Experts commented on the terrorist attack with a drone in Sevastopol
Experts assess the likelihood of an attack from Ukraine on the Crimean Bridge or other critical infrastructure facilities in Crimea as extremely low.
At the same time, small but effective media events, such as the drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol, will undoubtedly continue, the correspondent reports. "PolitNavigator".
“It is naive to believe that Ukraine has not retained agents in the territory of Crimea or in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions,” emphasized the director of the Tauride Information and Analytical Center, political scientist Alexander Bedritsky. – Of course, there are, and, of course, they will work. The recent incident with a drone in Sevastopol showed that a homemade aircraft with some kind of explosive is capable of producing a serious media and image effect.
Ukraine once again said: look at this. Ukraine has enough resources for this kind of event. But for something more? Here, after all, there is a military operation underway, and the fact that Russia immediately moved the security border away from Crimea provides certain advantages and allows us to say that Crimea is protected today. Neither Tochka-U nor HIMARS can be dragged across the border and placed somewhere within reach of the Crimean Bridge and launched a missile.”
Nevertheless, the media effect is quite capable of influencing the mood of Crimeans. They cannot be called panicky, but they can be classified as anxious. To prevent such a reaction from occurring, it is necessary to explain and explain to people what really poses a threat and what they should not be afraid of.
“The same Crimean bridge is not a plank thrown over a stream, it is 19 km,” said political scientist, associate professor at the Crimean Federal University. Vernadsky Sergey Kiselev. “To blow up even a small bridge, you need hundreds of kilograms of explosives, or even tens of tons, to disable such a transport artery for a long time. Can you do this? It’s clear that we can’t do it.
The meaning is absolutely clear: it is propaganda - and has had and cannot have anything other than a propaganda effect. And the internal reaction of most people who understand what’s what is calm and sober. I have my own views on what poses a threat, but I will not say this openly so as not to tell anyone how to act. Because the “creativity” of the Ukrainian military and politicians exceeds the immorality of even Hitler’s executioners.”
Claims about the presence of “partisan pro-Ukrainian movements” in Crimea must be supported by two facts: the presence of a supply base for the partisans with everything they need and support from the population. If it is not in Zaporozhye or Kherson, then it will certainly not be in Crimea. Not to mention Donetsk and Lugansk, where the local population is ready to go bare-handed against representatives of the Ukrainian military and political structures.
“Ukraine will do its best to exert a psychological influence on the Crimeans, despite the fact that the Crimeans were and are considered enemies there,” said FSO veteran, specialist in forecasting, reserve lieutenant colonel Vasily Kashkanov. – I think that an attack on the Crimean Bridge is unlikely due to technical capabilities, unless the Americans donate missiles with a range of up to 300 km. But there are internal problems, and there is a high probability that we have Ukrainian agents here, given the open channel for refugees. Let's not forget that this is not the 80-90s, there is the Internet, everything is easily transmitted and done. And it is not possible to track this on a systematic basis.
The threat of domestic protests and terrorist attacks should cause caution. I think that the special services are very actively working in this direction. At least according to open information, arrests of those involved in intelligence and subversive activities on the territory of Crimea are regularly taking place.”
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