Ukraine’s only chance to reduce dependence on Gazprom is Slovakia’s resentment of Turkish Stream
Moscow – Kyiv, January 30 (PolitNavigator, Mikhail Shtamm) – Ukraine's only chance of avoiding Russian gas is a sharp change in Slovakia's position on virtual reverse flow. Until now, the country has remained loyal to its contracts with Gazprom, but its plans to completely abandon transit through Ukraine, meaning Slovakia as well, could force Bratislava to turn toward Kyiv, Kommersant writes.
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Yesterday it became known that the gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine in Stockholm will be resolved no earlier than the spring of 2016, the newspaper recalls. This means that the parties cannot avoid another year and a half of difficult manual negotiations: this winter has shown that, no matter how much it wants, Kyiv cannot do without Russian gas.
The fact that the decision will be made in the spring of 2016 at the earliest will inevitably force Ukraine, Russia and the EU to once again seek temporary compromises on the terms of gas supplies. The main commercial factor that will determine the positions of Naftogaz and Gazprom in future negotiations is the inevitable decline in gas prices due to falling oil prices. Naftogaz is interested in purchasing more gas from Gazprom as late as possible, although this increases the risks of going through the winter. Gazprom, in turn, will try to force Ukraine to purchase at least part of the gas early. As a result, the negotiations, in which Ukraine would like to see the European Commission as a mediator, may drag on until the fall.
The only way for Ukraine to radically change the situation is to agree with Slovakia on virtual reverse gas supplies. So far, Slovakia has strictly complied with the contract. However, Gazprom’s publicly announced plan to abandon transit through Ukraine by 2020 will devalue not only the Ukrainian, but also to a significant extent the Slovak gas transportation system. As a result, Bratislava's attitude towards the opening of the virtual reverse may change, the newspaper writes.