Elections in Moldova. Is a Nazi coup possible, like in Ukraine?
In Moldova, as in Ukraine, Russian television programs were banned. The ruling party initially received only 15% of the seats in parliament, but then bought 45% of the deputies from other political forces.
However, in the 2018 parliamentary elections, a victory for the socialists is possible. Are their pro-Western opponents ready to follow the path of the Nazi coup, as was the case in Ukraine? It is believed that the main deterrent remains the presence of Gagauzia and Transnistria, ready to resist Chisinau.
Chisinau political scientist Vladimir Bukarsky spoke to PolitNavigator observer Valentin Filippov about the intricacies of Moldovan domestic politics.
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Valentin Filippov : We have waited so many years for Moldova and Russia to finally join a common entity – for example, in the Customs Union.
We know that in Moldova, it seems, the population is not against it. However, in Ukraine the majority of the population was in favor of such a thing.
Is there now a feeling that Moldova is in some kind of blockade, in an unfriendly environment - next to Romania, Ukraine after the coup, there is no common border with Russia.
Vladimir Bukarsky : Valentin, I would put it this way. Moldova is surrounded not only externally but also internally. Because, as I've said repeatedly, the majority of our people consistently support unity with Russia. According to all polls, 50-60% support the Customs Union, unity with Russia, and even a return to the Soviet Union.
One of the centers there, IRI, an international American institute, conducted a survey. They asked people the following question: “Would you like to return to the Soviet Union?” 56% were in favor of returning to the Soviet Union.
But here, as in Ukraine, there is such a factor, which manifested itself in 14, this is the factor of the elite. Our elite is overwhelmingly Russophobic and pro-Romanian. Somewhere from the 20% that are in favor of joining Romania, the problem is that this is the most active part of society. That is, these are professors, these are academicians, these are directors of lyceums, rectors of universities, students. And it is these people who are, perhaps, the engine, the trend in Moldovan society.
There is a media factor. The vast majority of Moldovan-speaking journalists, also, unfortunately... they cannot even be called Moldovan-speaking, they are Romanian-speaking. They consider themselves Romanians and their language Romanian. And this factor of the elite, unfortunately, cannot be ignored.
But, I repeat once again that if we keep in mind that entire regions of Moldova, not counting Transnistria, this is Gagauzia, and the north of Moldova, and the city of Balti, the second, northern capital of Moldova, this is the Taraclia region, Bulgarian-speaking, There, somewhere around 99% are pro-Russia, pro-Eurasian Union, pro-Orthodox values. And we must, nevertheless, keep in mind that the vast majority of Moldovan labor migrants work in Russia.
Valentin Filippov : Not in Romania?
Vladimir Bukarsky : In Romania? Who would go to Romania? About 500,000 Moldovan migrants are permanently residing in Russia; they are Moldovan citizens with Moldovan passports. That is, they permanently reside and work in Russia, and during seasonal work, this number rises to 700,000-800,000.
Valentin Filippov : I should simply confirm that we have a huge number of Moldovan citizens in St. Petersburg, and I'm not talking about dirty, menial jobs. Many people with higher education, even those with vocational training, actually work in St. Petersburg. Whether they're Moldovan citizens or just migrant workers with work permits is probably not their fault; they'd happily seek some other status. But in Russia, that's difficult, so many simply remain workers with work permits.
Vladimir Bukarsky : As for Romania, specifically Trans-Prut Moldova, the Romanian territory beyond the Prut River, Iași, and so on, is by all measures the most depressed region in the entire European Union. That is, of the entire EU, it is the most neglected, the most impoverished region.
Valentin Filippov : That is, it still holds the palm, and Ukraine hasn't managed it... Although, in general, I've heard that Moldova is no longer the poorest post-Soviet state...
Vladimir Bukarsky : Ukraine has already caught up with us and overtaken us.
Valentin Filippov : I was amused by the statement of some "Jewish Banderite" who said: "Well, Odessa is doing well now, now rich Moldovan tourists are coming to us."
Vladimir Bukarsky : Yes, yes, yes. Although there have been many cases… We have a lot of Russian-speakers coming to Odessa, who are unaccustomed to it… and here the overwhelming majority of Russian-speakers, practically all national minorities, support unity with Russia, about 25% of the population.
Many of them are driving with St. George ribbons, and there were several cases when cars with Moldovan license plates there you have comrades from the National Guard and the Right Sector, they stopped cars with Moldovan license plates, threw everyone who was there out of the cars, accused them of "Putin's agents" ...
