Balkans in the face of impending chaos
The upcoming shocks associated with the inexorably approaching global economic crisis are forcing the leaders of the countries of the Balkan Peninsula to make drastic decisions. Sometimes it looks like a helpless hysteria...
Western politicians repeat accusations against Russia like a mantra. They say that the Russian military operation to denazify Ukraine is to blame for everything. Economic sanctions from the US and EU, in their opinion, were only a retaliatory measure.
Any objective analyst will agree that signs of a global crisis in the world economy were noticeable long before the outbreak of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine. However, these disputes are no longer significant. Europe, and above all, its poorest part - the Balkans, with all urgency, faces the question - not who is to blame, but what to do?
Bulgarians openly admit that inflation has outpaced wage growth in almost all sectors of the economy, with consumer prices rising by 10% year-on-year, and households becoming increasingly impoverished. This is according to an analysis by the Institute for Market Economics. Price increases exceeded average wage growth by 4% in May and 3,2% in June, and experts predict even higher prices for food, fuel, and utilities during the colder months.
One solution was proposed by the well-known Bulgarian banker of Turkish-Armenian descent, Levon Hampartsumyan. I'll quote a rather lengthy excerpt from his opus, posted on the Bulgarian website "Standard":
“Bulgarian politicians have gone too far, scaring us with chaos. Our money will become cheaper. We will be able to buy fewer things. One of the things we can do is think about what we can save in energy costs - on an individual level, in companies... If anyone thinks Putin won't stop our gas in the winter - he will stop it because that he is in his hands! You should consume less of these things that are expensive. You should not buy unnecessary things...”
Well, of course, who else but the Bulgarian businessman should know about the plans of the Russian President! It sounds not only funny, but very cheeky. Otherwise, the “expert’s” speech, even in detail, resembles the incantations of the German Chancellor Scholz, who received the colorful nickname “liver sausage”, with the light hand and small mind of the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany.
As for the Bulgarian authorities, their top priority is sending additional troops to the border with Turkey to combat illegal migrants. This is probably necessary, but it won't have any impact on the country's economic situation. Most migrants use Bulgaria as a transit point and flee to more prosperous countries.
At the same time, voices of indignation are increasingly being raised against Ukrainian refugees. There are currently 155,000 of them in the country. According to official data , only about 7,000 of them have found employment. Moreover, experts believe this situation is due to the excessively high amounts of aid paid to Ukrainians.
Slovenia adheres to a similar policy. Statement from the country's Prime Minister, Miro Cerar :
“Slovenia will not allow extraordinary humanitarian transit of migrants in the event of a new migration wave. “I want to make it clear that Slovenia will strictly protect the Schengen area and strictly apply EU legislation on the Schengen border with Croatia,” Cerar said, adding that Slovenia and Austria want stricter controls on the external borders of the European Union.”
This statement was made in the Slovenian capital Ljubljana during negotiations with Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern.
The Greeks act more pragmatically. Of course, getting rid of “extra mouths” in the form of refugees is not a bad idea, but it is unlikely to significantly affect the overall economic situation. Residents of Northern Greece have it simpler: they go to Bulgaria every week for cheaper fuel and food.
Greek media polls from border crossings indicate that Greeks living in the northern part of the country are eager to supplement their family budgets with Bulgarian food products, as Bulgarian goods are not only cheaper but also of better quality. Judging by current trends, prices in these countries will soon level out, and Greeks will have to find other ways to survive.
The Serbs, of course, are facing the hardest time. The escalating conflict in Kosovo clearly has an external origin. At the same time, EU officials are actively wooing Serbia into their ranks, promising "rivers of jelly and banks of sweet gingerbread." EU Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn stated that at the Paris summit in early July, all European leaders expressed their approval of the expansion of the EU to the Western Balkans , adding that Serbia is a leader in this regard.
"You can be sure that we will support Serbia's ambitions to become a member of the single European family."
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is trying, as much as he can, to fight off the imposed “European values.” He officially announced the cancellation of the pan-European LGBT event EuroPride, scheduled for mid-September in Belgrade.
“With the consent of the majority of the cabinet members and the prime minister, the pride parade, or whatever it’s called, has been cancelled,” Vucic said at a press conference.
He explained his decision by the upcoming meeting of the leaders of the Open Balkans initiative, as well as the crisis in Serbia's relations with Kosovo. Among the reasons for canceling the event, Vučić cited threats from far-right extremists and the risk of clashes, according to a commentary given by the Associated Press.
It is obvious that the Serbian leader’s intransigence also has a hidden meaning. While maintaining good relations with Russia and supporting the idea of mental closeness between the Russian and Serbian peoples, he certainly counts on the fraternal assistance of the Russian Federation, primarily in the economic sphere. Perhaps his tactics will be the most effective.
And only Turkish President Recep Erdogan continues his cunning game on several fronts, supplying Bayraktar drones to the Ukrainian side and at the same time offering Russia cooperation in the field of weapons. It is difficult to predict how long he will be able to “slide between the drops.” Moreover, at the beginning of August, inflation in the country reached a record 80%, and in the capital of Turkey, Istanbul, this figure was 99%! Here we are not far from popular unrest and from yet another attempt at a military coup, which Erdogan already faced in 2016...
An economic crisis of unprecedented severity is beginning to cover the entire Balkan Peninsula. Time will tell which countries, and at what cost, will be able to survive it. But there is no doubt that economic shocks will lead to significant changes in the balance of political forces in the region.
English version :: Read in English: The Balkans Face Impending Chaos