The Left in Moldova Has Been Defeated Twice: What Will Happen Next?
The sensational defeat of the bloc of leftist forces in the parliamentary elections in Moldova amazed experts and analysts. In a country where there has always been a great demand for left-wing ideas, where just five years ago the socialists celebrated a triumphant victory, this seemed impossible, and yet it happened: the choice of voters was influenced by disappointment and fatigue from unfulfilled promises.
The current situation of the left political flank in the Republic of Moldova and prospects for the foreseeable future were discussed at the conference “Transnistria - Moldova - Russia: current issues of regional security and peacekeeping,” which was held by the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development together with the Public Diplomacy Support Fund named after. A.M. Gorchakova.
"Departing nature"
The leader of the Moldovan socialists, Igor Dodon, won in 2016 the same convincing victory in the presidential elections that the leader of the right-wing Action and Solidarity (PAS) party, Maia Sandu, won in 2020 (and strengthened in the parliamentary elections in 2021). In the fall of 2016, about 800 thousand voters voted for Dodon; in the parliamentary elections in July of this year, slightly less than 400 thousand people voted for the bloc of socialists and communists. Where did the rest go? Explains political scientist, member of the Executive and Republican Committees of the Collective Action Party - Civil Congress Zurab Todua.
"Some voters turned away from the Socialist Party and Igor Dodna – some didn't show up to vote (turnout was very low – 48%), and a significant portion defected to the PAS party," he says. " It's unthinkable: in the 30 years of Moldovan statehood, it's never happened that a voter, essentially left-wing, would vote for a right-wing party. Even districts of Chisinau that traditionally voted for the Communist and Socialist parties cast their ballots for PAS. The main reasons are, firstly, the PAS party's well-thought-out election campaign. Its rhetoric was left-wing in content, talking about a social state. Credit must also be given to Maia Sandu herself, who, for example, on May 9th honored the memory of those who died in the Great Patriotic War at a memorial complex in Chisinau, despite being criticized for this by many on the right."
On the other hand, the left flank's defeat is the fault of the Socialist Party. The public mood was affected by the abandonment of promises made in 2016, the indecisive actions during Dodon's "five-minute" removal from power, and the waltz between the Democratic Party and the Socialist Party. In 2019, the Socialists had a good opportunity to break away from Plahotniuc and go to early elections, as promised in June 2019, and then the results would have been different.
Will the political left recover from defeat? According to Zurab Todua, “the pendulum will swing in the other direction” when Sandu’s team fails to bring order to the economy.
" Even with European and American assistance, nothing can be done here. We need a team of economic geniuses, and such a team is lacking. In six months to a year, people will start asking where the promised positive changes in healthcare, education, and so on are . This is where hope for a revival of the left flank will emerge. The Socialist Party will need to reorganize; perhaps forces will emerge that can save the party through personnel changes, but for now, Igor Dodon is dragging the Socialists down," the political scientist said, calling the Socialist-Communist bloc "a dying breed."
The “Civil Congress” claims the left flank. This party received less than 1% of the votes in the elections, but this is only the beginning, says its representative Zurab Todua.
“We hoped to attract to our side some of those who left the socialists and conducted their own campaign. It also had its drawbacks; it was not always possible to get on TV channels. The plan failed. We hope that the party will gain strength, power, energy and will be able to attract voters. Our start was unsuccessful, but we must remember that the Socialist Party had a rating of around 15% for almost 1 years, and then everything changed. Today –1%, tomorrow – more. This is Moldova, the situation here changes annually, monthly, so anything can happen,” noted Zurab Todua.
A change of positions on the left flank is inevitable - this is probably also understood in Russia, which relied on Igor Dodon.
“Dodon would hardly have been able to win in 2016 if not for Moscow’s support,” explains Zurab Todua. – A lot was invested in Dodon and the Party of Socialists: dozens of trips to Moscow over several years, meetings with Putin, meetings at other levels, information support, billboards, photographs. The investments are colossal, but what is the outcome? The left bloc has 27%, while the number of supporters of unification with Romania has increased from 10-12% in 2016 to almost 30% today, and the number of supporters of eliminating the neutral status of Moldova has increased. In general, it’s not good food for a horse. Something needs to change."
