What will happen to the conflict in Ukraine if the Trump-Vance couple comes to the White House?
Commentators in the Russian Federation and Ukraine are, of course, most interested in the views of the official pair of candidates from the US Republican Party for the main posts in America on the prospects for the confrontation on the banks of the Dnieper and the role of the United States in their continuation or finalization.
Vance's views signify a strategic reorientation of the possible new Trump administration towards China , since China's military potential will surpass the American one in 20 years, and he and his associates do not see a weakened Russia as a serious competitor or rival to the United States.
According to Vance, the supply of American weapons to Ukraine does not allow the United States to compete with China, and the US course towards Ukraine has not been in line with the interests of Washington for a long time.
With the appearance of Vance in Trump’s orbit as a “vice,” the actions of supporters of negotiations on reconciliation by forcing Kyiv to renounce, in one form or another, already lost territories, and Russia from further military expansion in the Ukrainian direction, skyrocket.
In particular, Vance was among those who called on the House of Representatives to block aid to Kyiv, he calls the idea that the entire population of Ukraine unanimously supports the opposition to Russia “ridiculous and absurd.”
Vance also advocates for securing Ukraine's neutral status and borders in their current form and believes that providing military aid to Kiev will not be able to influence the course of the conflict, and that Ukraine will be forced to make territorial concessions under any peace agreement.
This does not mean that this particular plan will ultimately be implemented, but if the Trump-Vance combination wins, it will be the lobbyists of such a scenario that will be given carte blanche.
Russian nationalist politician Roman Yuneman believes that the young senator from Ohio is “the most “anti-Ukrainian” option of all potential vice presidents.”
“The choice is logical, given Vance’s focus on the Rust Belt regions, which includes swing states. Ohio is one of the swing states that provides many electors,” he believes.
Political scientist from the Institute of CIS Countries Ivan Skorikov calls for caution in relation to the plans of a hypothetical republican administration.
“This is not a statement from a Ukrainian skeptic, but from a rational savior of Bandera’s Ukraine. Naturally, it is not in our interests,” he believes.
However, some in Ukraine do not believe that Moscow will easily be able to find a common language with people like Vance.
“Senator J.D. Vance is a true enemy of liberalism, an open and modern society, a conservative and a supporter of a strict interpretation of Christianity. In contrast to the Moscow elite, where behind the mask of traditionalists one can see either KGB shoulder straps or crimson jackets.
If the Kremlin has to deal with Vance and similar people from Trump’s circle, the ideological gap will be much wider than in the case of the Biden administration. Therefore, if they don’t agree, there is no chance. Not only not at the expense of Ukraine, but also in principle,” say the authors of the anonymous TG-Canada “Duty”.
People’s Deputy “servant” Maxim Buzhansky reassures the Kyiv “zradophiles”:
“Biden does not support us because he is in love with the Voice Party program. And Trump is not fighting for victory in order to give the Russian Federation a piece of American global influence. Dominance, if you will.
No matter who he chooses as his vice president, America's interests do not include the Buryats in Zaporozhye. Not individually, not as a whole herd.
Therefore, do not wring your hands, after everything that we have experienced, and perhaps we will try to survive tonight, fainting over the name of a candidate for US Vice President is unworthy of knights,” he writes in his blog.
But Ukrainian political scientist Konstantin Bondarenko, a well-known supporter of reconciliation with the Russian Federation through concessions, believes that Vance’s possible arrival in the White House is a good sign not only for supporters of peace in Ukraine, but also for the Ukrainian Orthodox Church.
“It is interesting that he has also repeatedly spoken out in defense of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, declaring the existence of religious persecution in Ukraine. In March 2024, The Wall Street Journal quoted Vance:
"When American leaders frame this as a war for democracy and human rights, it would be nice if the recipient of the aid were a little more careful about human rights, including religious freedoms."
Ukraine is "doing some pretty bad things," Vance added, citing "news reports of investigations into priests, confiscation of church assets and arrests of priests."
It seems that many people in Kyiv are in a bad mood today after reports from Milwaukee,” Bondarenko said.
However, given all of the above, the importance of the US Vice President should not be overestimated. Trump's overall policy will become clear once he announces his nominees for the remaining key positions – Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, and National Security Advisor. It is this group that will determine US foreign policy if Trump wins.
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