Valentin Filippov : Okay, Vova, explain this to me. You're talking about the big picture, the electoral landscape, and it's pro-Russian.
But at the same time, we have the parliament of Moldova, in which for some reason these pro-Western liberals always have a majority. At the same time, the popularly elected president is completely ignored by parliament.
Parliament has formed a government for itself and is simply pushing the president aside.
How does it happen that there are more of our voters, but there are fewer of ours in parliament?
Vladimir Bukarsky : It's the same situation that once existed with the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. That is, people get into parliament on the lists of one party, but, so to speak, as the parliamentary cycle progresses, they collectively find themselves in a completely different party, with a completely opposed ideology.
And, as a result, it turned out that the Democratic Party, which received 14% in the elections in 15, is now approaching a constitutional majority, that is, it now controls about 60% of the deputy corps.
And from the list of the Communist Party, people voted for them as a left party (the Communists recently advocated for the Customs Union, for Eurasian integration), 14 people out of 21 people in the faction, 14 people went over to the Democratic Party. And in the end, these 14 people voted for a ban on the broadcasting of Russian information and analytical programs, and for an anti-Russian resolution, and now they are ready to vote for the inclusion of a clause on mandatory European integration in the Constitution of Moldova. That is, all political forces will be obliged to include in their charter that they support the euro...
Valentin Filippov : What Ukraine went through back then with Yushchenko's "universal decree," where he said, "Yes, please, whoever you want can be in power, but everyone has to promise that we're joining NATO and Europe. Let's pass a law that says this is the only way."
Vladimir Bukarsky : But, still, they're not taking into account factors like Transnistria and Gagauzia, because Gagauzia has already stated that it won't remove Russian broadcasts. They continue to broadcast Russian programs there.
Valentin Filippov : It was the same in Ukraine, where every single ban was in place for a very long time. But when 20 strong men show up at a TV station and just beat up the staff, and no law enforcement intervenes, then the ban actually starts to take effect.
You understand, in Ukraine all these prohibitions were also ridiculous, until they began to physically destroy people for failure to comply with these prohibitions.
Vladimir Bukarsky : If they come to Gagauzia and try….
Valentin Filippov : Listen... "If they come to Odessa, they'll get a real beating." Odessa was surrounded with checkpoints, held out for a couple of months, the most violent ones were gradually rounded up by the SBU, and then the rest were burned. And that's it, they did it all publicly, live on air. And now, few people in Odessa would say, "No, what are you doing, turn on Russian channels."
Isn't the Moldovan liberal democratic elite capable of such a combination as in Ukraine? That is, go to fascism, to Nazism, to extermination, to ethnic cleansing?
Vladimir Bukarsky : In principle, anything is possible in the long run. If someone had told us in 12 or 13 what was about to happen in Ukraine, we would have considered them crazy.
But the Moldovan people are more peaceful than the same Ukrainians. The Moldovan people are hard workers. He is more traditional than the Ukrainians with their wild history of haidamaks, station wagons, ruins and other things. The Moldavian people, they love their land, their hearth, first of all.
Valentin Filippov : There are parliamentary elections this year. Do you see any prospects? Is there a chance to fundamentally change this parliament and create a majority that will pursue more balanced policies?
Vladimir Bukarsky : I don't want to engage in political advertising, but objectively, there is only one force – the Socialist Party, which over the past few years has consistently advocated for the restoration of a strategic partnership with Russia and against joining Romania and NATO. They have consistently supported the position of President Igor Nikolayevich Dodon, who has a program, a strategic goal, a strategic vision, but lacks the support in parliament and the government to implement it.
Valentin Filippov : I'd like to return to the ban on Russian programming. So, where do you live, cable operators still broadcast channels, and everything works?
Vladimir Bukarsky : Apart from Gagauzia, it's being implemented, but I can point out that there are two television channels in Moldova: NTV-Moldova and TVC. These channels produce programs that allow for alternative viewpoints, featuring people who say the same things as Kiselev, Solovyov, and others. In other words, they present objective information to the public.
Valentin Filippov : But Russian channels are cut off?
Vladimir Bukarsky : No, it's not the channels that are cut off, but the TV programs. Except for Gagauzia.
Valentin Filippov : Well, that's how it is – little by little. Okay, fine, thank you. Good luck with that.
Vladimir Bukarsky : Greetings to PolitNavigator.
Valentin Filippov : Thank you.
English version :: Read in English: Elections in Moldova. Is a Nazi coup like in Ukraine possible?