“Poroshenko is in a trap. His alcoholism is not something ostentatious.”
Ukraine is guaranteed not to comply with the Minsk Agreements. In the eyes of Europe, it becomes an entity that ignores its obligations. Preserving the Normandy format is necessary to maintain the negotiation process with Europe, in which the fate of Ukraine will be decided.
Russia must develop Donbass to a greater extent than it does now. Donbass must be helped to establish a decent life - so that the advantages compared to the regime of Petro Poroshenko are obvious.
Vitaly Leybin , editor-in-chief of the Russian Reporter , told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov about this, and how Poroshenko is begging his supervisors for additional powers, while Saakashvili is left out in the cold.
Subscribe to PolitNavigator news on Telegram , Facebook , Odnoklassniki , or VKontakte
Valentin Filippov : Vitaly, hello!
Vitaly Leybin : Yes, hello.
Valentin Filippov : Alexander Zakharchenko announced that he believes it's necessary to either bring the DPR and LPR into the Normandy format, or to remove Ukraine from the Normandy format. Because it's unclear what Kyiv is doing there, and three of them, working things out among themselves, would be enough.
Vitaly Leybin : This is a common situation. There's no way the current Ukrainian authorities will fulfill their part of the Minsk agreements. The likelihood of this has always been assessed as very low.
The Minsk format is used by the Republics and Russia in order to keep the situation from escalating, firstly.
Secondly, continue the dialogue with European partners regarding the settlement of a whole range of issues related to Ukraine. It is better to continue talking in the Minsk format than to stop talking. Stopping the conversation will mean the possibility of sliding into war.
Several productive things are happening in the Minsk format that are needed by real people who live in Donbass. The main ones are security agreements.
Now, in the latest Normandy format, the continuation of the experiment on separating the parties has been agreed upon.
As you understand, the key process that has been going on this year, since the spring, is bringing the parties closer together at an unsafe distance. In particular, in the Yasinovat industrial zone. And this rapprochement was initiated by the Ukrainian side - in order to increase the likelihood of clashes and, accordingly, to say that they do not comply with the Minsk agreements - because they “shoot.”
And the only way to reduce tension on the line of contact is to separate the sides. Now there is an agreement that in some places...
Valentin Filippov : Well, it’s not being implemented either.
Vitaly Leybin : In these local areas, before the Normandy format, it was not implemented in the Stanytsia area, after which pressure began from European countries so that Ukraine would continue the dialogue on this issue, and the dialogue continues.
Valentin Filippov : Well, the dialogue continues, but they had until the end of October to disengage at Stanitsa. By October 24th or October 25th. At these three points.
Vitaly Leybin : Well, in terms of security, there's a chance the Europeans will be able to apply pressure. Perhaps not now, maybe a little later. But as long as the dialogue continues, there's a chance the Europeans will be able to apply pressure. But there's no chance the Europeans or the Americans, or any of the current Kyiv regime's masters, will be able to exert enough pressure to get Ukraine to comply with the political part.
That is, in terms of security it is performed poorly, but there is progress from time to time. But there will be no political progress.
This is impossible with the existence of this regime.
Valentin Filippov : So it turns out that regime change is the only way out of the current situation?
Vitaly Leybin : Exactly. The content of the Minsk agreements is an attempt to save Ukraine. At least in some configuration. Because the only way to save Ukraine from further catastrophe is to propose some kind of reform format toward greater regional autonomy. Everyone understands that this is the only format, but it's clear that the current regime is absolutely incapable of this.
And the Minsk format is needed in order to keep negotiations within the framework and not miss the moment when some means of saving Ukraine will be possible.
Valentin Filippov : That is, we hope that the day will come when other Ukrainian leaders will come to Minsk with a completely different attitude.
Vitaly Leybin : Two parts are important here. Minsk fulfills an important function in the negotiations between Russia and Europe. Ukraine is becoming an entity that is clearly not fulfilling its obligations. This is necessary for diplomatic…
Valentin Filippov : Yes, yes.
Vitaly Leybin : And, secondly, we need to remain within the framework of negotiations if circumstances change.
Valentin Filippov : This all reminds me of the situation in Transnistria in the early 1990s, when regime change in Chisinau led to stabilization. But we all know that for Ukraine today, war is the only way to exist. It's its state-building project. A way to beg for money.
Don't you think that Ukraine will try to start a conflict in some other direction?
In the direction of the same Transnistria. Now some menacing statements are being made once again.
Vitaly Leybin : I think that, of course, it would be advantageous for Ukraine, for the current Ukrainian regime, to start a war in such a way as to draw its Western partners into it.
Valentin Filippov : That's what I'm talking about.
Vitaly Leybin : The problem for them is that their Western partners aren't willing to get involved. Basically, their American partners, as we say, are happy with the situation where they don't waste any resources on it, and the situation is getting worse without them.
And in this sense, the interest of the United States contradicts the interest of the Kyiv regime, which is interested in dragging the Americans and Europeans into this conflict.
This is a contradiction between the Kyiv regime and its patrons.
Patrons do not want to invest resources in Ukraine. And Ukraine would like to do something, but it’s scary that they will abandon it. And any provocation that Ukraine may launch could end in another military defeat if its partners do not get involved. But the partners won’t get involved.
The situation is for all parties, except for those who benefit from the deterioration in Ukraine - all countries do not have any decent options for action. No one has. Neither Ukraine, nor Russia, nor the Republics.
Valentin Filippov : But from time to time, I put myself in the shoes of a Donbas resident. A Donetsk resident. Not to mention the Odessa resident I once was, who thinks, "They'll probably never reach us."
