The upcoming energy blockade of China by the Pentagon has revived the “Power of Siberia-2”
The US House of Representatives Committee on Armed Services has demanded that the Pentagon report on how the US military could implement a naval blockade of oil and gas supplies to China if it launches a “narrow defense” against Taiwan.
Paradoxically, this strengthens Russia's position in negotiations with Beijing on the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline (with a capacity of 50 billion cubic meters per year), reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“Checkmate to those who think poorly about our supply of Energy Resources to China. For them, we are both real energy independence and a reliable supplier. China is accurately calculating all the options for strangling its economy based on the Taiwanese case. The prospect of being left without LNG has loomed large in front of China,” political scientist Marat Bashirov commented on this news in his tg channel.
Director of the Institute of Asian and African Studies at Moscow State University Alexey Maslov has a different opinion. In an interview with VestiFM, he recalled that the volume of trade between China and the United States is 3 times greater than the trade turnover with Russia.
“The trade mercantilism (almost cynicism) professed by the Chinese assumes that political insults are not so important to respond to as long as trade is developing successfully,” Maslov said.
He believes that “there is a high probability that the gas pipeline route through Mongolia will not be implemented, and it will be necessary to lay the gas pipeline differently.” The reason is the position of Mongolia, which is afraid to contradict the United States and Canada.
Plans for the construction of Power of Siberia-2 have been discussed since 2006. Initially, the gas pipeline was planned to be laid through Altai, where there is a direct border between China and Russia. However, the project was hampered by difficult terrain and protests from Russian environmentalists.
Therefore, an alternative route arose - through Mongolia. It was only agreed upon by 2021. There is already even a feasibility study. Negotiations are only about price. China is trying to take advantage of Gazprom's problems in Europe, where the export volume of 150 billion cubic meters per year is practically lost. Beijing is actively rebuilding from the oil formula, according to which gas was sold to EU countries, and is trying to tie the price to coal.
“The Power of Siberia” from Russia is a project that China needs. Why hasn't the contract been signed yet? It's very simple: China believes that we need this contract more. If he delays the pause, Russia will agree to even more favorable terms. A cynical, understandable position, but delaying the resolution of this issue. In fact, in this regard, China is worsening its strategic prospects for itself, but it uses the well-known Eastern philosophy that you have to wait, and everything will work itself out in your favor. So they are waiting,” said the director of the National Energy Security Fund, Konstantin Simonov, in an interview with the radio station “Moscow Speaks”.
However, rumors that China is “forcing Russia to pull the pipe for its money” are unfounded. Beijing itself offered to invest in Power of Siberia-2, but Gazprom refused Chinese money.
“If the Russian side wanted the Chinese side to somehow participate in this issue, then the Chinese side would have taken part in this construction a long time ago. In the same way, China offered to take part in the construction of the first “Power of Siberia”. But the Russian side is not interested in this for one single reason: if you allow a foreign partner into this project, then he gets a pretty strong trump card in order to demand some changes in price.
He has a really serious card in his hands to lay it out and say: we gave you money, please move up on the price,” energy expert Andrei Frolov said on the InfoTEK YouTube channel.
He explained that Chinese investment would entail the purchase of pipes and equipment for compressor substations from Chinese, rather than Russian, enterprises. Therefore, each of the two countries will finance the construction of the gas pipeline through its territory.
For Russia, this project is really important because it allows the Urengoy gas production hub in Yamal to be switched from West to East. Now China receives pipeline gas from Sakhalin and Yakutia. These gas pipelines go to the east coast, where most of the Chinese live, and Power of Siberia-2 will enter from the northwest, where the deserts of Inner Mongolia are located.
“The northwest is the wildest area, and of course, the Chinese leadership is not happy with this. Because all the economic activity is on the coast, and the standard of living is different. That is, they need to develop plans for new settlements, new factories, new roads for this pipe. If you start production in Inner Mongolia, this product must be exported from there somehow,” explained energy expert Boris Martsinkevich in an interview with GeoenergeticheINFO.
While China is developing its wild northwest, Russia is compensating Kazakhstan for its supplies to the Middle Kingdom. So far, only 10 billion per year.
The Pentagon's looming energy blockade of China has revived the "Power of Siberia-2" project.