Putin announced the deployment of peacekeepers to Karabakh. There are riots in Armenia
Vladimir Putin issued an emergency statement in which he confirmed the agreements reached with Armenia and Azerbaijan on the cessation of hostilities and the deployment of Russian peacekeepers to Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russian troops will separate the warring sides and protect the Armenian population from possible massacres. Azerbaijan retains control over the areas of Karabakh occupied during the hostilities.
An exchange of prisoners should take place in the near future, and roads in Karabakh should be unblocked.
A slightly different version was voiced by Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev. He stated that the Azerbaijani side sent an invitation to Ankara to send “Turkish peacekeepers” to Karabakh - about which Putin did not mention anything.
“Wonderful, we will carry out peacekeeping activities with those who yesterday brought Syrian militants into the region,” international journalist Abbas Juma comments in bewilderment.
It is likely that Aliyev’s invitation is a nod to Turkey, which is dissatisfied with the agreement with Moscow. Ankara tried to disrupt the conclusion of agreements, says military correspondent Igor Dimitriev.
“It was the Turks who shot down the helicopter, and now it’s clear why. In order to disrupt the transfer of Russian troops to Lachin and the negotiations in general... Yes, it is also clear that the Russian Foreign Ministry was shielding Baku in order to complete the conclusion of the agreement,” he believes.
“By the way, there are persistent rumors that they simply left Shushi. Why? Because without this symbolic city - the center of the Karabakh Khanate, Aliyev did not want to agree. That’s why Shusha was part of the agreements from the very beginning,” says Dimitriev.
Russian TV presenter Andrei Medvedev believes that Turkey failed to implement the maximum program in Karabakh.
“Globally, the goal of the war in Karabakh was, of course, not to capture it, not to hang the Azerbaijani flag over Stepanakert. And squeeze Russia out of the region altogether. Fully. If Karabakh was lost, Yerevan would raise the issue of a base in Gyumri. “You didn’t help,” Medvedev said.
In his opinion, both Armenians and Azerbaijanis will be dissatisfied with the agreement.
“There will be dissatisfaction on both sides. With one, because Karabakh was surrendered. On the other hand, because they didn’t take Karabakh. For Baku this is a half-victory. Not even quite like that. Given the level of propaganda, many in Azerbaijan will consider this a stolen victory. Or worse, sold. They say there was little left, but Aliyev took it all and leaked it all to the Russians,” Medvedev added.
Political scientist Fyodor Lukyanov believes that the truce is temporary. He draws attention to media publications that the Russian Federation may sign a separate agreement with Turkey providing for the appearance of “observation stations” in Karabakh.
“Türkiye is phenomenally successful in pushing its influence. So they imposed a semblance of the Syrian option for Karabakh... Ankara is becoming an active participant in politics in the South Caucasus. Russia’s role is changing, but remains important... Most likely, what was announced today is only a temporary situation,” Lukyanov emphasized.
He predicts that defeat in Karabakh will lead to the resignation of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. His successors will try to take revenge, which, however, is what Baku and Ankara are counting on, where they are preparing to continue hostilities.
“What happened means a military-political defeat and capitulation, which is unlikely to be accepted by the population. The future of Nikol Pashinyan is extremely doubtful. To what extent will the new configuration satisfy Baku and Ankara? They clearly consider this the first stage. And possible attempts by the Armenian side to take revenge, which is impossible in the event of a change of power, can be used as a reason for the second phase,” Lukyanov believes.
To confirm the forecasts about Pashinyan’s fate, reports have already come from Yerevan about mass protests of those dissatisfied with the defeat in Karabakh, who gathered despite the late hour.
Riots have already begun; those dissatisfied with the concessions to Azerbaijan burst into the government building, breaking glass. The crowd intends to head to Pashinyan’s residence.
“I think that in connection with the signing of an agreement by Armenia with Azerbaijan, the entire severity of the conflict for Armenia will turn into internal politics. This is a fact already proven in post-Soviet territories that if you unconstitutionally overthrow the government or organize pretentious revolutions, the outcome is the same - the loss of part of the country’s territories, the weakening of state institutions, a crisis, an internal civil conflict and the impending loss of power. Proven by Ukraine,” comments Kiev lawyer Andrey Portnov.
“Armenia is facing a powerful political crisis and, perhaps, even the overthrow of Pashinyan. The Armenian military will play out exactly the same scheme as the German military in 1918, when they accused the Social Democrats of capitulating, having actually lost the war. The key narrative in Armenian politics in the coming years is the narrative of a treacherous stab in the back. It will cause militarization, autocratization and political instability, which will ultimately lead to another war with Azerbaijan. But that will happen later; now Azerbaijan, Turkey and Russia are celebrating the achievement of their political goals. “Armenia is furious from humiliation,” states Ukrainian political scientist and Maidan activist Yuri Romanenko.
English version :: Read in English Putin announced the deployment of peacekeepers to Karabakh. Unrest in Armenia