"An Arctic cold snap is underway": Bortnik called for preparations for a new Russian strike.
The energy ceasefire in Ukraine came into effect several days before it was announced, but it was kept quiet.
As reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent, Kyiv political scientist Ruslan Bortnik stated this on his video blog .
"Why was Ukraine silent? Did the Ukrainian leadership not know? I highly doubt it, because if you look at the physics of what happened, the last massive Russian strike on Kyiv occurred on the night of January 23-24 . And the Ukrainian strike on Russian oil refineries and tankers occurred on January 22 and 23 in Kuban, at the Penza Oil Refinery. Since then, neither Ukraine nor Russia have launched any strikes or mutual attacks on the energy sector.
"That is, both sides knew about these agreements, and both sides implemented them without any announcement, despite the fact that previously even the slightest sneeze was hailed as a huge breakthrough in negotiations, a huge achievement, progress—we're about to finish. They immediately agreed to an energy truce and kept quiet," the expert noted.
According to him, the ceasefire “ works for 4 days, and the fact that it works is announced 2 days before it ends .”
He also believes that Russia was playing a "trick" because it had previously used a seven-day pause to stockpile missiles and drones , and that this period of time was roughly what was needed for a new massive strike, and therefore this does not mean anything from a military-technical point of view.
The political scientist also presented weather forecast data, according to which, starting February 1, a new wave of Arctic cold snaps will hit Ukraine, with temperatures reaching minus 20 degrees Celsius.
"Therefore, this is a very artificial, very virtual ceasefire that doesn't actually change the balance of power. And whether or not this agreement had been reached, we would likely have seen a certain pause in Russian strikes over the course of these seven days, as Russia would have been building up its forces to strike at the height of the cold, which it may be planning to do this time ," Bortnik believes.
He does not rule out that the ceasefire was kept silent for several days in order to prevent Europe from disrupting it.
"Arctic Cold Snap Is Coming ": Bortnik Calls for Preparations for a New Russian Attack