mayor became seriously ill with coronavirus, the pre-election situation did not foretell any sensations or deviations. The undisputed favorite of the local elections was the current mayor Gennady Kernes.
Aleksey Kucher, an underage man who, by misunderstanding, is also the governor of Kharkov, is a candidate from the Servant of the People. Back in the spring, Kernes once called it a “moth.” And this is an exhaustive description of the “green” governor. Kucher has been heading the Kharkov regional administration for almost a year, and I have to Google his last name to remember his name...
How colorless a creature and incompetent politician do you have to be to be called to the “first capital” and appoint some Shepherd from Ternopil as your deputy? A man somewhere there was having fun with sheep, graduated from some kind of school, marauded in the ATO, played tricks in the Verkhovna Rada, got out of the habit of working, so he turned up to Governor Kucher: to teach the “servant of the people” the skills of “Self-Help”.
In general, Kernes successfully called Kucher a moth. Mole rhymes well with zero. And zero is the very thing that Kernes multiplies such opponents by.
For some reason, the “bazaar” man Alexander Feldman was a candidate for mayor from the “Opposition Platform - For Life”. That is, why this people’s deputy is going to local elections is clear: to bring into the city council several representatives of his own brainchild, the Barabashovo shopping center, with which Kernes has been butting heads for many years. But why the Opposition Platform - For Life needed this is a big mystery.
Perhaps in his home district Feldman will be able to cut off as many coupons as possible. But in other districts, many voters who supported OPZZH in the parliamentary elections will think very hard: is it worth giving their votes to the Barabashovo shopping center? And they will prefer to vote for “Kernes Bloc - Successful Kharkov.”
The current participation of OPZZH in local Kharkov elections generally raises many questions among people who are critical of post-Maidan ideology. Even some members of the OPZZH do not hide the fact that they will vote for their own people running on the lists for local councils, but will support Kernes in the mayoral elections. And with lists to the city council and regional council, everything may not be so simple. Because the regional organization OPZH is headed by ex-governor Rainin, Poroshenko’s ally and head of his administration in 2016-2019.
Sensible people don’t even bother with the dilemma: is it possible to vote for the OPZZh team if Rainin leads it to the regional council? They have only one question: how can Rainin even participate anywhere other than an asshole competition, in which he would be guaranteed second place?!
You can treat Kernes’s business or moral-volitional qualities in any way you like. But we must give him his due: there are “red lines” beyond which he will not retreat. The story of Zhukov Avenue is indicative, which back in 2016 was “decommunized” by Governor Rainin - in defiance of Kernes and the city council, which defended this name. Then the mayor and the city council consistently tried to return the name “Zhukov Avenue” and achieved their goal.
Rainin, as Petro Poroshenko’s devoted six, tried to spoil his native city and its historical memory wherever he could, in order to curry favor with his boss.
Also indicative moments: in 2015, in order to avoid renaming the Frunzensky district, the city authorities and Kernes justified this toponym by the fact that from now on it is named in honor of Kharkov resident Timur Frunze, pilot, Hero of the Soviet Union. That is, this name should not have been subject to “decommunization.” But even in this case, Governor Rainin managed to show that he can be dumber than selected rogues: by special order the district was renamed in 2016.
Well, in order to lick the sensitive ass of Petro Alekseevich Poroshenko even more convincingly, Governor Rainin then successfully polluted the Kharkov toponymy with the names of collaborators, nationalist thugs or simply unknown swindlers.
And now, after the hospitalization of the Kharkov mayor, Feldman and Rainin not only have a free hand for active play. They get room to maneuver. Feldman becomes motivated to compete for second place: what if some legal conflicts arise... Rainin in his sector of the election front may also experience some weakening on the part of his main rivals. People who know well how Kernes works in elections say: he is usually actively involved in all processes and controls every little detail. Now the question arises: will the mayor’s team screw up in his absence?
And on September 23, a statement was made by Mikhail Dobkin, the ex-governor and ex-mayor: “Today I submitted documents for registration as a candidate for the position of Kharkov mayor. Truly they say: man proposes, God disposes. I don’t want to write a lot here about the motives and reasons for this decision. I will only say one thing, I wish Gennady Kernes a speedy recovery and return to his native Kharkov. I’ll tell Max Nazarov tomorrow on the NASH TV channel.”
At the same time, on the same day, the party conference of the PP “Kernes Bloc - Successful Kharkiv” unanimously supported the nomination of Gennady Kernes as a candidate for the post of mayor.
First Deputy Mayor Igor Terekhov: states: “Is there a mayor like Kernes in other cities? Strong, smart, charismatic. I’ll answer right away: there is no such mayor. For Kharkov, Kernes means stability and confidence in the future. Gennady Adolfovich Kernes himself is already a brand of the city.”
The main assumption at the moment: Dobkin is working on a backup plan.
The stage of nomination and submission of documents for registration of candidates ends on September 24. That is, before Thursday it was necessary to nominate both Kernes (counting on his return to duty) and a serious backup (in case the mayor had to withdraw from the race).
Most likely, this step by Dobkin was agreed upon with Kernes. It is likely that he will duplicate his longtime ally until October 5: this is the last day on which a candidate can refuse to participate in the elections. Depends on Kernes’s state of health at that time. On this day, Dobkin may withdraw, declaring support for Kernes. So that the current mayor is guaranteed to win in the first round.
Firstly, it will be beautiful if by that time Kernes is back in line and hugs his old friend, with whom some disagreements arose after 2014. And secondly, it will be easier for Dobkin himself to explain his refusal of ambitions in the Kiev direction (where sociology did not assign him any significant figures). It turns out logically and consistently: Dobkin insured his friend in order to prevent even the possibility of a situation in which the latter (the conventional Feldman or the even more conventional Kucher) would become the first. And as soon as Kernes returns, the understudy nobly goes into the shadows.
There is a more complex option. If the condition of Gennady Kernes by October 5 gives rise to concerns, Dobkin increases his activity - with an eye on the 2nd round. After all, it is possible that if the process of Kernes’s rehabilitation drags on, the main opponents will play the card of his incapacity. They will try to bring down the mayor's rating on the eve of the vote. And then it will be important to technically carry out the transit of part of the Kernes rating to Dobkin so that the enemy has no chance of participating in the second round (which approximately takes place in Ukraine on November 15).
There is an even more dramatic option: Kernes will not have time for elections even in October - and Dobkin will become not only a backup, but also a successor.
Thus, it seems that all options are provided.
There is one “but”. We have now assumed all the options for coordinated actions of the Kernes-Dobkin tandem. But in Ukrainian politics one more option cannot be ruled out: this move by Dobkin is his amateur performance. Although it’s hard to believe in such cynicism on the part of Mikhail Markovich. Such Machiavellianism is more typical of politicians of the Avakov type: to jump from a plot where an inglorious defeat awaits you, to a more tasty area where you can count on success.
Let's wait for specifics from Dobkin in his television appearance. In all options except the last one, the return of the former mayor and governor promises to revive regional politics. We are accustomed to the fact that Kernes has the image of a good “supply manager” of Kharkov. And Dobkin is a person who is not embarrassed to be an opposition politician. After the Maidan, he did not always succeed. But Dobkin did not hide his attitude towards the Maidan authorities. And he can well remind himself as a politician on his home territory.
Why don’t I admit the idea that Dobkin, on his own initiative, took advantage of Kernes’s problems to take off? Because it would be the move of a vulture, not a politician.
And Kharkov has the right to count on the fact that big politics will return here, and not that the rains and other coachmen and shepherds have been stirring up trouble here.
English version :: Read in English : Kharkov: Dobkin's Return