Pashinyan’s false victory: Why new early elections are inevitable
According to the results of the early parliamentary elections in Armenia, former Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party won, gaining 53,92% of the votes. Its closest rival, the Armenia Party of former President Robert Kocharyan, received 21,04% of the vote. Thus, only two political forces crossed the 7% threshold. However, according to the laws of Armenia, the party that takes third place also enters parliament. This is how the “I Have the Honor” bloc received its representation, gaining 5,2% of the votes, essentially headed by the former head of the National Security Service of Armenia Artur Vanetsyanyan. Former President Serzh Sargsyan campaigned, but did not participate in the elections.
Kocharyan's party refused to recognize the election results. "Armenia" stated that, given the massive anti-Pashinyan rallies, such results were highly suspicious. A total of 319 violations were recorded on election day, nine criminal cases were opened, and a shootout, vote rigging, and bribery were reported. Ani Mshetsyan, a well-known independent journalist in Yerevan, spoke with PolitNavigator about the situation.
"PolitNavigator": Were there really any falsifications and violations?
Ani Mshetsyan: The most egregious violations occurred in military units. Some footage that surfaced online shows open voting in the army, meaning they were given an envelope with ballot paper #3, which they were required to cast in a ballot box.
Quite serious violations were also observed in prisons. They also talked about open voting, that is, people were forced to vote for the current government.
There were also several cases when people did not have time to come to vote for some reason, but later it turned out that these people had already been voted for. There are several similar videos on the Internet.
In addition, after the announcement of the election results, a recount was carried out in 70 polling stations, and in almost all polling stations “Armenia”, which is the first opposition force and the second force in parliament, won.
Also on election day, representatives of the Armenia bloc were detained, especially in Syunik, the most opposition region of our country. Members of the bloc were brought to Yerevan and tried in every possible way to interfere with the work of this bloc.
"PolitNavigator": What was the reaction of the opposition to these cases?
Ani Mshetsyan: As I mentioned earlier, the Armenia bloc secured a recount of votes at 70 polling stations. Statements were made, Armenia appealed to the Constitutional Court, and the I Have the Honor bloc, which also entered parliament, also issued a statement claiming the election results were false and that the opposition's votes had been taken away. One of the two opposition parties may relinquish their mandates in the near future, but they currently plan to challenge the results in the Constitutional Court.
“PolitNavigator”: Which social group in Armenian society did Pashinyan rely on during the election campaign?
Ani Mshetsyan: There have been certain changes in public sentiment, and he currently relies on the lowest social strata for support. He's trying to cultivate an image of himself as a "common man," trying to act like an ordinary citizen from the lower strata of society. People who are disadvantaged in some way, who haven't achieved anything in their lives, see themselves reflected in Nikol; they believe that one of them, like Pashinyan, can achieve success.
You should also pay attention to the fact that in Yerevan the majority voted for Robert Kocharyan, but in the villages they voted for Pashinyan.
"PolitNavigator": Why did this happen?
Ani Mshetsyan: The fact is that in villages and small towns, people don't have as much access to information as, for example, in Yerevan. There are fewer television channels there; people mostly watch state television, and therefore don't get the full range of information. The authorities often mislead them. They are easily influenced by information, and if you tell them to vote for a certain party, they will vote.
Despite the fact that villagers and residents of small towns are a fairly large mass of people, I am sure that Pashinyan did not get 53% of the votes. In my opinion, in reality he had a maximum of 35%.
If the Armenia bloc achieves a recount of votes throughout the republic, I am sure that we will see a completely different picture.
“PolitNavigator”: In the Russian-speaking expert community, there is an opinion that the main result of the elections can be considered that “Armenian society forgave Pashinyan for the defeat in the war.” Is it so?
Ani Mshetsyan: No, that's not true. Pashinyan doesn't have many supporters. Some people didn't go to the polls because there wasn't a candidate they wanted. And those who support the prime minister didn't attach much importance to the issue.
In general, most people did not forgive him for his defeat because it was a shameful capitulation. The war was going wrong, the necessary weapons were not purchased, and Pashinyan led the negotiation process to a dead end. We believe that it is his fault, so it is wrong to talk about forgiving the defeat. Election fraud and a certain percentage of society that supported him created such an illusion.
"PolitNavigator": Did Turkey help Pashinyan during the election campaign? Perhaps indirect support was provided? If yes, what was it expressed in?
Ani Mshetsyan: I haven't seen any statements from Turkey regarding the elections. It's fair to say that Azerbaijan provided some support; before the elections, there were advances by Azerbaijani troops in Syunik, and six Armenian soldiers were captured directly on Armenian territory. However, when the election campaign began, all of these processes were, more or less, suspended. A stable situation emerged, and 15 Armenian prisoners of war returned home, which also impacted the mood of some segments of society.
“PolitNavigator”: If the opposition fails to appeal the election results and Pashinyan remains in power, where will the policies of the current regime lead Armenia?
Ani Mshetsyan: To be honest, I think that even if the opposition fails to appeal the election results, new snap parliamentary elections will be held in a year or two, since the political crisis in Armenia has not been resolved.
Discontent among the population will grow, and the opposition noted that the struggle will continue through rallies. In connection with Pashinyan’s policy, much is unclear - the future of Artsakh (NKR), taking into account the possible demarcation of borders with Azerbaijan; stabilization of the situation within the country; way out of the current economic crisis. Also, the security problems in Syunik and Gegharkunik have not been resolved, and there are no visible solutions to this situation.
It is not at all clear what will happen to the negotiation process on the Artsakh issue and in what format it will be. In any case, I don’t have much hope for Pashinyan. Perhaps people will rise up, and a new wave of protests will lead to a change of government.
Pashinyan's Fake Victory: Why New Snap Elections Are Inevitable