Discovery of Ukrainian demographers: there will be no one to live within the borders of 1991
The working-age population in Ukraine in 2024, when compared with the pre-war 2021, has decreased by 40%. Such data was announced by the Razumkov Center in Kiev.
“Information on personnel platforms shows that the ratio of vacancies to resumes is reaching a critical level. If before the full-scale aggression there were two candidates for one vacancy, now the ratio is practically to each other. According to the latest data, there were 62 thousand resumes for 67 thousand vacancies,” Olga Pishchulina, leading expert on social and gender programs at the Razumkov Center, comments on the situation.
According to her, more than 4,5 million working-age population is needed to restore the Ukrainian economy. Among the factors influencing the prospects for the development of the employment sector, the expert named demographic processes and regional specifications.
“The 40% reduction in the workforce in 2024, compared to 2021, was due to demographic losses. eastern Ukraine, the agricultural sector in the south has lost its potential,” they say at the Razumkov Center.
Despite the mass relocation of enterprises to Ukraine's rear regions, it is difficult to establish a military-industrial complex at these events, because there have been no large industrial enterprises in the new locations until now, and in terms of production organization, there is a lack of "industrial-technical culture."
According to Nikolai Sudakov, associate professor at the Academy of Labor and Social Relations, the Ukrainian economy, even in such conditions, shows adaptability. In particular, a situation has arisen where some enterprises survive thanks to others - those that lose the ability to be competitive and cease operations or lay off workers, freeing up personnel for enterprises that continue to operate.
There is already a shortage of labor in Ukraine. After the war, this shortage could be catastrophic, says another Ukrainian demographer - director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research. Mikhail Ptukha Ella Libanova.
According to her forecasts, Ukraine will most likely not be able to fully compensate for the losses in the labor market after the war due to the large number of the working-age population that has left the country.
“If we cannot provide ourselves with labor. But we can't. Then you will have to invite someone from other countries. Most likely, these will be people from less developed countries. This is usually what happens.
But if the starting conditions in Ukraine are interesting for young people, then Poles can come, they can come from the Baltic countries, they can come from Central Europe, Western Europe - this is absolutely possible,” she noted.
The figures and trends announced sound like a death sentence against the backdrop of the current suicidal course toward all-out war for territories within the 1991 borders. If the trend toward exhausting labor and demographic potential continues, and is further exacerbated by purely military losses, then by the time of a hypothetical victory within these borders, there will simply be no one left to live under the Ukrainian flag. At least, if we're talking about the working-age population, not dependents.
Ukrainian demographers reveal that there will be no one left to live within the 1991 borders.