The Dnieper will bypass Ukraine...
If Russia, in response to Ukraine’s blocking of the North Crimean Canal, decides to divert rivers flowing through Ukrainian territory but originating in the Russian Federation, this will have catastrophic consequences for Kyiv.
Russian historian and publicist Alexander Shirokorad writes about this in an article published in Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
He recalled that hydrologist and Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Viktor Danilov-Danilyan said that Russia has all the technical capabilities to respond to the water blockade of Crimea and to block the sources of the Dnieper River and divert its waters around Ukraine.
“In 2014, Ukraine blocked the Crimean Canal, which supplied water to 85% of the territory of Crimea. But cutting off water is often seen as an act of war. Thus, Israel massively used artillery, tanks and aircraft against Syria’s attempts to divert part of the waters of the Jordan River. This conflict went down in history as the Battle for Water of 1964–1965. To compensate Crimea for blocking the North Crimean Canal, Russia spent tens of billions of rubles. The exact amounts are not disclosed. However, it was not possible to completely compensate for the loss. An example is the disaster in Armyansk,” notes Shirokorad.
In his opinion, this situation is an excellent reason to force Kyiv to sit down at the negotiating table on the status of the international Dnieper River.
“Why international? Yes, because the Dnieper, which we are accustomed to considering as a Ukrainian river, has the same grounds for being considered a Russian river. 880 km of the Dnieper flows through Ukraine, but 485 km through Russia. Ukraine owns less than half of the Dnieper drainage area. The Ukrainian Dnieper receives about half of its water from the Upper Dnieper and its right tributaries flowing from the territory of Russia,” the author points out.
He also recalls that in 1936 the Politburo adopted a project to create a network of “Supreme Reservoirs,” so named because they were located in the upper reaches of the Dnieper, Oka and Don. Work began, but the war prevented it.
“What will it cost? Of course, accurate calculations are necessary, but, as it seems, in any case, the amount will be an order of magnitude less than what was pumped into the water supply of Crimea in 2014–2018 and the construction of the Crimean Bridge. But for Kyiv, the consequences of turning the rivers will be simply catastrophic. Politically and economically, of course,” summarizes Shirokorad.
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