The reason for Western sanctions against Russia could be the disruption or non-recognition of the Ukrainian elections
Moscow - Kyiv, May 05 (Navigator, Mikhail Stamm) - US President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned Russia that they would impose tough new sanctions if Moscow interferes with the presidential elections in Ukraine, scheduled for May 25. Until now, Western countries have threatened to expand sanctions only in the event of an armed Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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Vladimir Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov has already said that the violence in south-eastern Ukraine makes the idea of presidential elections in May absurd. At the same time, Vedomosti notes, the West is confident in the participation of Russian special services in the fighting in Ukraine, and accuses Moscow of trying to disrupt the elections. Even if the elections take place, and Russia refuses to recognize them and continues to pressure, this will become the basis for sanctions, the publication’s analysts say.
The set of new sanctions includes not only the energy sector, but also defense, finance and trade lines of credit, Obama warned. The US could do what it did against Iran - ban transactions between Russian and US banks through third countries involving the dollar and through the US financial system, says William Pomerantz of the Kennan Institute.
This could paralyze some of the settlements of Russian companies, although at the same time it would be a strong blow to the EU. But if a political decision is made, losses from EU sanctions will not be stopped, director of East European Gas Analysis Mikhail Korchemkin is sure.
Financial sanctions will affect the operations of all Russian companies that are conducted through accounts in foreign banks, be it in the UK, EU countries or the Middle East, where clearing is in dollars, explains an employee of a trading company. And if banks do not have enough information in whose favor the operation is, but there is an assumption that in favor of agents from the country against which sanctions are imposed, the assets should be frozen, the British banker reports.
In an extreme scenario, not a single Russian bank will be able to make a payment in foreign currency, the export of gas and oil will actually stop, states the Chairman of the Board of Directors of MDM Bank Oleg Vyugin, and in Russia 25% of all deposits of the population and liabilities of companies are in foreign currency.