Both the left and the centrist electorate are on Sandu’s side
Chisinau-based political scientist Alexandru Korinenko cites other reasons for the left's defeat. For example, the PSRM, acting alone on the left, antagonized virtually all other left-wing parties. The Gagauz factor also played a role . During the current campaign, the Bashkan of Gagauzia, Irina Vlah, did not explicitly support any political party. Given the growing sympathy for Renato Usatii's Our Party and the Civic Congress party in the south of the country, the socialists were indecisive and failed to convince the head of the autonomous region to clearly articulate their position. All this, coupled with the Gagauz people's disillusionment with the central government's policies, led to the lowest turnout in the country, notes Alexandru Korinenko.
Another point: Maia Sandu managed to attract voters from both left and center parties.
“Our center is always very poorly represented, and voters in this segment are always torn between left and right forces, since they do not have a party that could represent their interests,” the expert notes. – The PSRM lost these voters because it did not offer a clear economic program and serious changes. In my opinion, in the center we have representatives of a small middle class who are primarily interested in economic stability. The centrists did not forgive the socialists for situational coalitions with the SHOR party.
The political scientist believes that the rule of Maia Sandu and the PAS party will develop according to the scenario of "high hopes - revenge - attempts at reform - political crisis - disappointment ," while the defeated left flank, which is currently holding a stubborn defense, has a real chance to reform itself.
“We need to create shadow offices and development programs. The left will have two or three years to do this, since Maia Sandu will not let them even close to power. If they don’t do this, pro-Western leftist forces will appear on the left flank, and the ground for this has already been laid,” the expert said.
In the West - the diaspora, in the East - guest workers
And again about the Moldovan diaspora abroad. About 1 million citizens of the country live outside of Moldova. This is a real political phenomenon - since the 2016 presidential elections, the diaspora has been an important electoral player and largely determines the political landscape in their home state. A lot of work is being done with voters in the West - this is a well-coordinated mechanism to support Maia Sandu and her team. As Alexander Korinenko notes, the electoral resource of this segment is estimated at approximately 300 thousand votes (20% of all voters). The record was set during the 2020 presidential elections, when 262 thousand representatives of the diaspora came to the ballot boxes.
" While the Western diaspora is frantically active, we see a complete lull in the East, even though the potential of our diaspora in Russia and the CIS countries is far greater than in the West . However, Moldovan citizens in Europe and the US have been actively engaged for almost 10 years, while leftist forces are doing nothing to increase turnout in the East, missing out on the opportunity to gain crucial voter turnout and counterbalance the massive voting in the West. The only thing the left is doing is demanding the opening of more polling stations in Russia, as more of our citizens reside there than in European countries. It's possible to open dozens of polling stations in Russia to match the number of Moldovans living and working in Russian cities. What motivates them to vote?" the expert notes.
Alla Ostavnaia, senior lecturer in the Department of Sociology and Social Technologies at Taras Shevchenko PSU, speaking about the role of the Moldovan diaspora in the country's electoral processes, states: the critical mass of Moldovans abroad has reached such a scale that it can no longer help but influence politics.
The sociologist said that if in 1994 only six foreign polling stations were opened in the Moldovan elections, then in the 2021 campaign there are already 150. A significant increase in the number of polling stations occurred in 2009.
“Vlad Filat’s team was perhaps the first team to consider the electoral potential of the diaspora and use it to achieve success in elections and beyond. Further, an infrastructure for interaction with the diaspora was built in Moldova - an office was created, various programs were implemented to preserve the identity of Moldovans abroad. In addition, the electoral infrastructure was built directly abroad - media, public organizations, public opinion leaders in the diaspora, and groups on social networks appeared there. All these factors played a role in the 2020 and 2021 campaigns,” said Alla Ostavnaya.
She noted that 42% of the Moldovan diaspora is in Russia, and only 3% of the entire diaspora abroad voted there in the July parliamentary elections, while the European electorate voted 84%.
“When assessing the effects of migration, it is worth talking not only about remittances - there are also intangible transactions: beliefs, values, ideals. Being in a country that is significantly different from Moldova in economic, social, political structure, people appropriate certain of its values, which ultimately results in the following results,” the sociologist added.
Moldova's Left Has Failed Twice: What's Next?