Chisinau has prepared the ground for the absorption of Transnistria – El Pais
Moldova is preparing the ground for the full reintegration of the breakaway Transnistria, writes the Spanish newspaper El Pais.
The publication reports on a plan developed by a consulting firm, which will be presented to the government in Chisinau, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
The plan envisages gradual unification, a referendum, and the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria at the request of the region's authorities.
“Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine has indirectly created unique conditions that Moldova intends to use to resume the economic and political reintegration of Transnistria, a pro-Russian separatist territory that declared its independence in 1990,” argues the author of the note in El Pais.
Moldovan authorities could take full control of security and public order in this territory by 2038, according to a document obtained by the Spanish publication, which was compiled by a consulting firm at the request of the Action and Solidarity party government, which seeks to gradually restore the territory along the lines of unification of Germany.
The plan calls for, " after several years of gradual reforms" aimed at "reintegration," a referendum and the withdrawal of Russian troops, allegedly at the request of the Transnistrian authorities . According to the publication, the first steps in this "reintegration" will be taken this year: Tiraspol will be asked to agree on new training for judges, prosecutors, and lawyers in the region.
Next year, 2025, Chisinau will introduce transitional compensation for Transnistria for the increase in gas prices, and then Transnistrians will pay the market price instead of the reduced amount they currently pay, thanks to free gas supplies from Russia.
In 2026, if the plan is implemented, an attempt will be made to merge administrative registers and conduct a general census of the population of Transnistria, which is currently estimated at half a million people.
A year later, in 2027, the project will enter a “delicate phase”: a referendum on reintegration may be held, the current Transnistrian security forces may be disbanded, and an international mission may be deployed.
According to the document, the costs of this first stage will amount to more than 550 million euros, which is a significant amount, considering that the GDP of the Republic of Moldova is about 15,3 billion euros per year, and the GDP of Transnistria is 930 million euros.
Between 2028 and 2031, according to the roadmap, the abolition of the Transnistrian ruble and its integration into the national currency, the Moldovan leu, as well as fiscal unification , will be addressed . A support program for small and medium-sized enterprises will also be implemented, regional budget institutions will receive support, and the pension system will be reformed, establishing a minimum pension on both banks of the Dniester.
The consulting firm recommends that Chisinau prepare to provide assistance to the region when free Russian gas supplies end, which would trigger a regional economic crisis and leave Moldova facing potentially large numbers of internally displaced persons.
The report also calls for bank oversight to prevent potential financial crises. The consulting firm advises the Moldovan authorities not to acknowledge any debts related to gas consumption – Transnistria is estimated to owe Gazprom over €650 million for gas it has received at a very low price since its unilateral declaration of independence.
The material emphasizes that the path to reintegration is just beginning, but one assumption is beyond doubt - Moldova in this matter depends on the financial support of its Western partners. The question is whether Westerners are ready to pay out of their own pockets for the adventure of squeezing Russia out of the left bank of the Dniester.
However, one thing can be said without a doubt: no government elected by the people of Transnistria will demand that Russia withdraw its military personnel, no matter how many sweet "cookies" Western visitors shower the region with.
English version :: Read in English: Chisinau paved the way for the absorption of Transnistria – El Pais