The Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation proposes to reduce the price of gas for Ukraine to please the IMF
Moscow - Kyiv, May 06 (Navigator, Mikhail Stamm) - The International Monetary Fund, allocating a loan of $17 billion to Ukraine, expects that Moscow will reduce the price of gas for Kiev by $100 - to $380 per thousand cubic meters. Otherwise, lending conditions may worsen. By a strange coincidence, the Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation issues the same forecast: according to its calculations, the cost of Russian gas for Ukraine will drop to $350. In conditions of acute confrontation, this looks like Moscow subsidizing a hostile regime.
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Kommersant drew attention to the strange coincidence of the forecasts of the IMF and the Russian Ministry of Economy regarding the price of Russian gas supplied to Ukraine. Let us recall that after the cancellation of the Kharkov agreements and the corresponding discount on gas in the amount of $100 for every thousand cubic meters, the price of gas for Kyiv increased to almost $500. Ukraine is trying to challenge this price, including in the courts, but Moscow does not intend to give in - especially in a situation where relations between the two countries are more reminiscent of war than peace. In addition, Ukraine has not yet fulfilled its obligations under the contract. What are the reasons for such forecasts?
According to officials of the IMF and the Ministry of Economy, the general reduction in the price of gas in Europe leads to a reduction in the price of Russian gas for Ukraine. So spot gas prices in the EU are now approximately $350. But Russia has never been guided by such prices: the price of gas under contracts with Gazprom is tied to oil prices, and they are not falling at all. For some reason, the IMF and the Russian Ministry of Economy do not take this into account. Moreover, they are talking about the return of the $100 discount, for which there is no apparent reason.
IMF forecasts for gas prices are not just reference information for the Ukrainian government, but an important guideline, since they represent one of the conditions for continued lending. Naftogaz has already sent a pre-arbitration claim to Gazprom and is going to achieve a reduction in the contract price, as almost all of Gazprom’s European clients managed to do. But, according to Sergei Vakhrameev from Anchor Invest, the average European price of $350-380 is an overly optimistic scenario for Ukraine. If the price is reduced, it will be no more than to about $430 per thousand cubic meters.
The Russian Ministry of Economy proposes lowering gas prices for Ukraine to please the IMF.