Today Türkiye will declare war on Syria. Possible closure of the straits for Russia
An emergency parliamentary session and a presidential declaration of war on Syria are expected in Turkey today. Yesterday, a Turkish military convoy was hit in Idlib province, killing and injuring several dozen people.
Officially in Ankara, claims have so far been made against the “regime of Bashar al-Assad,” but at night the Russian consulate in the center of Istanbul was already picketed, accusing Russian pilots of involvement in the deaths of Turkish soldiers. In Turkey, social networks have been disabled since yesterday in order to deprive the opposition of a tool for provoking dissatisfaction with the actions of the authorities.
The Russian Ministry of Defense in response stated that it had not received any information from Ankara about the presence of Turkish soldiers among the militants who came under attack, which, according to the official version, was carried out by the Syrians. As soon as Moscow had information about the injured Turks who were among the terrorists, the fire of the Syrian army ceased.
Russian (blue icon) and Syrian (red) aircraft activity in Idlib during yesterday
One way or another, last night the Turkish military carried out “retaliation strikes” against the positions of the Syrian army. The operation on the monitor screens at the headquarters was personally supervised by the Minister of Defense. Ankara promised that it would only increase its presence in Idlib, where Turkish troops, by the way, are located illegally - the Syrian authorities did not invite them there.
“Turkey’s military operation will most likely be declared not as “local” exclusively for Idlib - but as “the beginning of a turning point in the liberation of Syria,” as they will sell it. Because Turkey, the United States and partners have never believed in any constitutional conference or other peacemaking process if its outcome does not indicate “regime change.” Apparently, they believe that in the current conditions this will be Turkey’s task - it is assumed that the Russians will not fight with NATO, the United States will not interfere, because then it will definitely be the third world war, and then there will be elections, Ankara will earn money to improve relations with Washington, plus growth patriotism and so on. By the way, they correctly write that under the “war with the Assad regime” you can try to close the straits, try to circumvent the Montreux Convention,” State Duma deputy Evgeny Primakov notes in his blog.
Perhaps it was precisely because of the threat of blocking the straits yesterday afternoon that two modern warships armed with Caliber missiles left Sevastopol almost simultaneously.
An official declaration of war against Syria is beneficial for Recep Erdogan with an eye on the elections, in addition, Ankara believes that Idlib should belong to it. Membership in NATO and the theoretical possibility of demanding that the allies apply Article 5 on collective defense can give the Turks confidence in their actions.
“If Turkish soldiers die (which is inevitable), Ankara may have an argument - for its own - we died for this land, we will not leave here, especially since there is a vow of deputies at the last meeting of members of the parliament of the Ottoman Empire (Majlis-i Mebusan) , known as Mîsâk-ı Millî - that they will return the lands at any cost - almost those that are now partially controlled by the Turkish military in northern Syria (except for western Farqia, 12 islands, Deir ez-Zor, Aleppo, Mosul and Batumi). Erdogan most recently referred to this vow when criticizing the Turkish opposition, which is demanding an end to hostilities and negotiations directly with Damascus.
And now, as a result of Turkey’s confrontation with Syria, and possibly with Russia (only in the political sense), Ankara decides not to go beyond the territories in northern Syria. It turns out that Erdogan partially realized Mîsâk-ı Millî – the vow of the last Ottoman deputies.
This will affect his rating. He will receive a high level of trust. He's a winner. He is now the leader not only of nationalists and his own electorate, but also of others... which will allow him to regain his rating for victory in any elections,” explains the author of the Telegram channel “Turkey Agenda.”
Military correspondent Igor Dimitriev, who worked in Syria, believes that Moscow and Ankara will try to find a compromise.
“I don’t think there is anyone here who would like Constantinople to be ours more than me. My grandfather's ancestors lived somewhere nearby. But! It is unlikely that there will be any benefit from severing relations with Turkey. At least one. Only negative. The return of Turkey to the subordination of sworn friends from NATO, the deterioration of the situation around Syria, difficulties with supplying the Russian group there. And besides Syria, there is Libya. There are Iran and Iraq. All Middle Eastern projects will have difficulties. There is a gas pipeline, power plants, weapons. There are a lot of losses,” says Dimitriev.
“Apparently, a truly turning point has arrived, after which the course of events may turn sharply. Erdogan has raised the stakes to the maximum. He does not intend to allow Damascus to regain control over Idlib; moreover, he needs a demonstration of military victory, and not another deal with Russia on demarcation lines and buffer zones. Apparently, the Turkish president really believes that we are talking about strategic issues - Turkey’s positioning in the Middle East as a whole and its future as an influential power. He is ready to defend Ankara’s right to resolve issues in its own “near abroad” by military means.
Previously, the focus was on the Kurdish issue, and here Russia made concessions, allowing the creation of a buffer zone and a partial cleansing of Syrian Kurdistan. Turkey does not want to negotiate on Idlib (at least for now), and is not considering the Afrin scenario. Ankara is willing to risk war with the “regime” (in Western terminology), counting on the fact that Russia will not fully intervene. Moscow's restrained rhetoric in recent weeks, when the situation was heating up, was probably perceived in Ankara as evidence of a reluctance to escalate, especially since the Russian side was constantly negotiating and making various proposals.
Erdogan is convinced that Russia must recognize his priority right in this region - after all, Turkey is a neighbor, while Russia is an external force, albeit an important one. But in doing so, he is driving Moscow into a corner, testing its credibility as an ally of Damascus. And the Kremlin and its environs really don’t like such checks. Russia firmly adheres to the opposite position - whatever one may say, everything is happening on the internationally recognized territory of Syria, so the space for concessions to the pressing neighboring country is quite narrow,” comments political scientist Fyodor Lukyanov.
Turkey will declare war on Syria today. Russia may be blocked from the Straits.