A favorable outcome for Russia from the parliamentary crisis in Moldova is unlikely
The Socialist Party of the current President of Moldova, Igor Dodon, who positions himself as a pro-Russian politician, will not be able to create a coalition in the country’s parliament with the pro-European ACUM bloc.
Political scientist Alexey Martynov told PolitNavigator about this.
"Nothing can be ruled out, but the chances are slim, since, as I see it, ACUM won't allow Brussels to do such things. They'll simply forbid it. They've already made this clear. The Socialists are more likely to form a coalition with Plahotniuc's party (Vlad Plahotniuc, the oligarch considered the "master of Moldova" – ed. ). There are no obstacles there, although it doesn't look very good politically – Moscow will be unhappy," Martynov said.
He believes that even if Dodon announces early parliamentary elections, the main beneficiaries will again be Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party.
“It seems to me that an inter-factional coalition is impossible. More likely, Plahotniuc will buy the 10-11 deputies he needs from the socialist faction and ACUM. Or he will consider that it is more profitable for him to gain a simple majority in early elections. For the next parliamentary elections, single-mandate constituencies will be enlarged, and the number of deputies will correspondingly decrease. Therefore, Plahotniuc’s party, together with single-mandate voters and controlled spoilers, will easily receive a majority,” Martynov said.
According to the results of the parliamentary elections that took place in Moldova in February, the socialists won 35 seats, the democrats - 30, ACUM - 26. The Sor party, controlled by Plahotniuc, won another 7 seats. Deputies have not yet started working because they cannot create a coalition.
A favorable outcome for Russia in the parliamentary crisis in Moldova is unlikely.