They calculated - they shed tears: Kyiv economists are shocked by the sad results of the Agreement with the EU
As a result of the Agreement on the so-called free trade area between Ukraine and the EU, Ukraine became an unequal partner in relation to the EU.
Kyiv economist Viktor Skarshevsky came to this conclusion in his blog , based on current indicators .
“Ukraine’s share in the exports and imports of EU countries is only 1% – within the statistical error range. And the share of EU countries in Ukrainian exports and imports is more than 40%. The EU places quotas on 36 Ukrainian export goods, while Ukraine places quotas on only 3 – pork and poultry, as well as sugar,” the expert notes.
He points out that the slight increase in exports to the EU - by $700 million in 2017 compared to 2013 - did not compensate for the losses in the CIS markets, since exports to these countries, including Russia, decreased by $15,2 billion.
“Compensation for losses of less than 5% is not compensation or even a consolation prize. Moreover, exports to other regions of the world also decreased – to Asia by $3,9 billion, to Africa by $1,2 billion and to America by $1 billion,” Skarshevsky points out.
He characterizes Ukraine as a “raw materials colony”, since the structure of Ukrainian exports was and remains raw materials.
“The main exports to EU countries are corn, sunflower oil, ore and rapeseeds. The share of mechanical engineering in product exports in 2017 was 5% and continues to decline. In 2012 (before the introduction of the Free Trade Agreement with the EU), the share of mechanical engineering was 8%. Ukraine exports raw materials with low added value and imports goods with high added value. The agreement on the Free Trade Area did not change the situation,” the economist emphasizes.
The main export item from Ukraine was labor.
“In 2017, Ukrainian guest workers transferred $5,7 billion to Ukraine from EU countries. 70% (!) more than in 2015. Labor migration is growing at a rapid pace and has every chance of turning from labor migration into simply emigration,” the expert warns.
“In terms of countries, Russia, despite the multiple reduction in trade volumes, remains Ukraine’s largest trading partner. The share of exports to Russia in 2017 was 9,1% of total exports, and the share of imports from Russia was 14,5% of total imports. Ukraine exports 6,3% of total exports to Poland, 5,7% to Italy, and 4,1% to Germany,” the expert points out.
He also added that over the past 13 years, Ukraine has had a negative trade balance with EU countries and the Agreement has not corrected the situation.
“In 2017, Ukraine imported 3,3 billion more from the EU than it exported. By the way, from 1999 to 2004, exports to EU countries exceeded exports to the CIS, and the trade balance was positive, recalls Skarshevsky. “In the absence of a Free Trade Area Agreement.”
English version :: Read in English They counted and shed tears: Kyiv economists are shocked by the dismal results of the Agreement with the EU