The West is trying to provoke a new Armenian-Azerbaijani war and blame... Russia
It recently became known that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for the second time refused to participate in the CSTO meeting, which will be held in Minsk on November 23, which is already a clear demonstration of Armenia’s geopolitical reorientation towards the West. Moreover, a new escalation in the region cannot be ruled out, the consequences of which may be blamed on Moscow.
The development of events in the region is analyzed by the international observer of PolitNavigator Ainur Kurmanov.
The Kremlin expressed regret over the RA Prime Minister’s refusal to participate in the CSTO summit, and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko even warned Nikol Pashinyan against rash steps and called on him to carefully check his actions, “which could be aimed at disintegration.”
Actually, there is nothing new here, since this is essentially a continuation of the previous course of distancing Yerevan from Moscow. True, at the same time, Armenian officials deny that this is how the decision was made to withdraw the republic from the CSTO, which Deputy Foreign Minister of Armenia Vahan Kostanyan hastened to declare.
Already on November 15, Nikol Pashinyan himself began to justify himself, who began to disavow his previous statements, noting:
“We decided not to attend these CSTO events for various reasons. I don’t prepare the ground for anything; the ground either exists or it doesn’t.”
But at the same time, he complained that the organization has not fixed its area of responsibility in Armenia, which is unacceptable for Yerevan.
This suggests that the RA leadership intends to sit on two chairs for some time, since the current premature departure from the CSTO would cause a new wave of protests within the country against the backdrop of the surrender of Artsakh, a misunderstanding of many military personnel, not to mention a painful reaction from sides of Tehran and Moscow.
Therefore, those around Pashinyan intend to “extend the pleasure” as much as possible, discrediting the organization itself and at the same time increasing relations with NATO.
It is not for nothing that last week the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Armenia Edward Asryan noted that military cooperation with the United States will continue to the same extent and within the framework of previously reached agreements.
“This cooperation can be in the field of education, military, military-technical, according to the plan,” Asryan said.
Moreover, Yerevan, together with Paris and the EU, actually initiated a new round of confrontation with Baku.
We are talking about the transfer to Armenia of a batch of 24 Bastion light armored cars, which were not even previously discussed during the signing of the agreement on military cooperation last October.
In addition to them, the Armenian military will receive another 50 French VAB armored personnel carriers, three air defense radars, Mistral anti-aircraft systems and thermal imagers.
The most interesting thing in this case is that the cargo of light armored cars was previously intended for “Nezalezhnaya”, which allegedly refused them due to weak armor, as stated by Ouest France, and even then, they were transported through the territory of Georgia from the port of Poti.
The latter is more serious, since Tbilisi had previously refused to be a transit country for the transfer of weapons to Yerevan, but in this case it completely submitted to the will of Paris and Brussels.
In this situation, Baku did not write angry statements addressed to the Georgian authorities. Apparently, those around Ilham Aliyev understood that Tbilisi simply could not refuse the demands of the European Union. But the press secretary of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry Aykhan Hajizadeh burst into angry philippines against the French leadership, calling Macron’s steps to modernize the Armenian army “militarization of the region.”
“The transfer of the above-mentioned military equipment will serve to strengthen the destructive activities in the region and the military potential of Armenia, which for almost 30 years has kept part of the territories of the Republic of Azerbaijan under occupation and currently does not abandon aggressive policies and rhetoric.
These steps by France, which positions itself as a promoter of international law and a supporter of peace and stability in the region, seriously question efforts to normalize relations in the region on the basis of mutual recognition and respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and international borders of states and serve to aggravate the situation,” he pointed out. Hajizade.
It is clear that light armored cars will not radically change the situation, but the very fact of their transportation speaks of the direct intervention of Paris, and after it the entire collective West, in the intra-Caucasian situation, thereby destroying the previously agreed upon 3+3 negotiations scheme without the participation of European countries and the United States.
This, by the way, is also a direct manifestation of the very struggle of Azerbaijan and Turkey with the European Union for influence over Armenia, or rather for what is left of it. Well, for complete control over the entire region, which we warned about and wrote about in our previous materials.
