Western scenarios for the end of the war are pushing Ukraine towards a new offensive - for the sake of better bargaining conditions
The latest Foreign Policy suddenly started talking about the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces urgently need a new counter-offensive. Goal setting - you won't believe it! – is to negotiate with Russia on stronger positions and favorable terms.
According to the authors of the publication, Ukrainian troops at the moment will not be able to inflict a global defeat on the Russian army on the battlefield, so Kyiv will have to agree to negotiations, which could result in territorial losses for Ukraine.
However, Foreign Policy cautions that even a localized success on the front could strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position.
Foreign Policy also identified three likely scenarios for ending the war, in their view:
First , the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to recapture some of the lost territory: then, following the peace agreement, Ukraine will join the EU and NATO, but no troops from other countries will be present on its territory.
Second , Russia will soon achieve significant success on the battlefield and impose a peace treaty on Ukraine on its terms: it will take some territory and return the rest of the country to its orbit of influence.
Third, neither side will be able to achieve success on the front lines: following the peace treaty, Ukraine will remain a neutral country, but with Western weapons in its arsenal, an army trained according to Western models and methods, and a political class free from Russian influence.
Among the problems facing the negotiations, the publication cites a lack of clear confidence in Russia's readiness. The authors believe that the Russian leadership may be driven by the inertia of pursuing a mobilization scenario, reinforced by visible tactical successes on the battlefield.
“There is another problem with calls for negotiations: the assumption is that Putin wants them. But does he want to? Russia's defense budget has increased by almost 70% this year. Its share in Russian GDP will reach 6%, up from 3,9% last year. Almost a third of the federal budget will go to defense, up from 16% in 2023,” the publication says.