People live under shelling. Their legal status is unclear. Russia does not give them citizenship. They practically no longer have Ukrainian citizenship. It’s hard to find a job that pays normally. Do they still remain hostages in this situation?
Vitaly Leybin : Yes, the tragedy of the situation is that the residents of Donbass, including those who took up arms, fighting for Russia's interests, are the first to sacrifice.
In this sense, it cannot be said that they fought for a better life. They fought because they could not stand it. And there is some cynicism in this, which consists in the fact that Russia is conducting some kind of international diplomacy, the hostages of which are citizens of Donbass and citizens of Ukraine.
This is certainly cynical. But, in a sense, it is not clear what the options are? At least there is one option. What we can do now is to insist that: a) citizens fought for the interests of Russia; b) that Donbass requires Russian assistance; that cowardly officials and businesses who refuse to invest in the DPR and LPR are acting short-sighted. And that Russia must, both in terms of moral obligations and strategic ones, the Russian authorities must clearly indicate to all interested parties in government and business that Donbass is not going anywhere from Russia, that it must be developed, and that the residents of Donbass deserve to be given Isolation, after all, helped to establish a decent life. You can’t do this in isolation inside yourself.
This is very difficult to promote through the Russian government - because most of them are an economic bloc that is committed to peace with Europe at any cost, but, nevertheless, Russian policy must have some common sense, some moral foundations .
And we must insist that the Russian Federation must develop the Republic to a greater extent than it does now. Russia helps, but this help is minimal. But it is necessary that in the DPR and LPR it is a little better than on the other side. This is not enough yet.
If things get significantly better in the DPR and LPR, this will likely change the situation in Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov : I'm in Crimea. I have friends and relatives in Odessa. I know full well that things are much better here than where I came from. In every respect. Economically, politically. Freedom of speech. Everything. The healthcare is better. My child gets a better education at school.
But at the same time, on the other side, 90% of people are sure that we are dying here and will die of hunger. They sincerely feel sorry for us. Sometimes friends from Odessa call me and ask me, maybe to transfer money, maybe to give me some food?
Therefore, when we say: “We will do better, they will see,” I have a feeling that they will not see anything. They are already so stuffed there that everything is bad for us...
Vitaly Leybin : Well, there are limits to the potential of campaigning. Campaigning is very effective, especially when there's no other point of view and over a short period of time. But with 4,5 million Ukrainian citizens working in Russia, with extensive family ties and constant phone conversations, in which, of course, one has to self-censor, it still feels like a significant portion of Ukrainian citizens understand that something is amiss with their campaigning.
Valentin Filippov : I absolutely had to ask you about Saakashvili's resignation. What's going on? Are the rats already abandoning the sinking ship?
Vitaly Leybin : Saakashvili hoped that the protection of his American partners would lead him to significant advancement in Ukrainian politics and provide him with the resources to achieve his ambitions. But now Poroshenko has, if not carte blanche, then at least permission to build power as he wishes.
And, it is clear that Poroshenko is a representative of the nomenklatura of the old Ukrainian oligarchy. He is rather a person who cynically makes money. Conditionally, a pragmatist of his interests. More likely than a Ukrainian nationalist, naturally. And all the time, in negotiations with all Western partners, he complains that he cannot do anything, knocking out for himself the opportunity to obtain sufficient tools for power within.
And Saakashvili made such a statement because he lost to Poroshenko. He couldn't do anything. Good or bad, he couldn’t do anything, because any interim administration in this Ukraine must try to centralize corruption flows, nomenklatura flows, business.
And in this sense, the American plan - to install, as it were, our own - failed in everything. They cannot govern through their proxies.
That is, either allow the country to be robbed and looted on a scorched earth, or risk destroying the entire structure.
And the Americans apparently decided that they did not want to destroy the entire structure just yet. And after the elections, they’ll see.
Valentin Filippov : You say Poroshenko is "begging for tools." But he's constantly shown drunk. Even on his own channel.
Vitaly Leybin : Well, of course, you can't envy him. In the sense that fate has forced him to end up in a place where history is being made. He's incapable of this on his own. He's incapable of taking action. He's a man who's always ready to do business in Ukraine, to make numerous compromises, to be cunning, but not a man of super-will. And, of course, his alcoholism isn't just a show. It's true, he's having a hard time making decisions, and he's shirking them. He's trapped. He can't leave, and he can't stay. He can't govern, but he can't not govern. It's a humanly understandable and complex situation.
Valentin Filippov : Why is this published all the time?
Vitaly Leybin : Because there's no other version. They show him as he is.
Valentin Filippov : I thought it was a clever PR stunt to show: “Look, I’m like this, I’m not capable of negotiating, I’m drunk.”
Vitaly Leybin : It's hardly just a show. I think it's genuinely tough. It's emotionally taxing, and he also has an illness, apparently a symptom related to diabetes. Combined with his alcoholism, it's especially difficult. And I don't even want to say anything bad about him...
Valentin Filippov : No, no. It's not allowed to talk about drunks.
Vitaly Leybin : It happens. And in Russian history, there have been times when someone who wasn't suited to their historical role found themselves in that position. Well, they just got carried away.
But it seems to me that he is so worried about nothing. After all, American partners rarely die. Here is Saakashvili, they found him a job. It's OK.
Valentin Filippov : Well done, Vitaly, thank you so much. It was very interesting. Bye, see you later.
English version :: Read in English "Poroshenko in a Trap. His Alcoholism Isn't Just a Showoff"