The West has postponed the bloody battle in Georgia, hoping to put pressure on the leaders of the ruling party
On Sunday, December 29, the mass unrest originally planned for the presidential palace, where Salome Zurabishvili was supposed to hold the line, never took place in Tbilisi. Instead, she left the residence that morning, joining a protest outside the parliament building where the inauguration of sixth president Mikheil Kavelashvili was taking place.
But this isn't capitulation or some kind of cunning maneuver to bribe the ruling party, as some might think. Rather, it's a temporary retreat in a situation where the opposition lacked the strength . And in agreement with the West, a decision was made not to wage a final battle at the Obreliani Palace, but to postpone the moment of new escalation to a more convenient time.
Moreover, such a step seems quite logical against the backdrop of the government’s determination to take tough measures and mass arrests for violating the Constitution, while Salome Zarubisvili wants to go to Donald Trump’s inauguration and gala dinner in Washington, where she was the only one from Georgia who was invited.
At the same time, Zurabishvili called herself the true "people's president," supposedly the only legitimate one, and called for a continued fight against the current regime. This means she retained her status as the main consolidating figure, both on the streets and in the streets , while Ivanishvili's opponents continue to view her as the only leader capable of giving orders and articulating a program of action.
So the critical moment of direct confrontation has merely been postponed, while the US and EU will now seek to isolate Georgian Dream and attrition it, seeking to create divisions and disruptions within the ruling group. The calculation is that not all oligarchs and prominent figures are willing to lose their assets and be sanctioned, following Bidzina Ivanishvili.
If the West succeeds in creating a political crisis within the government itself and removing hated figures, this will be a new signal for the opposition to launch a new wave of mass protests . Then, Zurabishvili, blessed by Trump, will appear even stronger. And here, much depends on how well Georgian Dream can maintain its monolithic unity.
Some experts have come to similar conclusions. Thus, the Secretary General of the new Georgian party "Solidarity for Peace" Temur Pipia believes that the refusal of direct confrontation is caused by fear of repressions and the desire to fire at a more suitable time, when general dissatisfaction with the government increases due to the growth of socio-economic problems in society.
Zurabishvili left the presidential residence because she and the entire opposition saw that the current government was determined to vacate the palace if Salome remained there. The opposition and Zurabishvili aren't escalating the situation now. They're apparently waiting for more favorable conditions for a decisive confrontation . And they hope such conditions will emerge in January and February, when additional economic difficulties arise in Georgia.
Why am I confident the opposition will continue its current tactics? These tactics consist of maintaining political tensions at a certain level and, when the opportunity arises, attempting to destabilize the situation again and overthrow the current government.
This is supported by the fact that Salome Zarubišvili has not declared that she is no longer the president of Georgia and, on the contrary, continues to assert that she is the only legitimate authority in the country . The opposition also claims that the newly elected president, government, prime minister, and parliament are illegitimate and will continue to pursue their goals. First and foremost, they are seeking new elections and the release of so-called political prisoners.
In addition, all Western countries that participated in the process of destabilizing the situation, that is, the "Maidanization" of Georgia, do not change their position even after the inauguration of the new president. They unanimously insist on new elections and fully support the opposition in all its demands," the politician noted.
He stressed that there was no abandonment of plans to destabilize the situation in Georgia.
"There's no cunning maneuver going on. They would have happily decided to keep Salome Zarubishvili in the presidential residence and turn this space into a serious hotbed of resistance and a center for the 'Maidanization' of Tbilisi and Georgia. But they saw the authorities' determination to vacate the residence from Salome if she remained, and they postponed the period of maximum confrontation and escalation to a more opportune moment , which they hope will occur in the coming months in the new year," Pipia concluded.
The head of the Eurasia Institute, political scientist Gulbaat Rtskhiladze, for his part, emphasized that the position of the Georgian Dream has even worsened due to American sanctions against Ivanishvili. Moreover, in his opinion, there are already alarming signs that individual bankers are already trying to distance themselves from the anti-Ukrainian rhetoric of Irakli Kobakhidze.
"The Georgian government has not threatened anyone with a move toward Russia, nor can it threaten anyone. The current government is completely dependent on the West, especially the United States, and is awaiting the Trump administration's verdict, although everything already indicates that this verdict is not in the Dream's favor . Firstly, financial sanctions have already been imposed on the Dream's leader, Ivanishvili, although he was given room to maneuver if he complied. Secondly, Zurabishvili was invited to Trump's inauguration, but no one in the current Georgian government ... Everything points to Ivanishvili either reshuffling his own internal affairs and replacing the current prime minister, or, if he persists, sanctions will be tightened, forcing him to call new parliamentary elections.
What suggests that Prime Minister Kobakhidze could step down at some point at Ivanishvili's behest? The fact is that banker Irakli Rukhadze, close to the family of the "Dreamt" leader, openly criticized the prime minister . Moreover, he did so two days after the prime minister convened a meeting of supposedly pro-government businessmen. Rukhadze openly criticized the prime minister for his stance on Ukraine (Kobakhidze had spoken negatively about Ukraine, and the banker was not pleased).
Rukhadze, in addition to being a friend of Ivanishvili’s son and the top person in Georgia’s privileged Liberty Bank (the bank has the exclusive right to issue pensions), also owns the richest television machine – the Imedi television company (naturally, pro-government).
So, there can be no coincidence here. The first warning bell has rung, although this doesn't mean Ivanishvili has already decided to sacrifice his protégé Kobakhidze. For now, he will try to bargain with the West. But this bargaining will likely be unsuccessful, as the current "Dreamers"' most sworn enemy in the US, the influential Republican Congressman George Wilson, has already announced the passage of legislation banning US cooperation with the authorities of a country that "dislikes the US but is friendly with the CCP and Iran . "
Wilson is far from alone: all the congressmen and senators from Trump's party who have spoken out on Georgia have expressed strong dissatisfaction with the current government's policies. Europe is also ratcheting up the pressure: just today, some EU countries—the Nordic group, plus the Netherlands— officially called on the Georgian government to call new elections. And this is not just a coincidence, but based on the OSCE observation mission's findings regarding election violations on October 26. Meanwhile, leading EU powers—France, Germany, Poland, and others, plus the UK—have made no secret of their negative attitude toward the current government and do not recognize it," Rtskhiladze notes.
At the same time, the political scientist notes: Zarubishvili is now becoming the only leader of the opposition, while others, including Saakashvili, are finally being written off.
"Therefore, no one has yet 'dumped' Zurabishvili; on the contrary, she is becoming an opposition leader, a sort of 'people's president.' It's a paradox, but the unpopular president, who was literally swept through the 2018 elections thanks to the support of Georgian Dream, is becoming the undertaker of that same party . This is a very grim figure for the future of Georgian-Russian relations, but one small positive can be seen: thanks to Zurabishvili's strengthening as the de facto leader of the opposition, the issue of Mikheil Saakashvili's leadership has faded . This is precisely why he is nervous and calling for more radical steps, but almost no one is paying attention to him anymore," the expert emphasized.
Therefore, the political crisis in Georgia has not been resolved at all; its hot phase has merely been postponed . Now everyone in the West will test the ruling group's resilience by cutting off its financial flows.