Belarus is promised war. You can forget about peaceful protest
August 9 marked the second anniversary of the presidential election in Belarus . Both sides celebrated with large-scale events. Tikhanovskaya gathered her supporters (or at least relative supporters) in Vilnius for the "New Belarus" conference. Lukashenko's supporters gathered at the Kupala Theater in Minsk for the Patriotic Forces Forum, and Batka himself gathered senior officials at the Government House for an expanded meeting of the Council of Ministers.
I don't want to get involved in a debate about the actual election results. I voted against everyone that day , and I have reservations about the vote counting procedure, but I'm also confident that Lukashenko won—both electorally and, as they say, by a long shot . And, looking at what's happening, I'm glad it happened this way. The anniversary of an important event is always a good opportunity to take stock. I think I'll take advantage of this opportunity.
Lukashenko lost the election campaign itself. At the beginning of 2020, everyone was sure he would have another easy ride, like in 2016. The opposition was mired in internecine squabbles and unable to field a unified candidate; the situation in the country was more or less stable, and no competitive contenders were in sight. Lukashenko, as usual, paid little attention to the election campaign itself. He traveled extensively around the country, held meetings, and appeared on television daily. This media presence was always more than sufficient, but in 2020, several factors intervened.
Firstly, the internet has completely conquered television. And the bulk of the politicized audience is concentrated there. And on the internet, the government's position has traditionally been weak.
Secondly, he made mistakes – he launched a destructive economic gamble with alternative oil, intensified the anti-Russian tone of his rhetoric, made strange, frightening statements about COVID, and delayed the publication of his program until the last minute.
Thirdly, in addition to the tried-and-true deck of old opposition figures, new people entered the elections , each playing a tough, politically-driven game in their own way. The Belarusian authorities have always had problems with political strategy, but relying on administrative resources and organizations like the BRSM and Belaya Rus didn't work against them. As a result, the two main competitors ended up behind bars.
A combination of mistakes and powerful political strategies working against Lukashenko led to mass protest voting. Political strategists hammered one message into the voters' heads: they'd vote for the devil himself, just not for him. The wife of one of the detained candidates played the role of "the devil himself." As a candidate, she was as pure as a newborn's conscience. No political experience. No managerial experience. A simple housewife. A complete zero , a blank slate. And the political strategists managed to force this blank slate on voters, painting each one with exactly what they wanted to see.
The result is known. Voting, protests, mass unrest, attempted mass strikes. Once again, political strategists and Western puppeteers were at work. Promoted Telegram channels called for protests, instructed on how to properly participate in the unrest, and coordinated roadblocks. Political strategists projected appealing images – peaceful protests, marches of students, women, and pensioners, ribbons, umbrellas, touching hugs and kisses against the backdrop of lines of security forces with shields, a white-red-white bride in a wedding dress who turned out to be no bride at all. The protest was expertly hyped. So peaceful, so sweet. Despite the clashes and barricades that had already taken place.
At the time, many sympathized with this protest. A significant portion of the population was truly tired of Lukashenko , and then they were handed a woman, albeit a clueless one, who promised not to stay in office for long, to quickly hold elections, and then return to her husband and cutlets. They demonstrated how many people wanted her to do this. The number of people wanting her to do so increased. This was the peak. If Lukashenko had turned out to be Yanukovych back then, Belarus would now be Ukraine. But Lukashenko turned out to be Lukashenko, and he turned the tide. Brutally, with bloodshed. But he turned the tide. And subsequent events showed that he was right.
The fascination with the empty opposition didn't last long. Now the opposition was making mistakes and losing popularity. Belarus has certain problems with sociology. Independent political polls are simply banned, and those that are permitted tend to convey to the population the government's vision of what society should think. Therefore, in the absence of a stamp...
Following the events of 2020, the British polling agency Chatham House became interested in Belarusian opinions. They lack the capacity to conduct surveys in Belarus according to all the rules, and the far-from-impartial Grigory Astapenya is in charge of the Belarusian issue there, but there are simply no other polls. Even this agency has shown a halving of the number of protest supporters over the past eighteen months. While in September 2020, according to their data, such people numbered 56-57 percent, by January 2022, the figure had fallen to 28-30 percent.
Let me remind you that this is January. And it's not about the power of Lukashenko's propaganda. It's actually quite crude, and the opposition still controls the internet. It's just that during this time, people have seen the deception of promised compensation for layoffs and prison terms, the endless chatter, the internecine squabbles within the opposition, and its inability to take any effective action. After January, there were calls for sabotage and intelligence gathering for Ukraine, and the glorification of militants from the Kalinovsky and Pahonia "regiments." The protests became increasingly less peaceful and far from cute. Instead of girls in white, its symbol became bearded thugs in camouflage. Naturally, the appeal of this symbol is far from the same.
The final step was yesterday's conference in Vilnius. There, the "peaceful" protest was publicly abandoned. Much was made of the use of force, and it was already being accepted as mainstream. Deputy commander of the "Pahonia" regiment, Prokopyev, even promised the Ukrainian Armed Forces would seize Minsk within three days, without provoking protests. Following the conference, a special person was even appointed in Tikhanovskaya's "office" to oversee the "deoccupation" – a person familiar to many from the annoying, unsolicited YouTube ads of the Center for Social and Political Studies (CIPSO). He hasn't yet called for an invitation from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but the very presence of such a person in the ranks is deeply alarming. Lebedko's words at the conference, about how relying on force dramatically diminishes the opposition's audience, proved to be a voice crying in the wilderness.
How much it reduces! It's time to forget about peaceful protest. Now our opposition has directly stated that in order to come to power it is ready to declare war on its own people. The real one. After this, the political prospects of such opposition can be put to rest. And it’s time for Lukashenko to celebrate another victory over her.
Belarus is being promised war. Peaceful protests are out of the question.