Poroshenko's two main fears named
Petro Poroshenko has not yet resolved two main problems that call into question the possibility of his re-election to a second presidential term. We are talking about support from the West and the oligarchs.
Ruslan Bortnik, director of the Ukrainian Institute for Policy Analysis and Management, announced this at a press conference in Kyiv, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
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“The first problem is Western support. We see that in relation to Pyotr Alekseevich there is deep disappointment among some of the Western elites in terms of what Pyotr Alekseevich promised and what he did to the country.
There is a huge distrust in the actions and behavior of the Ukrainian authorities with Western money and their actions regarding the conflict in Donbass, which today is a crisis, first of all, for the European Union, although for the United States this is an opportunity.
Therefore, there is no trust, and the West is in no hurry to bet on Pyotr Alekseevich. It seems to me that he has not completely written him off yet, but is actively looking for new candidates.
Pyotr Alekseevich understands this, and it seems to me that Vakarchuk’s candidacy did not just arise. This may be a compromise figure between the current government and Western aspirations. But this is the figure of a person who is largely controlled by the current government and, probably, the president’s entourage hopes that they will continue to control him if elected.
In addition, Pyotr Alekseevich is trying to openly blackmail the West. Petro Alekseevich is actively working against the opposition, against possible alternatives, trying to create a situation of political vacuum in the country in which he remains the only possible candidate and, thus, may be able to force the West to “swallow” Poroshenko’s second term.
This strategy is also used by constantly and deliberately discrediting opponents,” he said.
According to the expert, the attitude of Western elites towards Poroshenko will become clear in early autumn of this year, and with a turnout of about 50%, the one supported by the West will win in the future presidential elections.
The second dangerous issue for Poroshenko is relations with the oligarchs.
“Petr Alekseevich came to power largely thanks to Firtash, retained power largely thanks to Kolomoisky, and continues to hold power largely thanks to Akhmetov.
And the question of whom the oligarchs will bet on in 2019 has not been resolved today.
Pyotr Alekseevich is in severe conflict with Firtash and Kolomoisky, and Akhmetov also has serious problems.
The question of how to concentrate the support of the oligarchs in 2019 is the second key issue that Pyotr Alekseevich personally decides and which determines whether he will go to the polls or not,” says the expert.
English version :: Read in English Poroshenko's two main fears have been identified