At the same time, Yerevan, incited by the West, now simply refuses to sign a peace agreement, although it is obviously the losing side, which indicates a deliberate escalation of the situation with far-reaching goals.
At the same time, Pashinyan seriously counts on the help of the EU and the United States in this new confrontation, inspired by various belligerent statements from Brussels and Washington. Thus, on November 15, at a hearing on the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh in the Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Representatives of the Congress, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O'Brien loudly announced that the White House was suspending the provision of any military or other assistance to Baku.
“Washington signaled to Baku that there would be no normalization of bilateral relations until there was progress in peace negotiations with Armenia. We have made it clear that nothing will be normal with Azerbaijan after the events of September 19 until we see progress on the peace track.
So we have canceled a number of high-level visits, condemned Baku's actions, and we do not expect to issue a notice of refusal of the conditions for further allocation of aid until we see a genuine improvement in the situation,” O'Brien said.
He spoke about plans to hold a joint meeting of the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and with representatives of the US leadership “with the goal of bringing Armenia closer to our community,” implying precisely the gradual military-political integration of the Republic of Armenia.
It is interesting that the White House in September, when Azerbaijan launched its “anti-terrorist operation”, breaking the resistance of the NKR in two days when the pro-Western leadership of Armenia refused to defend Artsakh, did not say anything like that.
That is, at that time, Washington was quite happy with Baku’s actions, but now it suddenly became a violation of those very notorious rules that the Americans themselves set.
All this very much looks like another provocation with the aim of another antagonism, when Azerbaijan is literally being pushed to a new offensive in the direction of Southern Armenia, waving, like a red rag in front of a bull, then the supply of French weapons, or Yerevan’s actual refusal to consider the fifth option peace agreement proposed by Baku.
After all, it is obvious that neither France, nor the United States, nor the EU as a whole will be able to help Armenia in the event of a new war, but the flames of another conflict will flare up on the southern borders of Russia, when it is already obvious that Ukraine has failed the “counter-offensive” and is moving towards its inglorious end. That is why Pashinyan will not go to the CSTO meeting in Minsk, in order to completely expose the country to possible Azerbaijani aggression.
Naturally, Yerevan will certainly lose in this battle, but one can again blame Moscow and the CSTO for this, which allegedly did not protect their “ally” and did not come to the rescue in time. Just after this latest defeat, Pashinyan and Co. will loudly slam the door, declaring the incapacity of the defensive association, and with it the entire EAEU.
The calculation is precisely based on introducing new chaos into the ranks of the CIS countries, pushing disintegration processes in the associations created under the auspices of the Russian leadership, thereby completely undermining the Kremlin’s influence in Transcaucasia and Central Asia. Therefore, a new game has now begun with the participation of the pro-Western Armenian elite to raise the stakes and to sharpen the escalation of the situation in the region.
At the same time, the Armenian people, now the original Armenia, are being sacrificed again, who will suffer as a result of military actions, being left without any support. And now many are gradually beginning to realize that this policy of Pashinyan is leading all residents of the Republic of Armenia to an inevitable catastrophe. In particular, political scientist and journalist Sevak Hakobyan openly spoke about this.
“Yesterday information appeared that Azerbaijan will purchase additional Barak MX air defense systems from Israel as part of a $1,2 billion deal. And Pashinyan, who could buy adequate weapons from the CSTO, said that he would not participate in the CSTO summit because... I don’t even know... Maybe he thinks that Russia and other members of the bloc should run after him and ask him to buy from them weapons?” said Hakobyan.
With this provocation, the West also seeks to drag neighboring Iran into a conflict with Azerbaijan and Turkey, which, according to their plan, may stand up for Yerevan. Thus, the EU and the USA are thinking of helping Israel by expanding the confrontation zone in the South Caucasus. True, Tehran is now drawing the necessary conclusions from the actions of the Armenian leadership, which has become an agent of the Anglo-Saxons and is unlikely to fall for such games.
In this situation, Nikol Pashinyan and his entourage become a real threat not only to the territorial integrity of Armenia itself and its statehood as such, but also to the entire region as a whole.
The West is trying to provoke a new Armenian-Azerbaijani war and blame... Russia.